Maynerd, that’s certainly a more reasonable question than saying “Huckabee...may not win a single state.” Perhaps you intended that merely as hyperbole.
But let’s narrow it down to something manageable and realistic. I think Huckabee would carry every state Bush carried in 2004, with the fight for Ohio being hard-fought as it was then.
In fact, current polling indicates that Huckabee is stronger in general election matchups in Ohio than either Giuliani or Romney.
RASMUSSEN: “In the presidential race in Ohio — whose electoral votes were just barely won by President Bush in 2004 — top GOP candidates have the edge when voters consider possible match-ups in 2008. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Senator Hillary Clinton of 44% to 42%...Giuliani also leads Senator Barack Obama 43% to 40%.
Hillary Clinton and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are tied 43% to 43%. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, newly ascendant in the Republican primary race, leads Clinton 44% to 40% and leads Obama 45% to 39%.”
Similarly, Zogby finds that Huckabee has the largest margin of victory over Hillary nationwide of any Republican candidate.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1393
And according to Rasmussen, Huckabee’s the only GOP candidate who leads Hillary in Arkansas, which reflects the much larger problem that if one of the two northeastern Yankee candidates with liberal records on abortion on “gay rights” are nominated, even some southern states will be at risk.
But as I said, let’s narrow it down. On the assumption you are not seriously so detached from reality as to believe that Hillary or Obama would win all 50 states, tell me which states Bush won in 2004 that you think Huckabee wouldn’t win in 2008?
And please state whether your analysis is merely speculation, or if it’s supported by some political expertise or experience on your part or scientific data (such as provided above).
Huckabee’s media honeymoon will end the day after he secures the republican nomination. After that he will be relentlessly attacked (fairly and unfairly) as an ignorant bible thumping Elmer Gantry demagogic hick, out of his depth and unsuitable for national office, a divider, not a uniter, etc. It will be ugly and many conservatives Limbaugh, Coulter, National Review, etc will not lift a finger to help him
It is inconceivably that Huckleberry will carry a state outside of Dixie. He hacked off too many Mormans with his religious bigotry to win UT or ID. He won’t carry VA, FL, GA, TX. He might carry AR, OK, AL, MS but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Bottom line Huckabee will be an electoral disaster. He is our Howard Dean and the democrats best chance for 60 seats in the senate.