Posted on 01/05/2008 7:12:27 AM PST by jdm
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Iraq war, once the key issue in the U.S. presidential election, is taking a back seat to the economy as voters fret over a possible recession and consider the improving security situation in Baghdad.
Polls in Iowa, the state that kicked off the process for choosing a president on Thursday, showed people pushing the war lower on their list of concerns after the surge in U.S. troops helped calm conditions in the country and a deteriorating economic situation at home drew focus to domestic woes.
"The entrance polls in Iowa certainly suggested that Iraq has receded ... as the central issue in the campaign, partly because the 'surge' is working and fatalities are down, and partly because the economy is getting worse," said David Gergen, a former adviser to Republican and Democratic presidents.
"The latest numbers on jobs that came out (on Friday) ... are being interpreted by investors as yet another sign we may be heading toward a recession," he told Reuters.
But political analysts said who benefits most could be a toss-up, with out-of-power Democrats possibly helped by a poor economy, and Republicans may be given a boost from improvements in Iraq.
Barack Obama, an Illinois senator who would be the first black U.S. president, won the Democratic contest in Iowa. Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor and an ordained Baptist minister, garnered the most support from Republican voters. Both upset the front-runners in their parties.
Those victories came a night before a report revealed the weakest U.S. jobs growth since August 2003, putting the economy center stage in the campaign.
Voters across the country have indicated a shift in their concerns and what they believe presidential candidates can do about them.
"The Iraq war made me sick, but that's beyond my capacity. The economy I can do something about," said Zewge Tegegnework, 70, an independent voter in Cincinnati who leans toward voting Democratic.
"I'm worried about the economy slowing down, people losing Social Security," he said.
LESS COVERAGE, DIFFERENT ISSUES
Worsening economic conditions are not the only factor that has drawn attention away from the war. The decline in deaths among U.S. troops led to less media coverage of the Iraq issue, shifting the debate to issues such as health care, the subprime housing crisis and immigration.
"At this moment in time, the daily accounts (of the war) have subsided, the daily concern over 'Is the situation getting worse?' has eased off, and people are beginning to think about things closer to home," said Tom Rosenstiel, director of the Project for Excellence in Journalism at the Pew Research Center, which tracks media coverage of the war.
So what does that mean for candidates?
"It means that domestic issues, from what we can tell today, are likely to play a relatively greater role in determining votes," said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who argued Iraq's diminishing role in the election would be positive for Republican candidates.
"Anything that drives Iraq down the agenda helps Republicans because a majority of Americans think it was a mistake to have gone into Iraq in the first place, and there's very little that Republicans can say at this point to persuade people otherwise," he said.
Gergen said the focus on the economy would help Democrats by taking away the Republicans' claim to strong economic stewardship under President George W. Bush.
Whether the economy slumps or not, Iraq is not going away. Obama generates thunderous applause when he tells audiences he aims to bring troops home within 16 months if he wins the White House.
Once the nominees are chosen, the Iraq issue is likely to return to the forefront, analysts said.
"The conversation will change once we have nominees and the issues then sharpen up," Gergen said. "It's (Iraq) going to be a very sharp issue of division between the two parties."
To Reuters it's a done deal. Why even have an election?
I thought a week ago the story was that Pakistan was reminding voters that it’s still a dangerous world. What happened?
Iraq and the economy are winners for the Republicans.
It was Democrats who insisted on goosing the lending practices that have artificially pumped the housing bubble. Republicans should hang it around their necks in 2008.
But they won't
Though right you are, Republicans can't. The Race Card would be played - BIG TIME.
ping
How so?
Rooters sees no war, remember who owns them. Focusing on the economy is good for their owner.
I could spend all morning producing reams of past minutes from Paul Sarbanes on the Seante banking committee, to name but one culprit. Or Harkin, or Durban, or Levin.
The suburbs that surround DC are chock full of McMansions, with miles of square footage inhabited by government employees and clerks who somehow have Hummers in the driveway, yet can’t afford to furnish their palaces, all of which have 40-year mortagages and interest-only notes. Now they all have foreclosure signs on their vast front yards.
Its a joke.
Nominee Obama + recession = President Bloomberg?
That the problem, out side Democrat districts run by Moveon.org stoodges, Iraq never was "the issue" for the bulk of the American people. That the whole reason the Democrat Congress dropped a 50% approval rating to 11% in the 1st 6 months of 2007 and why it has stayed down there ever since, is they have tried to make it all about Iraq. Democrat pulled a bait and swith in 2006 on the American people. Democrats ran away from Iraq in the 2006 Campaign. In fact, Iraq isn't even in their "06 for 06" campain plan. They ran on a vauge "reform" agenda. Then when they got to DC, they did nothing but fight with Bush about Iraq. Bush's approval rating, low though it may be, has be rock steady, Democrat's approval numbers plummented to about half of Bush's in the same time frame Outside the US Junk Media and Moveon.org meeting rooms, often the same thing, the issue has never been Iraq.
How so?
http://www.hud.gov/offices/fheo/lending/index.cfm
Read about “Fair Lending”. Refusing to loan to high risk borrowers, many of which are minorities, was considered racially discriminatory
And I could point out that they have been running the Senate Banking committee for less than a year, while this mortgage crisis has been years in the making. So where were the Republicans during the 12 years they were running the show?
Its a joke.
It is indeed. But one that both parties share the blame for.
Are you saying that has been in place only for the last 12 months?
What’s impressive to me is that DESPITE the housing slowdown the economy is actually still quite strong. I’m pretty sure there will be overall growth the next quarter, and although the economy certainly is effected by housing, it’s not the catastrophe people make it out out to be. 5% unemployment is historically pretty low.
A recent poll showed that a huge % of Americans are actually satisfied with where they are currently. So there’s this weird disconnect between the reality and this worry over an economic collapse (vs a bit of volatility and a very healthy correction) that has been created and fed by the media.
The frustrating thing to me is that Republican candidates will likely just go along with it. I believe it was Nixon who said that if the people imagine a huge impassable river, the solution is not to try and convince them that there is no river at all, but instead to build them a bridge.
Folks, we are FAR from an economic crisis, and this should be a very good issue for the Republicans as the last eight years for the most part have been some of the best economically we’ve had. It needs to be pointed out that the best way to turn this somewhat-of-a-slowdown / correction into a real economic problem is to get someone in office who will raise taxes.
Well, my $0.02 anyways. :)
I am amazed how you Leftists continually seek to blame the consequences of your side’s actions on everyone else but yourselves. Democrats are the one squealing for the Govt to step in an fix this mess. Freepers are merely pointing out to you people that it was your "Fix" of an earlier supposed problem; that CREATED the mess in the 1st place
Good find!
Free Republic is good at these things.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.