My guess 
Posted on 01/03/2008 6:09:51 AM PST by jdm
The Politico predicts that Fred will drop out of the race if he doesn't come up with a strong showing in Iowa this evening. Fred replies that it's just a nasty rumor to discredit him in upcoming states:
Several Republican officials close to Fred Thompson’s presidential campaign said they expect the candidate will drop out of the race within days if he finishes poorly in Thursday’s Iowa caucus.
Thompson’s campaign, which last spring and summer was generating fevered anticipation in the media and with some Republican activists, has never ignited nationally, and there are no signs of a late spark happening here in Iowa, where even a third-place finish is far from assured.
This reality—combined with a fundraising drought—left well-connected friends and advisers of Thompson Wednesday evening predicting that he will pull the plug on hype and hope before the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary.
Fred replied:
"That is absolutely made up out of whole cloth," said the former U.S. Senator from Tennessee.
Thompson said a rival campaign was likely the source of that rumor. "Can you imagine such a thing in politics?" he asked.
Two items have sparked these rumors. First, the surprise announcement that Thompson needed a blogburst to run ads in Iowa exposed the campaign's bare warchest. They need a strong finish in Iowa to convince donors to keep the flow of money up to a high enough level to buy ad time in South Carolina, where Fred has more strength. Second, Fred Thompson himself oddly raised expectations by saying he needed a second-place finish in tonight's caucuses, a scenario that seems rather fantastic. A strong third would help, but not if the candidate himself believes he needs to place second or first.
However, the rumors are most likely false. In this primary race, almost everyone should be able to make it to February 5th, when 23 states will go all at once. Why drop out within just a few weeks of the Super Tuesday primaries, where a couple of states could keep the candidacy viable? No one candidate has enough draft to force anyone else out.
In this case, Fred has a shot at South Carolina, at least for a second-place finish. He could also do well in Florida, although that seems less likely at the moment. He has no reason to bail out of the race before then, and the next week will be the Super Tuesday primaries. Unless he really runs completely out of cash, he has no compelling reason to withdraw.
So the story probably reflects nothing but rumor and speculation, although it's hard to understand why competing campaigns would bother with directing any of it towards Thompson. At least for now, he isn't anyone's bete noir. It looks more like the uncontrollable urge to commit punditry on the eve of the first real test of the candidates. (via Rick Moran)
We can ONLY Hope!
I think FRed's our guy.
Who did Captain’s Quarters endorse?
Did he help or hurt Thompson?
It really doesn’t matter whether the story is true or false. Unless lightening strikes very soon, Fred will be gone and endorsing McLame in less than two weeks.
Thanks, Fred! Why would he drop out after only one frickin’, crazy state anyway?
Some were saying this could have been from the Romney camp?
It’s very upsetting, wherever it came from, but Thompson brushed it off by saying that it’s not a big surprise in a political campaign. Still, this rumor is getting reported as fact in many places, including on the morning show here on KABC AM in L.A.
Frustrating.
My guess
“Thanks, Fred! Why would he drop out after only one frickin’, crazy state anyway?”
And one where only 10% of the eligible voters are even expected to vote.
This is a preemptive strike either by the media or a rival campaign to take Fred out before he can build more momentum. It is not a coincidence that yesterday Zogby saw a surge by Fred and this nonsense appeared a few hours later. Somebody’s afraid.
I hope Iowans don’t fall for campaign dirty tricks.
“Thompson said a rival campaign was likely the source of that rumor. ‘Can you imagine such a thing in politics?’ he asked.”
The Mittwits strike again. They do as their leader does - lie and defraud.
Oops, I posted that to the wrong thread. LOL. Need more coffee.
OK, so I am a dummy. What’s the big deal about Iowa? They are first? They have good restaurants for photo ops?
Maybe he has some internal polls that say this is possible (Heck in Iowa anything is possible, just ask President Dean), but if he would not have raised hopes of 2nd place, himself, this would be a non story. Early primaries are more about exceeding expectations than they are about actual numbers. If John McCain, for example, would finish 3rd that would raise his expectations since he didn't even compete in Iowa.
For Fred a 3rd place finish has been the "status quo" for a long time (I believe before the Huckabee surge expectations were 2nd place finish), so for him to finish in third would be no harm, no foul. Yet he himself raised the bar over the weekend to say it would be 2nd place.
Tonight will be interesting.
But, if I wasn’t informed I’d support him because of these unfair tactics by the mainstream media. It’s just bad ethics for the media to try to influence Americans choices of candidates!
***This is more evidence that FRed might do well in Iowa. Media are scared of him. FOX even lies and distorts him. It’s obvious he can be a winner for conservatives, or else why would the media pump up RINO libs like McCain, Huckabee, Mitt, Rudy, RuPaul...
I think FRed’s our guy.***
I will laugh if he comes in first place in Iowa. According to the polls though, I shouldn’t expect this.
But, I’ve been to Iowa. Those who are conservative, are very conservative. I think there might be some surprises tonight.
I think a lot of those folks are a lot smarter than the media gives them credit for being... after all, you know, they are “only farmers”... right?
LOL
The fact that Fred’s foes here on FR are repeating the lies ad nauseum isn’t helping.
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