Posted on 12/31/2007 11:16:22 PM PST by Maelstorm
Today's Iowa Polls of the two caucus races for president would seem to be good news for Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama. Both lead in the surveys of their respective races.
Huckabee appears to have fended off a last-minute surge from Mitt Romney. After a tight race for months, Obama seems to be opening up a last-minute lead over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
Huckabee, Obama maintain leads But no polls are predictors, and these surveys reveal:
* Undecideds exist. There are 6 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers and 4 percent of the Republicans who have no first choice. Their final decisions will be enough to change the order of finish in both parties. That fact alone should keep anyone from using these polls to forecast the outcome of the race.
* Last-minute developments won't be reflected. In 2004, 21 percent of those who showed up at Democratic caucuses decided who they'd support in the last three days of the campaign. This poll won't reflect those decisions because it came out of the field on Sunday night -- four days before people vote.
So, for example, it can't reflect the goofy press conference Huckabee held on Monday in which he promised not to run attack ads against Mitt Romney while producing them and showing them to reporters anyway. Right.
* Some support is soft. Of those who have decided on a candidate, 34 percent of the Democrats say they could still be persuaded to change their minds. Among Republicans, it's 46 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
If you live in Iowa get down to the caucus and vote, Iowa will start the process to cut the field quickly.
This is another reason Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter should not be held to polls with undecideds at 46%
I think all conservatives will do better than expected. Paul is a wildcard. I think he is going to find a segment of untapped support from renegade Democrats who can go and switch parties at caucus time. I’m not a Paul supporter but his money isn’t an illusion. I don’t think this race will be the deciding one this year. We are going to have to wait till at least South Carolina before a true front runner will emerge.
I’ll tell you one thing (well, maybe two) if either Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani are the nominee, the conservatives will stay home in droves and the contest will go to the Democrats.
I will also say that Paul is no alternative and if he runs third party, the Democrats will surely take the White House.
You are right on both counts. Rudy appears dead. Now the question is what effect would his endorsement have. I still think he has weight to throw around. Who does he endorse? I think the writing is on the wall for Rudy’s campaign.
Paul is very dangerous. If something happens and he comes in third in Iowa then we are going to see a huge mess. Paul’s supporters appear to be the most enthusiastic of all the candidates plus he is picking up a significant percentage of democrats. I have a gay friend who has absolutely fallen in love with him. Paul is also raising tons of money. I’m not going to vote for the guy but he is a wild card and could be a spoiler like no other. Nader it appears will not be around on the Democrat side to muddy the waters. The last thing I want is an independent candidacy by Paul.
Does anyone on FR support Huckabee?
I’ve been wondering that too. Since FR is the nexus of the conservative universe I would think more Huckaites would be in attendance. Maybe not. I certainly don’t understand his appeal. I like some of the things he says but his fiscal record is horrible. Neither he nor Romney are fit to be conservative icons. They are the clap on clap off conservatives.
If I'd know this party was about helping illegals and taking care of my health care, I never would have joined up.
Huckabee’s Cousin username dano1
Since you acknowledge that FR is the center of the conservative universe, I don’t know why you would expect Huckabee supporters to hang out here. He’s no conservative by any stretch.
Cousin? Well, that would explain those otherwise bewildering posts of his...
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