Posted on 12/28/2007 7:47:14 AM PST by jdm
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto looks more like a complex operation, planned carefully, with decoys and serious preparation. Eli Lake at The New York Sun reports that the murderers used one explosion as a feint to draw Bhutto into a sniper's line of fire. The killers had already prepared to shoot through her defenses:
American and Pakistani military leaders are seeking to account for what may be renegade commando units from the Pakistani military's special forces in the wake of the assassination of Pakistan's opposition leader and former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto.
The attack yesterday at Rawalpindi bore the hallmarks of a sophisticated military operation. At first, Bhutto's rally was hit by a suicide bomb that turned out to be a decoy. According to press reports and a situation report of the incident relayed to The New York Sun by an American intelligence officer, Bhutto's armored limousine was shot by multiple snipers whose armor-piercing bullets penetrated the vehicle, hitting the former premier five times in the head, chest, and neck. Two of the snipers then detonated themselves shortly after the shooting, according to the situation report, while being pursued by local police. ...
A working theory, according to this American source, is that Al Qaeda or affiliated jihadist groups had effectively suborned at least one unit of Pakistan's Special Services Group, the country's equivalent of Britain's elite SAS commandos. This official, however, stressed this was just a theory at this point. Other theories include that the assassins were trained by Qaeda or were from other military services, or the possibility that the assassins were retired Pakistani special forces.
"They just killed the most protected politician in the whole country," this source said. "We really don't know a lot at this point, but the first thing that is happening is we are asking the Pakistani military to account for every black team with special operations capabilities."
The operation described by Lake does not sound like a typical al-Qaeda operation. While their attacks have a certain level of coordination, they do not have much sophistication beyond bomb-making. They usually use fairly banal devices, while their hallmark has been multiple attacks synchronized within minutes of each other. Until now, their assassination attempts have not involved skilled snipers with the kind of weaponry or ammunition Lake describes.
If true, this would tend to implicate Pakistan's intelligence service, the ISI. They have long been suspected of sympathies towards the radical Islamists. In fact, they propped up the Taliban in Afghanistan until 9/11 changed the political calculations in that region. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to think that AQ could easily have infiltrated the ISI and plotted this operation using Pakistan's intel resources.
This would have allowed AQ another way to profit from the assassination. If this turns out to be true, then it would undermine Pervez Musharraf, both at home and abroad. It could also pit the army against the intel service, which also would benefit AQ by crippling Musharraf's ability to wage effective war against the radicals in Waziristan and the North West Frontier Province. Even with AQ claiming responsibility for the assassination, this infiltration puts everyone on notice that the national-security apparatus of Pakistan has been seriously compromised -- not an especially comforting thought when one considers the nuclear capability of Pakistan.
One final unsettling thought comes to mind as well. If the snipers really did blow themselves up after the shooting, and didn't use patsies to cover their tracks, then AQ must have more snipers available to them for other operations. Professional snipers are far too valuable to be discarded, and even infiltrated ISI units would be so casual about losing this scarce resource. If Lake's source has this right, the infiltration could be very extensive indeed.
ping.
duh
Interesting analysis..
AQ Infiltration Of Pakistani Intelligence A Probability, hayna?
No bullets:
Rawalpindi, Dec 28 ,IRNA — The doctors who tried to save the life of late PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto said on Friday that no bullet wounds were seen on her body and her death was due to some shrapnel which hit her with force on right side of the skull.
Dr Mussadiq Khan, Surgical Specialist Principal Allied Teaching Rawalpindi General Hospital, addressing a press conference here said that when Benazir Bhutto was brought to emergency unit, her eyelids were fixed with heart beats and pulse not recordable. He said all these conditions showed that there were some severe injuries which had stopped supply of blood to the head.
He said they immediately started their efforts to save her life. They started resuscitation process so that her heart could resume functioning, he added. He said the open cardiac massage process is the most advanced method of resuscitation.
http://www2.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-234/0712281808162406.htm
First, I agree that I did not hear Bhutto's car was hit from several directions.
Second, these 'snipers' must have been close for the police to have given chase. Real snipers hit from long distances outside normal security perimeters.
Third, if the 'snipers' were close, there is no special skill required.
According to the 911 Commission Report, the US believed Pakistani intelligence has been involved with al Qaeda since at least the late 1990’s. Richard Clarke made the comment that Osama would “boogie to Baghdad” if we informed Pakistan about attempts to get information on him in Afghanistan.
Also suspected: bears crap in the woods...
Seems new to me. The Getty Images photographer who witnessed the attack said that there was a thin guy who walked some 5-6 feet diagonally behind the SUV and shot her thrice.
The new reports from Pakistan govt denying any gunshot suggests a cover up. Al Qaeda does suicide bombs, they don’t do snipers, which are a typical Black Ops tactic. Even if Musharraf did not order this hit, he may want to protect any insider involvement.
I’ll wait to hear what US intel folks make of this.
Yeah, the photos from a guy named Moore that were shown by CNN seem conclusive that Bhutto died in part due to her own foolishness. Nothing indicated a very complex plot, instead, a jihadi got lucky while hanging entirely too close to a rally. It seems possible that the government security let the crowd get too close to the departing SUV and perhaps they did not have any handle on who was in the crowd and who was heavily armed (handgun and AK).
The questions being posed, was it AQ or ISI? is ISI infiltrated by AQ? may be false choices. ISI was the godfather of the Taliban, and apparently Taliban and AQ continue to have wide support from within ISI. Trying to distinguish between them may be actually to create distinctions where they do not exist.
What is probably more to the point is that Pakistan’s citizens widely support AQ and Taliban, and since the military and intel services are made up of Pakistanis inevitably this means widespread sympathy among not only military and intel personnel, but the government as a whole. Mush probably never knows for sure which of his security people are AQ and which are not, which of his bodyguards are AQ and which are not.
This is probably not a place where you can keep a secret from AQ, and it is not a place for the faint of heart. Your enemies are probably always in the same room with you.
Iranian news agency. Not sure what level of credence to give it.
IF true, why did Al Qeda claim credit?
They overreached....I think that the claim will be withdrawn before this is over.
Sorry Dog but that is pure hollywood. Much more plausible, as any serious player would tell Lake, is that Al Qeda bankrolled it and some Chechnyan' pulled the job. The notion that the bad guys cannot of done it because it was technically sophisticated is xenophobic nonsense.
So far we’ve seen:
1. “Official” hospital reports, relayed by The Dawn, with brain matter exuding from the left side of her head,
2. “Official” reports relayed via IRNA reporting right side head damage from shrapnel,
3. Early reports of an excplosion which missed Bhutto entirely,
4. Point source reports such as the Sun claiming multiple shooters and human bombs,
5. Various other accounts, at least one “official” story from Pakistan’s government, which claims both the bullets(?) and shrapnel missed her, but she hit her head on some sort of lever or handle inside the car.
Right now, it’s clear we just can’t tell who’s story is accurate.
Because we can’t tell who’s story is accurate, we have to assume that ALL possible suspects killed her, and take (limited) steps that cover all those possibilities.
If Al Qaeda killed her, they may have additional, future plans that benefit with her out of the way, attacks in the US, for example, which the US might want to respond to but find this a more difficult task with Bhutto dead.
If Musharraf had foreknowlege of this attack, and word of this gets out, I think you can reasonably expect the wheels to come off all across Pakistan, perhaps India, and perhaps other places as well.
If ISI or the military killed her, without Musharraf’s knowlege, he will have a hard time proving that, with possible results up to and including those resulting from an attack with his consent.
If yet another Pakistani faction killed her, without more information as to how and why, I am unable to predict results.
We’re at least one step removed from useful speculation as to who was behind the attack, because we don’t even have a reliable report regarding the exact cause of death, or the nature of her injuries.
Bush and other world leaders, as well as enemy or responsible factions may have more information to work with and will act accordingly.
But without a cause of death, we’re in the dark, and at the mercy of anyone with a story to peddle.
Until I know more, I assume Al Qaeda, ISI, Musharraf, the Taliban, and just about everyone else wishing her dead ALL killed her. That’s the best I think we can do at this point.
Plotting downstream results, at this time, is best achieved by watching closely what actually happens in Pakistan and elsewhere.
India has elevated military alert levels and halkted train service to Pakistan, Bush seems...pre-occupied, rioting continues across Pakistan, and the Pentagon says Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are secure, for now anyway.
Other news items:
Sunroof, not bomb or bullets, killed Benazir Bhutto ISLAMABAD, Dec 28 (AFP) - Benazir Bhutto was killed after smashing her head on her car’s sunroof while trying to duck,
and that no bullet or shrapnel was found inside her head or neck, interior ministry spokesman Brigadier Javed Cheema told a news conference on Friday.. He also said the ministry had
intercepted a phone call from a top Al-Qaeda figure congratulating a militant for the attack on Benazir Bhutto on Thursday, and added that there was “irrefutable evidence” the group was
trying to destabilise the country. “If she had not come out of the vehicle, she would have been unhurt, as all the other occupants of the vehicle did not receive any injuries,” Brig Javed
Cheema said. He said the post-mortem on Benazir Bhutto found her mortal wound came when she tried to duck after the bomber attacked. The bomber also apparently fired three times at
her but missed, Cheema said. When she ducked, she hit the lever of the sunroof of the car. “The lever struck near her right ear and fractured her skull,” Cheema said. “There was no bullet
or metal shrapnel found in the injury.” Cheema showed a brief video of the moments before the attack and the blast itself but it was unclear. He said intelligence services had intercepted a
call Friday from the man considered to be a top Al-Qaeda figure for Pakistan, Baitullah Mehsud, congratulating a militant after Benazir Bhutto’s death. He said there was “irrefutable
evidence that Al-Qaeda, its networks and cohorts are trying to destabilise Pakistan”. “We have recorded his conversation in which he is congratulating a militant for the attack,” Cheema
said, adding that Mehsud was also behind the suicide attack on Bhutto’s homecoming rally in October that killed 139 people. “He is responsible for most of the attacks that have taken
place in the country,” the spokesman said, calling for national unity “to eliminate the proponents of death and destruction who are trying to destabilise Pakistan.” Pakistani authorities say
Mehsud is based in the troubled tribal region of South Waziristan, where troops have been battling Islamist rebels since the fall of the Taliban in neighbouring Afghanistan in 2001.
Mehsud had until recently been described by officials as the top pro-Taliban militant commander in the region but is increasingly said to have links to bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda group. (Posted
@ 22:14 PST)
****************
Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif also at risk of attack: ministry ISLAMABAD, Dec 28 (AFP) - Pakistan’s interior ministry said Friday that opposition leader Nawaz Sharif is one of several
politicians under threat of attack following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. “There are other people who are under threat and whenever we receive information we pass it on to the
concerned people,” ministry spokesman Brigadier Javed Cheema told a news conference. Asked to give examples, he named Sharif as well as Maulana Fazlur Rehman and former ministers
Sheikh Rashid and Aftab Sherpao. (Posted @ 22:16 PST)
**************
No decision yet on Pakistan vote: PM Soomro ISLAMABAD, Dec 28 (AFP) - Pakistan’s government has not yet made a decision on whether to postpone national elections on
January 8 and was consulting parties on the next step, caretaker prime minister Mohammedmian Soomro said Friday. Asked whether the vote would be postponed, he said: “For now, the
elections stand as they were announced. We’ll take the next step after consulting political parties. I’ll be writing letters to them,” Official sources meanwhile said that the ultimate decision
would be taken by President Musharraf, who held a top-level meeting on Thursday and was expected to hold another meeting on Friday afternoon with political aides. “The government
will take the decision about whether to postpone the January 8 elections, or go ahead with them, only after consultation with all political parties,” the official said. The official said that if
the parties agree to it, the government would convene a conference of all parties next week to take stock of the situation. In so far as the other main opposition party, the PML-N, is
concerned, its president Nawaz Sharif announced the election boycott after an emergency party meeting on Thursday. However, Benazir Bhutto’s PPP has not yet made its position clear
on the issue. (Posted @ 18:10 PST)
********************
Nawaz Sharif says elections now would destroy Pakistan ISLAMABAD, Dec 28 (AFP): Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif said Friday if the government went ahead with
parliamentary elections next month, it will “destroy the country. If the government is adamant about holding elections on January 8, it is going on a self-destructive path which will not
only destroy the government itself but will also destroy the country,” he said. Wants Musharraf to resign: Mr Nawaz Sharif said the “number-one demand” of the nation was for President
Pervez Musharraf to resign as soon as possible. Mr Musharraf has to step down. This is the number-one demand of the nation today. And I can see that people want this to happen as
quickly as possible without any delay,” he told reporters. (Posted @ 14:20 PST)
***************
Pakistan forces get shoot-on-sight orders in Karachi: official KARACHI, Dec 28 (AFP): Paramilitary forces in Karachi were Friday ordered to shoot rioters on sight to prevent
unrest after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, a paramilitary officer said. “Rangers have been given orders to shoot on sight if they see miscreants indulging in anti-state activities,
attacking government property or setting on fire private property,” Major Athar Ali told reporters. He said the force had deployed 16,000 troops in Sindh, 10,000 of them in Karachi alone.
(Posted @ 14:10 PST)
****************
Six burnt to death as mob attacks factory in Karachi KARACHI, Dec 28 (AFP) - Six people were burnt to death when a mob enraged by the assassination of former premier
Benazir Bhutto torched a factory in Korangi industrial area of Karachi on Friday, police said. “The mob stormed into a leather factory, set it on fire and as a result six labourers were burnt to
death,” police official Latif Siddiqi told AFP. The workers had stayed in the factory overnight because of shutter-down strike and there was no transport to get them home. Siddiqi said
rioters also burnt down a car showroom and ransacked a medicine factory and a private hospital in the same area of the city. (Posted @ 22:18 PST)
***************
Nine including grandson of Wali-i-Swat killed in bomb explosion SWAT, Pakistan, Dec 28 (APP): Nine persons including Asfandyar Amirzaib, the grandson of Wali- i-Swat,
were killed and several others injured in an explosion after an election meeting in Mingora on Friday. Asfandyar Amirzaib, a former provincial minister and district Nazim, was a
pro-Musharraf PML-Q party candidate for a provincial assembly seat (PF- 81), police said. As he came out of the meeting, a powerful explosion occurred killing him and eight others on the
spot, witnesses said but the police confirmed death of only four persons including Manglore Union Council Nazim Bakht Mand Khan. It could not be confirmed whether it was a suicide
bombing or the bomb was triggered with a remote control device. (First Posted @ 15:00 PST; Updated @ 17:35 PST)
**************
Hyderabad police open fire on protesters, five hurt HYDERABAD, Dec 28 (Reuters): Police opened fire on protesters in Hyderabad on Friday, wounding five, as violent
disturbances over Benazir Bhutto’s assassination intensified, police said. “We opened fire when protesters got more violent and we failed to disperse them. Five of them have received
bullet wounds,” said a police officer. (Posted @ 14:45 PST)
****************
Bhutto’s killing: police in held Kashmir clash with protestors SRINAGAR, occupied Kashmir, Dec 28 (AP): Police in Indian-occupied Kashmir clashed Friday with hundreds of
stone-throwing demonstrators, protesting against the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, police said. Police used tear gas to disperse the demonstrators who took to the streets in Srinagar.
(Posted @ 14:05 PST)
***************
Pakistan police fire tear gas on protest RAWALPINDI, Dec 28 (AFP): Police fired tear gas Friday to try to quell protests in Rawalpindi, the city where Benazir Bhutto was
assassinated. An AFP reporter said a crowd was trying to march toward the office of former railways minister Sheikh Rashid, a close ally of President Musharraf, when police fired several
tear gas rounds on the crowd. The demonstrators also tore election campaign posters of Rashid. Police also fired tear gas elsewhere in the city. Armoured police vehicles were on patrol
throughout the city, the reporter said. (Posted @ 14:00 PST)
***************
Mob torches PML-Q office in Peshawar PESHAWAR, Dec 28 (AFP): A mob ransacked and then torched the office of the pro-government Pakistan Muslim League-Q party in
Peshawar on Friday, as anger boiled over after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. About 1,500 people paraded in the streets and then stormed the PML-Q offices, an AFP reporter said.
The crowd — many chanting “Bhutto is alive!” — set the office ablaze and also pelted a cinema with stones, the reporter said. He said police were keeping a low profile. (Posted @ 13:03
PST)
**************
Gunmen kill policeman in Karachi KARACHI, Dec 28 (Reuters): Gunmen shot dead a policeman in Karachi on Friday, a day after Pakistan Peoples Party leader Benazir Bhutto was
killed in a suicide attack in Rawalpindi, police said. “Unknown people gunned down a police constable in Lyari this morning,” said a senior police official. (Posted @ 09:30 PST)
**************
The above all source to The Dawn’s breaking news page, found here:
http://www.dawn.com/2007/12/28/welcome.htm
With police shooting and wounding rioters, police issued shoot on sight orders in Karachi, and rioters killing policemen, I’d have to call the two day trend “worsening”, with more significant levels of violence today than yesterday.
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