Posted on 01/04/2008 7:09:20 AM PST by .cnI redruM
A companion piece to “How Iowa Might Even Matter.”
Unfortunately, Iowa mattered. The Huckabee win in Iowa will force the GOP left on economics and foreign policy as a result and the world may well become a more dangerous and poorer place because of it. I offered the following possible scenario as a possible Iowa outcome that matters.
10 point Huckabee Win - The GOP candidates now are forced to the left on economics and foreign policy and to the right on social issues. See my earlier comment about Howard Dean and his post New Year’s libations. Stick a big, fat fork in two out of the following three: Rudy, Fred or Mitt.
To the quibblers, 34-25 was not a 10 pt win. To the rational, it might as well have been. No one can walk away from last night and say, boy, if Mitt had just said this, that or the other and tipped the bartender better, he really would have scored. Huckabee won. As a direct result of that win, Huckabee’s philosophical doctrines are at least temporarily ascendant in the GOP.
That is why Huckabee’s victory is so utterly pyrrhic. Huckabee had no qualms with raising the state taxes in Arkansas 47% during his governance. He had no problem with substantially increasing the size of the government. He had no difficulty denouncing fiscal and foreign policy conservatives with the type of political language you’d expect out of John Edwards after John Cougar Mellencamp had finished warming up the crowds in Des Moines.
By extension, Mike Huckabee’s supporters don’t significantly care much about these things either. Therefore, a Huckabee win signifies a GOP that no longer remembers 9-11 or cares enough about defeating international terrorism to keep my young child safe. A Huckabee win signifies a GOP that no longer remembers that a worker’s pay check belongs to the worker, not an autocracy of socially pandering civil service do-gooders.
This philosophical shift is why Susan Estrich would party at a Mike Huckabee inauguration. Howard Dean’s philosophical beliefs ride in Mike Huckabee’s cockpit. The religious social concerns are just a Potemkin. Once the all-encompassing leviathan gets its tentacles into everything, Planed Parenthood and the Transgender Alliance will be writing your children’s school textbooks and only need to bide the time until Huckabee’s Presidency goes on to that great big bully pulpit up in the sky.
A victory for big government is always a victory for Big PC. George W. Bush’s execrable Prescription Drug Medipander Act brought us the S-CHIP fiasco. Compassionate Conservatism and Prosperity with a Purpose are way stations along the road to serfdom. Those dead guys smiling on Huckabee’s victory are Gus Hall and Eugene Debs; not Russell Kirk or Ronald Reagan.
Paradoxically, Iowa also clarified what Conservative America has to do to reclaim its soul and not sell out to 4 to 8 more years of George W. Bush’s failed domestic agenda and expansions of the welfare state in the form of a Huckabee Presidency. I also predicted that an overwhelming Huckabee victory would stick a big, fat fork in two of the following three; Mitt, Rudy and FDT. If Huckabee is going to get turned into Huckabeen, the fork needs to go into Rudy and Mitt.
Of the candidates not serving as Governor of Arkansas in the recent past, only Fred Thompson and John McCain have much of anything to celebrate after Iowa. Fred got unlikely and unintentional help from the slime merchants at CNN’s Politico. By writing Fred’s obituary, they lowered his expectations down to Ron Paul level. Thus, Fred’s “accomplishment” of getting 13% of the Iowa vote doesn’t quite stink as badly. Fred wins by dodging the bullet. That can work once or twice in Primary politics.
Last night’s Iowa caucus did have its positive side. When projecting what could happen with the Evil Jackass Party, I offered up the following scenarios.
A 3rd Place Showing By Hillary. Edwards and Obama in a tight finish. This makes the Dems actually have to conduct a Primary Season and worse yet, could make them have to do serious work at their convention. This is what I’d most like to see befall the So-Called Democratic Party.
Either Edwards or Obama win by a double-digit margin. Hillary lands in 3rd. Whoever wins the Iowa Caucus will go into New Hampshire with the same shot at an early knock-out that Hillary had in Iowa. Expect lots of self-serving rhetoric about the need for a change and the value of bringing in new blood.
I’m honestly not quite sure if Barack Obama won by enough to say the double-digit scenario would apply. He clearly won. Eight percent could be within rounding error of a crushing victory. It may be enough to start Hillary Clinton on her journey to what Roger Waters of Pink Floyd describes as.
“The Fletcher Memorial Home for Colonial wasters of life and limb.” – Pink Floyd, “The Fletcher Memorial Home.”
Hillary Clinton’s defeat, if terminal, was one of the worst days for anachronistic feudalism since King John got made to sign the Magna Carta at sword point. Bill Clinton looks like the comeback kid that two angry parents are sick of having boomerang. While I’m not stupid enough to believe Barack Obama’s philosophical beliefs indicate much in the way of evolution beyond Walter Mondale’s, seeing the cynical, amoral Clintonian juggernaut become the yard car of the Democratic Party’s motor pool went down as smooth as a shot of Baileys Irish Cream.
Having talked the smack; I can’t quite issue Hillary a death certificate until she actually withdraws. She seems to be as determined as she is genuinely evil. She will not quit until beaten, and may still go into New Hampshire with a large lead. If she does, Barack is in trouble, and will need John Edwards to politely drop out and endorse him. If her lead in New Hampshire now goes the way of Mitt Romney’s commanding lead in Iowa, we may finally be rid of that national disgrace known as the Clinton Family.
True. But he's got one shot left in his own gun, and that's SC, where his numbers currently are just as bad, and Huck's are just as good. If Fred can't win SC, say buh-bye.
True that. CNN kept him on life support. Not even Lou Dobbs and Wolf Blitzer would be stupid enough to make that mistake twice.
Who wrote this tripe?
IF Obama gets the Socialist [Dims] Party nod it is a certainty that his middle name will never be uttered by the MSM.
However the fact that a candidate named OBAMA can be elected 8 years after 911 is surreal!!
Which is why it's been so stupid that Republicans have been rooting for him to be nominated.
Hillary will never concede - she will have to be forcibly ejected!
The Republican Party is a coalition of various factions. There's the libertarians, the Federalists, the free-enterprisers, the Constitutionalists, the supporters of self-defense rights, and last but not least, the Social Conservatives/Christians/Evangelicals. Many people are simultaneously members of two or more factions. Broadly speaking, the factions can be abstracted into two: Anti-socialists and Social Conservatives.
A socially liberal GOP Presidential nominee who favors abortion-oon-demand and gay marriage would so alienate the social conservatives that they would at best stay home on election day. A more likely result would be the destruction of the Republican Party as we know it (think of the Whigs in 1860.)
A socialist GOP Presidential nominee who favors progressive tax and spending policies would so alienate the anti-socialists that they would at best stay home on election day. A more likely result would be the destruction of the Republican Party as we know it (think of the Whigs in 1860.)
Mike Huckabee is a socialist. So he is anathema to the anti-socialist factions of the GOP. If he becomes the GOP nominee, the GOP coalition disintegrates. It's that simple.
I’m not sure if Huckabee’s win forced the whole party to the left, but I think that Huckabee’s win gave Rudy a boost nationally.
There are a whole lot of Republicans out there who would vote for anyone who could win, not just beat Hillary, but first beat Huckabee and McCain. The Iowa Republicans may have inadvertantly given Giuliani a boost.
That having been said, Rudy lost significantly last night. Just saying “I didn’t try!” doesn’t excuse a loss to Ron Paul by more than 5%. Rudy has to come up big (at least a 2nd place) in either NH or MI or he won’t be alive when Florida, NY,NJ and CA roll around.
I heard on FOX that Rudy is still ahead nationally and a rejection by the Iowa voters is seen as a plus, rather than a negative. That’s not exactly what they said, but that was the idea.
I guess we really still don’t know. 2 months ago, Mitt Romney didn’t see last night coming.
Hopefully, over the next two months the rest of the voters will take a closer look at Huckabee’s stance on issues, rather than his self-proclaimed Christianity. I can’t see the majority of Republicans being taken in by his “do unto to others” rhetoric, but the success of the mega churches scares a lot.
This from the WSJ Opinion Journal:
But one wonders whether his newfound supporters would really say that if they took a close look at his policies. With increasing frequency, Mr. Huckabee invokes his faith when advocating greater government involvement in just about every aspect of American life. In doing so, Mr. Huckabee has actually answered the prayers of the religious left.
Hunter may yet surprise us even before New Hampshire. Because he has campaigned in Wyoming, which has a race before New Hampshire, and no one else is campaigning there.
Wyoming to Hold Overlooked GOP Caucus Before New Hampshire
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1947693/posts
Then there’s New Hampshire. Hunter’s already there while everyone else wraps up in Iowa.
Tancredo tried that strategy, throwing his own supporters under the bus and falling in with Romney. Today he realizes it was a poor move.
Tancredo sees loss in Huckabee winhttp://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1948252/posts
Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.
Thompson’s January Dropout contract went up about 25 points last night after Iowa.
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 40.0 98.9 60.0 103 +24.8
If Fred drops out, the support would finally go to Hunter. He’s more conservative than Fred anyways.
Um...someone who has looked at Huckabee’s record for about 3 minutes?
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