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Posted on 01/04/2008 7:09:22 AM PST by .cnI redruM
A companion piece to “How Iowa Might Even Matter.”
Unfortunately, Iowa mattered. The Huckabee win in Iowa will force the GOP left on economics and foreign policy as a result and the world may well become a more dangerous and poorer place because of it. I offered the following possible scenario as a possible Iowa outcome that matters.
10 point Huckabee Win - The GOP candidates now are forced to the left on economics and foreign policy and to the right on social issues. See my earlier comment about Howard Dean and his post New Year’s libations. Stick a big, fat fork in two out of the following three: Rudy, Fred or Mitt.
To the quibblers, 34-25 was not a 10 pt win. To the rational, it might as well have been. No one can walk away from last night and say, boy, if Mitt had just said this, that or the other and tipped the bartender better, he really would have scored. Huckabee won. As a direct result of that win, Huckabee’s philosophical doctrines are at least temporarily ascendant in the GOP.
That is why Huckabee’s victory is so utterly pyrrhic. Huckabee had no qualms with raising the state taxes in Arkansas 47% during his governance. He had no problem with substantially increasing the size of the government. He had no difficulty denouncing fiscal and foreign policy conservatives with the type of political language you’d expect out of John Edwards after John Cougar Mellencamp had finished warming up the crowds in Des Moines.
By extension, Mike Huckabee’s supporters don’t significantly care much about these things either. Therefore, a Huckabee win signifies a GOP that no longer remembers 9-11 or cares enough about defeating international terrorism to keep my young child safe. A Huckabee win signifies a GOP that no longer remembers that a worker’s pay check belongs to the worker, not an autocracy of socially pandering civil service do-gooders.
This philosophical shift is why Susan Estrich would party at a Mike Huckabee inauguration. Howard Dean’s philosophical beliefs ride in Mike Huckabee’s cockpit. The religious social concerns are just a Potemkin. Once the all-encompassing leviathan gets its tentacles into everything, Planed Parenthood and the Transgender Alliance will be writing your children’s school textbooks and only need to bide the time until Huckabee’s Presidency goes on to that great big bully pulpit up in the sky.
A victory for big government is always a victory for Big PC. George W. Bush’s execrable Prescription Drug Medipander Act brought us the S-CHIP fiasco. Compassionate Conservatism and Prosperity with a Purpose are way stations along the road to serfdom. Those dead guys smiling on Huckabee’s victory are Gus Hall and Eugene Debs; not Russell Kirk or Ronald Reagan.
Paradoxically, Iowa also clarified what Conservative America has to do to reclaim its soul and not sell out to 4 to 8 more years of George W. Bush’s failed domestic agenda and expansions of the welfare state in the form of a Huckabee Presidency. I also predicted that an overwhelming Huckabee victory would stick a big, fat fork in two of the following three; Mitt, Rudy and FDT. If Huckabee is going to get turned into Huckabeen, the fork needs to go into Rudy and Mitt.
Of the candidates not serving as Governor of Arkansas in the recent past, only Fred Thompson and John McCain have much of anything to celebrate after Iowa. Fred got unlikely and unintentional help from the slime merchants at CNN’s Politico. By writing Fred’s obituary, they lowered his expectations down to Ron Paul level. Thus, Fred’s “accomplishment” of getting 13% of the Iowa vote doesn’t quite stink as badly. Fred wins by dodging the bullet. That can work once or twice in Primary politics.
Last night’s Iowa caucus did have its positive side. When projecting what could happen with the Evil Jackass Party, I offered up the following scenarios.
A 3rd Place Showing By Hillary. Edwards and Obama in a tight finish. This makes the Dems actually have to conduct a Primary Season and worse yet, could make them have to do serious work at their convention. This is what I’d most like to see befall the So-Called Democratic Party.
Either Edwards or Obama win by a double-digit margin. Hillary lands in 3rd. Whoever wins the Iowa Caucus will go into New Hampshire with the same shot at an early knock-out that Hillary had in Iowa. Expect lots of self-serving rhetoric about the need for a change and the value of bringing in new blood.
I’m honestly not quite sure if Barack Obama won by enough to say the double-digit scenario would apply. He clearly won. Eight percent could be within rounding error of a crushing victory. It may be enough to start Hillary Clinton on her journey to what Roger Waters of Pink Floyd describes as.
“The Fletcher Memorial Home for Colonial wasters of life and limb.” – Pink Floyd, “The Fletcher Memorial Home.”
Hillary Clinton’s defeat, if terminal, was one of the worst days for anachronistic feudalism since King John got made to sign the Magna Carta at sword point. Bill Clinton looks like the comeback kid that two angry parents are sick of having boomerang. While I’m not stupid enough to believe Barack Obama’s philosophical beliefs indicate much in the way of evolution beyond Walter Mondale’s, seeing the cynical, amoral Clintonian juggernaut become the yard car of the Democratic Party’s motor pool went down as smooth as a shot of Baileys Irish Cream.
Having talked the smack; I can’t quite issue Hillary a death certificate until she actually withdraws. She seems to be as determined as she is genuinely evil. She will not quit until beaten, and may still go into New Hampshire with a large lead. If she does, Barack is in trouble, and will need John Edwards to politely drop out and endorse him. If her lead in New Hampshire now goes the way of Mitt Romney’s commanding lead in Iowa, we may finally be rid of that national disgrace known as the Clinton Family.
great line !
thank you.
You do really good gonzo.
thanks.
You’re welcome! (Please ping me on your stuff. Thanks.)
POOR FRED. I VOTED FOR HIM. HE IS THE RIGHT GUY. I KNOW THIS SYSTEM. I CORRECTLY STATED EARLY ON AFTER MAKING TWO SWEEPS THRU ROMNEY HQ THAT IT REMINDED ME OF THE BOB DOLE EFFORT—FLAT.
FRED IS STILL RUNNING RADIO ADS HERE IN IOWA! FRED YOU GOT POUNDED HERE—PULL THE ADS.!!!
HE DID START HERE ABOUT A YEAR LATE, AND YES, THAT DELAY PROJECTED A NON-INTEREST. HE WILL DEFINITELY NEED EVERYTHING TO BREAK HIS WAY NOW—OR HE IS FINISHED OUT OF NH.
Huckabee’s win is Pyrrhic because, as far as I can tell, his supporters didn’t challenge the Romney/McCain establishment for delegates or officials.
Really? Is the GOP as badly establishmentarian as the Democrats’ Super Delegate system?
Not really.
But Huckabee supporters lacked the savvy to follow up an emotional but non-binding straw vote with any demand for proportional representation of delegates or for the chair and secretary.
That is interesting, although the number of delegate being discussed is such a small number. However, if Huckabee ends up needing 15 delegates for a majority, he might kick himself if the delegates from Iowa don’t vote per the split.
I think CNN showed that in their projected distribution he’d end up with 17 out of the 40 delegates, with Romney getting 12 and Thompson and McCain each getting 3.
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