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The Coming Oil Crash: Why Oil Prices Will Drop
Portfolio | January 2008 | John Cassidy

Posted on 12/31/2007 8:57:38 AM PST by Clemenza

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To: am452
Wrong. He was active in engaging Deng as both a wedge against the Soviets, as well as increasing trade with mainland China.

He would be more aggressive in terms of security issues, but history shows that Reagan, from the time he was governor, was always in favor of increasing trade and foreign investment from abroad.

21 posted on 12/31/2007 9:16:17 AM PST by Clemenza (Ronald Reagan was a "Free Traitor")
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To: Clemenza

they’ve been saying this for roughly 5 years.


22 posted on 12/31/2007 9:16:53 AM PST by Brilliant
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To: Clemenza
So before you trade in your Cadillac Escalade for a Toyota Prius, think twice: $1.50-a-gallon gas might not be gone forever.

Something that has always bothered me was the rapidity of the rise in oil and gasoline prices. We see reasons listed such as peak oil, the rise of China and India, and so forth. But that doesn't explain why we went from $1.35 gas to $2.50 gas in a matter of a few months, well before Katrina and Rita disrupted Gulf rig operations.

It appears to a non-expert like me that this market has been manipulated by forces outside of supply and demand. Maybe this is a big "DUH!" to most people, but if market speculators are holding prices up, then it looks like a bubble just waiting to pop to me.

Maybe wishful thinking on my part.

23 posted on 12/31/2007 9:17:47 AM PST by Hazwaste (Now with added lemony freshness!)
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To: Clemenza
Why, hillarybeast has already promised to lower gap prices if only we elect her...


24 posted on 12/31/2007 9:20:08 AM PST by geo40xyz ((Born a democRAT, Dad set me free in 1952: He said that I was not required to be a MF'ing democRAT))
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To: Moonman62

Due to disengagement from the Middle East once he is gone, or do you think our President is involved in a conspiracy to keep oil prices high? ;-)


25 posted on 12/31/2007 9:20:16 AM PST by Clemenza (Ronald Reagan was a "Free Traitor")
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To: Clemenza

Even if oil prices fall our government will fill in the decreasing prices with more taxes. We might have a Democrat in office that won’t stop that from happening.


26 posted on 12/31/2007 9:20:51 AM PST by BeckB
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To: geo40xyz

PRICE CONTROLS! Let’s bring back disco, herpes, and Jordache Jeans while we’re at it!


27 posted on 12/31/2007 9:21:11 AM PST by Clemenza (Ronald Reagan was a "Free Traitor")
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To: BeckB

Remember that poll of Americans that showed the majority wanted higher fuel taxes to pay for the deficit after Perot proposed it?


28 posted on 12/31/2007 9:22:02 AM PST by Clemenza (Ronald Reagan was a "Free Traitor")
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To: Paleo Conservative

Ping!


29 posted on 12/31/2007 9:22:20 AM PST by Clemenza (Ronald Reagan was a "Free Traitor")
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To: Clemenza
When experts claim that oil is running out, what they really mean is that cheap oil is running out.

This is what the alarmists do not understand.

30 posted on 12/31/2007 9:22:20 AM PST by ModelBreaker
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To: am452

I’m with you. I see it going over $3.25 this summer and it will stay there, then continue to creep up more each year. The more we just pay it, the more it will continue to rise. And, there is not much we can do about it. Even if you cut your driving as much as you can, and we do by combining all our stops into just one trip and not several trips, you still are going to drive a lot of miles.


31 posted on 12/31/2007 9:22:58 AM PST by RetiredArmy (Better prepare, come Nov 08, we have a Marxist Commissar President and Marxist Congress.)
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To: Clemenza
Most people ignored Yamani's warning, but he was right. Between 1979 and 1983, oil consumption in the non-Communist world fell by 6 billion barrels a day, or more than 10 percent. Motorists bought smaller cars. Homeowners threw out their oil furnaces. Power stations switched to coal, nuclear fuel, and natural gas. And this all happened at a time when new oil fields in Alaska, Mexico, and the North Sea were coming onstream in a big way. The result was an excess supply of crude and a huge drop in prices. In 1986, the cost of a barrel of crude fell to as low as $11.

Typo. That should be 6 million barrels a day.

jas3
32 posted on 12/31/2007 9:23:03 AM PST by jas3
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To: Clemenza

This is the right logic (supply versus demand) (taking into account how long the oil will last (which is looking longer and longer every day.)

But demand continues to increase and supply is only barely keeping up.

The right question is “when will demand growth slow down or when will the current world-wide economic boom (yes boom) slow down?”

When will China’s economic growth slow down? When will the developing countries and the third world countries slow down (from the way they are catching up now)?

Things won’t change until there is some very large shock (or pollution causes China to retrench.) I am not predicting those things to occur any time soon.

Oil demand grows to 88.9 million barrels per day in September 2008 (about 3.5% per year) seems to be the best guess (and Oil will be priced over $100 per barrel.)

(Or the Saudis decide to put the breaks on new development again like they did in 1986 - possible but unlikely considering they are going full out right now and they seem to like $100 per barrel.)


33 posted on 12/31/2007 9:23:13 AM PST by JustDoItAlways
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To: xjcsa
Sorry, but that's just a silly argument. The price will drop when - and as far as - the supply/demand curve dictates that it do so. Did you read the article at all?

Yep I read the article but I tend to listen to Texas billionaire T Boone Pickens. I think he knows more than YOU and some talking head guy with some books on his desk. T BP has said we have reached "peak oil" now or in a few years and oil will never be significantly lower than what it is now due to China and India and the emerging countries. China's demand is only going to significantly increase.

34 posted on 12/31/2007 9:24:07 AM PST by am452 (Globalist: Converting the American people to the Democrat party since 1992)
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To: Clemenza

Heck, I’ll even throw in my copy of “88 reasons The Rapture will occur in 1988”...


35 posted on 12/31/2007 9:25:48 AM PST by null and void (Don't taunt the tiger...)
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To: Clemenza
Relatively little oil gets burned to produce electricity in the U.S.


36 posted on 12/31/2007 9:25:50 AM PST by FreedomPoster (Guns themselves are fairly robust; their chief enemies are rust and politicians) (NRA)
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To: RetiredArmy

I’m lucky in that I only have to drive four miles to work each way, and three miles for shopping. My six cylinder Sonata gets 22 per gallon in traffic and 30 on the highway, so I’m not as hosed as my coworkers who travel from 30-40 miles away.


37 posted on 12/31/2007 9:26:01 AM PST by Clemenza (Ronald Reagan was a "Free Traitor")
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To: Moonman62
Oil prices will drop once W is out of office.

So what is the connection? Are you saying traders have raised the price out of fear that Bush will attack Iran and once he is out and a dem is in then that fear subsides? Is that what you are thinking? Just curious.

38 posted on 12/31/2007 9:27:47 AM PST by plain talk
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To: Clemenza

50% drop puts the price at the high end of its value based on fundamentals... Its not an if, just when.


39 posted on 12/31/2007 9:28:24 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: Clemenza

I think oil prices are how W measures the strength of the economy. I think he takes care of his political friends, and his enemies are more than willing to help drive down the dollar and drive up the prices of commodities.

I remember how oil prices used to be partly blamed on hurricanes in the Gulf. No hurricanes the last two years and prices still went up.


40 posted on 12/31/2007 9:29:31 AM PST by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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