Posted on 12/25/2007 2:04:05 PM PST by NormsRevenge
SACRAMENTO — If you thought this year at the Capitol was ugly, wait till next year.
A year of unfulfilled expectations — during which lawmakers failed to produce hoped-for reform in health care, water storage and political behavior — will likely give way to legislative paralysis and partisan sniping in 2008 with lawmakers and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger focused on digging out of a projected $14 billion budget hole.
Forget The Year of Education Reform. The big ideas that Schwarzenegger wanted to chisel into his legacy are out for next year, political analysts predict, along with any other proposals that come with price tags.
"It will be the year of low expectations," said Garry South, a Democratic consultant who served under former Gov. Gray Davis. "And those probably won't even be met."
That doesn't mean the Capitol will be a dull place. Democrats are already grumbling about Schwarzenegger's announced plans to slice 10 percent off of every state agency's budget, and are saying it's time to start thinking about increasing taxes. Republicans, emboldened by this year's budget stalemate, may have even more reason to be obstinate in'08.
For his part, Schwarzenegger is still optimistic he can tackle an ambitious agenda, a spokesman said, though he's already told educators that, unlike health care, which the governor resolved to fix with one sweeping proposal, education reform will happen incrementally.
"He'll work with the legislative leaders to address the budget deficit," spokesman Aaron McClear said, "and continue to take on the big issues, like education, health care, water and political reform."
Beyond the budget deficit, which is big enough to stifle any ambitious agenda on its own, 2008 also presents a host of other political obstacles: a potentially bitter campaign over term limits, the distraction of lawmakers running for re-election, and a possible change in the Democratic legislative leadership. All of which suggest that any vestiges of Schwarzenegger's short-lived era of post-partisanship may be ground up in purely partisan politics.
Another issue confronting lawmakers is that they haven't finished this year's work. The special sessions on health and water will spill over into next year — along with the divisiveness they've already engendered. Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez's hopes of getting health care reform done before the Feb. 5 vote on term limits hit a snag when Sen. Don Perata, D-Oakland, refused to take up the issue until a fiscal analysis of its impact on the budget is completed.
But the most pressing issue will confront lawmakers as soon as they return to the Capitol on Jan. 7: a fiscal emergency declared by the governor and a special legislative session to address the current fiscal year's $3.3 billion revenue shortfall. They'll have 45 days to act on a plan, which could provide a hint of which way the meat cleaver will fall on the 2008-09 budget.
Republicans say they don't take pleasure from the prospects of cutting programs, but do believe the crisis could work to their favor.
"Nobody likes to come in and swing an ax knowing there will be people affected," said Assembly Minority Leader Mike Villines, R-Fresno. "But I do believe this is an opportunity to live within our means."
Schwarzenegger has also said that the looming crisis could provide an incentive to fix the budget system. Fixing it, however, means different things to different people. Democrats would like to eliminate the two-thirds requirement to pass a budget, while Republicans would prefer to put in constitutional hurdles to spending.
The problem is exacerbated because the state is running out of creative solutions — or what Republicans have called gimmicks. In the 1991 budget crisis, for example, when the government operated without a budget for 61 days, then-Gov. Pete Wilson was able to tap into a number of revenue sources that are now off limits, such as transportation funding, the pension fund or the Williamson act that protects agricultural funds.
When Schwarzenegger entered office, he used bonds to borrow the state out of its huge debt — also no longer an option.
This year, legislative leaders have already ordered lawmakers to refrain from pursuing bills that require spending or tax cuts.
"Democrats ran for office to solve problems, and you can't solve problems without money," said Steve Maviglio, Nunez's chief of staff. "It's very frustrating for members knowing they have only six years to get something done and are essentially cut off at the knees. It'll be another summer of discontent if everything lines up the way it looks like it's going to."
Amid all this is the very real possibility of turmoil at the top that could breed even more discontent and instability.
If Proposition 93, the measure to loosen term limits, fails, the scramble to succeed term-limited legislative leaders Nunez, D-Los Angeles, and Perata will burst into the open and might even undercut budget negotiations.
"The fallout of a defeat of Prop. 93, which is quite likely, and all the jockeying that will come with it will create an unstable environment," said political consultant Frank Schubert, president of Schubert Flint Public Affairs. "There's a natural tendency to fill a leadership vacuum as soon as possible."
Most observers say they expect the Senate to move more slowly than the Assembly in replacing its leader, partly because Sen. Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, doesn't appear to have a serious competition for the post and is willing to allow Perata to leave on his own terms. There are, however, at least five Assembly members maneuvering to replace Nunez.
Many predicted that the two leaders will be allowed to keep their posts until at least after the budget is resolved. But others say that ambitious lawmakers, no matter how green they are in negotiating budgets or maneuvering through crises, won't hesitate to make the move as soon as the two leaders assume lame-duck status.
The history is that when the Speaker is on his way out, someone will move quickly and members will tend to want to shape campaign strategy and raise money for the fall.
"We could be headed for a period of great instability," he said, "which doesn't lend to significant accomplishment."
Even if Nunez and Perata hold on to their power through the budget season, they will have the thankless task of saying no to their constituencies and fending off what they fear will be Draconian cuts in human services and other programs.
"I'd anticipate you will see significant reductions in Gov. Schwarzenegger's proposed budget," said Jean Ross, executive director of the California Budget Project, an organization advocating for poor and middle class. "But, I would hope to see a balanced approach that looks not only at cuts, but potentially for new revenues. It's time we have an honest conversation with voters about the reality of the state budget."
A difficult conversation in what might very well be an especially difficult year in Sacramento.
He started right out by stealing the vehicle tax from the counties. The vehicle tax is a local property tax revenue. When the state was flush, it lowered the rate and back filled the counties for the loss. The legislature had it set up so when the surplus was gone, the vehicle tax would revert back to normal levels. Aanold reinstated the lower rate without backfilling the counties. That is when we lost our local stabilizing reserves trying to make up for the sudden loss. Many counties had to lay off personnel and cut back on hours. They finaly set up a deal where counties could borrow on the state’s promise to restore the renevue in arrears. Legislation was passed to prevent the state for doing that in the future.
The transporattion bond money was raided by the state. We struggled for several years waiting for the revenues. Supposed to get them next year, I believe.
Right now, state mental health is stiffing the counties for medi_cal reimbursement. They paid part of the money, but our little county is still more than a $million in payment arrears.
The Williamson Act is another one they always threaten us with. The legislature passed a law lowering property tax on open space ag land and backfilling the counties for the loss. If they halt subvention payments, the county is stuck with the reduced revenues for the duration of the 10 year contract - automatically renewed each year. We are now putting in an escape clause in the contracts, the legislature has pulled this threat so many times.
“One thing I especially noticed - the word Texas is used alot, and with respect. Folks take pride in Texas ... simple unabashed no excuses pride.”
That was one of the first things I noticed upon moving here. You see and hear the name Texas everywhere you go. The state flag, the state outline and various symbols of Texas culture are also in great abundance here.
When I lived in California, I don’t think I ever once saw a California state flag flying in front of a single home, but out here, the Texas state flag waves with pride alongside the Stars & Stripes wherever you go. That is very telling about what kind of people live here.
I remember telling one of the kid’s playmates to stop leaving his bike outside on our lawn when he came to visit. He would just say, “yes Sir”, and move it to the back - but you know what? After a bit, I noticed kid’s bikes left haphazardly all over the neighborhood, and there never was one theft that I know of. Wow. Those bikes would be gone in a heartbeat in SoCal. Even in so-called “good” neighborhoods. What a difference.
When we bought our house out here, the previous owner only had a single key to the front door for us. She explained that they had lost all the others over time because they almost never locked the doors. That’s really hard to think with for a SoCal boy who is used to locking everything down.
We’re on the west shore of Lake Lavon in Lucas. That’s on the other side of the metroplex from you, but close enough by Texas standards .. LOL.
Glad to have a fellow conservative join us here. Lord knows there are also plenty of Libs moving here from Cali, but that’s another conversation.
For the life of me, I cannot figure out how the public hasn’t considered that the state budget deficit means the stupendously expensive proposed health care plan should be postponed. While I’d prefer that it never go into effect, it seems insane to pile another $14-15 billion program with uncertain funding onto an existing deficit of the same same.
Gee, I wonder what it would be like for real conservatives to run these states and the US?
I confess I haven’t had the chance to hear Simon speak. I’m familiar with his father and I know what he stands for.
He certainly could have used more advertising in the last weeks. But by that time Parsky had the big Country Club donors giving their money to Gray Davis as the probable winner.
Sacramento legislature consists of morons just like DC. They’re “ALL” clueless, power-hungry morons; case closed.
Very true, birdman, but a destitute feeling liberal dominated government like in 1976 just as the previous TAX REVOLT was triggered by Jerry Brown's and Gray Davis' government's liberal tax sucking and spending insanity!!!
Haven't you noticed the 30 year cycle in CA? I have! So much of what we witnessed in '76 & '77 is recurring, old man! Right?
Yes it is... you just haven't been thinking about it. This is how we tell the future by looking in the rear view mirror. It's not exactly duplicated, just to keep things interesting, but the demographics, and mass psychology bring about history repeating it'self with amazing regularity in smashingly similar ways... you just watch!!!
Arnold, wishing to be Santa Claus indefinitely, will wear out his welcome in '08 bigtime, just like Jerry Brown did in '78. Watchout for CA political landslides and mudslides to match mother nature's!!!
CA could very well become a very "red state!" Bright red!!!
He, like the bigger Republican monstrosity to follow, was an elephant trying to squeeze into a Democrat Donkey suit!!!
The RINO creative fiscal financing of CA's outrageous liberalism simply has to come under control. The people did it in 1976 with Prop 13 and they'll be doing it again, SOON!!!
You wait and see the recycling of history around these parts!!! (I know because this is a spreading, self-fulfilling prophecy)(pass it on)(find us a new Howard Jarvis & Paul Gann while you're at it)
I wish you were a CA voter!!! You have a way of grasping the TRUTH!!!
This story sounds familiar...with the exception of a RINO governor versus a liberal democrat. Not much difference, I know.
The Left Coast is starting to look more and more like Michifornia.
That's the likely outcome, and it will always be the case until Californians finally say "enough".
The "free lunch" state has got to realize that there is no such thing.
You'd think this might already be sinking in. If you travel outside of California, you'll find how much cheaper gasoline is, for example.
There is no free lunch. Californians might delude themselves into thinking so, but they pay in so many other ways.
But Cicero still has it right, because as Jessie Unruh once wisely said:"money is the mother's milk of politics!" That is even more true of CA than almost any other place on earth because campaigns are almost totally media dependent!!!
The Republican "Purple State" Party Bosses cut off Republican Party CA campaign dollars at the bidding of the Whitehouse so Simon's campaign fell just a wee bit short by design!!! Everybody knows, or should know this by now!!!
A government, of the government, by the government, and for the government.
But they are doing it to us....for the children of course."
What a powerfully, profound perception!!!
That statement needs to be adopted by the next concervative candidate to replace the Republican Judas we are suffering in the Governor's office at this time!!!
Yep, looks like that will be the most memorable thing "chiseled" into Arnold's legacy. I bet he's real proud.
Hittin'the sauce tonight? If only that would become true. :>)
Yeah, Simon was a wet blanket.
Good government depends on "REDUCE, RE-USE, RECYCLE!!!"
Ask that dumbass Jerry Brown! He started that phrase to be taught to CA chilrun instead of the regular "three R's!"
u talkin’ to me?
I was one Republican who kept telling the CA-GOP in private emails to not recall Davis. California’s problems were so insurmountable and systemic that it would have been best to keep Davis in office and then hang the state and its problems around the DNC’s neck like a millstone.
But the GOP wouldn’t listen. Noooooo. They wanted a highly visible governor.
And now, the GOP owns the problems that have no solutions - save one: the failure of the CA government.
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