Posted on 01/03/2008 6:09:51 AM PST by jdm
The Politico predicts that Fred will drop out of the race if he doesn't come up with a strong showing in Iowa this evening. Fred replies that it's just a nasty rumor to discredit him in upcoming states:
Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.
Thompson’s campaign, which last spring and summer was generating fevered anticipation in the media and with some Republican activists, has never ignited nationally, and there are no signs of a late spark happening here in Iowa, where even a third-place finish is far from assured.
This reality—combined with a fundraising drought—left well-connected friends and advisers of Thompson Wednesday evening predicting that he will pull the plug on hype and hope before the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary.
Fred replied:
"That is absolutely made up out of whole cloth," said the former U.S. Senator from Tennessee.
Thompson said a rival campaign was likely the source of that rumor. "Can you imagine such a thing in politics?" he asked.
Two items have sparked these rumors. First, the surprise announcement that Thompson needed a blogburst to run ads in Iowa exposed the campaign's bare warchest. They need a strong finish in Iowa to convince donors to keep the flow of money up to a high enough level to buy ad time in South Carolina, where Fred has more strength. Second, Fred Thompson himself oddly raised expectations by saying he needed a second-place finish in tonight's caucuses, a scenario that seems rather fantastic. A strong third would help, but not if the candidate himself believes he needs to place second or first.
However, the rumors are most likely false. In this primary race, almost everyone should be able to make it to February 5th, when 23 states will go all at once. Why drop out within just a few weeks of the Super Tuesday primaries, where a couple of states could keep the candidacy viable? No one candidate has enough draft to force anyone else out.
In this case, Fred has a shot at South Carolina, at least for a second-place finish. He could also do well in Florida, although that seems less likely at the moment. He has no reason to bail out of the race before then, and the next week will be the Super Tuesday primaries. Unless he really runs completely out of cash, he has no compelling reason to withdraw.
So the story probably reflects nothing but rumor and speculation, although it's hard to understand why competing campaigns would bother with directing any of it towards Thompson. At least for now, he isn't anyone's bete noir. It looks more like the uncontrollable urge to commit punditry on the eve of the first real test of the candidates. (via Rick Moran)
CQ was an early Thompson supporter, and then backed off. I’m not sure if he lost interest or was trying to maintain objectivity.
LOL, keep dreaming.
Dead on! All these predictions including my own are just wishful thinking. We are in uncharted waters here not having an incumbent VP running. This thing can go anywhere, it’s very exciting.
Keep the faith my friend, and pray for Fred, it seems the prayers from most of us are getting to GOD’s ear.
Does anyone think Fred might pull off an upset in Iowa today or is it a foregone conclusion that Huckabee/Romney wins?
Romney is the only candidate that has a chance of winning both IA and NH. Fred will take 4th place in each state (maybe 3rd in IA, but McCain is beating him in most polls)if he’s lucky. That’s not an opinion.
Why would any candidate drop out after South Carolina with Florida and super Tuesday a week away. You might have bit off little too much of the apple here.
Romney has spent millions and is in a dead heat with a guy with no money to speak of. Even if he wins he looks weak if he comes in second then this thing is thrown wide open since Huckleberry isn’t doing all that well in NH.
Lets not cite that buffoon zogby for anything,please
Generally, in the last poll before an election, the pollsters leave off the sauce and give good numbers. Nobody remembers earlier polls, but everyone compares the final poll to the actual results. Zogby’s no different. In the final poll he had to cover his butt or look like the hack he is. He said he saw a late surge, which Fred also said he saw in his internal polling, and somebody in the MSM panicked.
Which Montgomery County does your graphic refer to? There are several in the U.S.
Absolutely right. That interview by Jane Skinner yesterday THE DAY BEFORE THE CAUCUS EVEN BEGAN was shameful. She said to Fred "We don't wanna talk about any premature death here but.." and went on to ask him when he would drop out of the race.
I'm through with FOX News.
This is no joke: I turned on this morning to hear some caucus coverage only to see Megyn Kelly talking about a Viagara pill for women.
Do we pick our candidates because of “Inside Baseball” campaign crap, or do we pick based on record, positions, and our GUT FEELING ABOUT THEIR TRUSTWORTHINESS? I support Thompson and will do so during the primaries, and would like to be able to trust the rest of these candidates, but Thompson is the only one I’ve seen concentrating on his vision for the future, and not trying to trick people into voting for him. I can’t even put Dr. Evil into that camp because of his Spambots.
From this
http://cmsimg.theleafchronicle.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?
to this
will get this
http://theleafchronicle.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage
Which is in Tennessee. Clarksville, which is in Montgomery County
I'm tired of those sex pill commercials, but:
Lets have pill commercials for men and women in the same ones! Just to see how that goes over.
“Generally, in the last poll before an election, the pollsters leave off the sauce and give good numbers. Nobody remembers earlier polls, but everyone compares the final poll to the actual results. Zogby’s no different. In the final poll he had to cover his butt or look like the hack he is. He said he saw a late surge, which Fred also said he saw in his internal polling.”
Erm, Thompson was down 1% (from 12% to 11%) in the last Zogby Iowa poll....
Fred bump!
From Zogby:
“On the Republican side, Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, gained a bit on Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. Huckabee cumulative three-day tracking total equaled 28% support among likely Republican caucus–goers, while Romney moved up from 25% to 26% support. Arizona Sen. John McCain remained in third place at 12%, tied with former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who has seen a late-breaking surge.”
Fred comfirmed it, saying his internal polling had him up 4 points in 2 days, but he didn’t give exact numbers.
And from Zogby the day after the quote you cite:
“With a Huckabee surge and a Romney dip, the former Arkansas governor opened up a six-point lead over his nearest rival. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson also lost a point”
Mostly it’s all just noise, there are so many polls you can pick out selective good points for any candidate. Paul’s ‘surged’ as much as Thompson in the same period, Huckabee was up three points in the last poll, etc, etc.
The point is not the exact number. Zogby’s commentary, which I quoted above, was all over the ‘net and the news. I even heard it on the local news here in Florida, which had ignored Fred up until yesterday. Then a few hours later, somebody played a dirty trick on Fred.
I am merely pointing out the sequence of events.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.