Posted on 12/19/2007 9:07:05 PM PST by NormsRevenge
POLOKWANE, South Africa - The newly elected leader of South Africa's ruling party rose to power on the backs of trade unionists, communists and the poor. The challenge now is to satisfy his supporters without sacrificing the nation's economy.
Cynthia Tokwe, a maid in Cape Town, was typical of supporters of Jacob Zuma, the son of a maid. "He understands poverty," she said. "He understands us."
Zuma, whose political career has survived sex and corruption scandals, routed President Thabo Mbeki to win the presidency of the African National Congress at a divisive party convention Tuesday. Zuma loyalists also won all other top party posts.
This puts Zuma on track to become the next president of South Africa in 2009, when the constitution requires Mbeki to step down — but also presents him with a weighty agenda of priorities drawn up by the people who ensured his success.
Delen Ryn, a maid from north-central South Africa, said she wanted Zuma to focus on the economy, which she saw as the key to helping with "AIDS and jobs, because that is what most of the people are complaining about."
Frans Baleni, leader of the National Union of Mineworkers, said Zuma and his team "have a huge responsibility to mend the ANC, tackle the scourge of unemployment, poverty, inequality, HIV/AIDS and many others."
Zuma has been careful to make no promises and his first official pronouncements as ANC president, expected Thursday, are much anticipated, by both South Africans and investors in Africa's largest economy.
The ANC wields unmatched power in South Africa, governing with little opposition since Nelson Mandela won the first post-apartheid election in 1994. But many in this population of 48 million have not enjoyed the fruits of black majority rule and have become disenchanted.
The South African Institute of Race Relations recently released a study showing absolute poverty in South Africa has doubled since the ANC took power. Some 25 million South Africans live far below the poverty line and unemployment, which feeds crime and poverty, has grown to 27 percent or 40 percent, depending on whom you talk to. In addition, the country has the world's highest number of AIDS victims and one of the highest rates of murder and rape.
Zuma's election "is extremely important for ... every South African who wants fundamental change," said Zwelinzima Vavi, secretary-general of Zuma's most powerful ally, the Congress of South African Trade Unions, or COSATU.
While Vavi acknowledged Zuma was unlikely to shift ANC policies radically, he noted that even before Zuma's election, there had been a greater focus on unemployment and poverty and it was "not because of new leadership but because the ANC membership has demanded greater emphasis on those issues."
The deputy general secretary of the South African Communist Party, legislator Jeremy Cronin, said that although he did not expect dramatic change, "we see emerging inside the ANC a very significant shift to the left." The party's national chairman was elected to the ANC governing council on Zuma's slate Tuesday.
COSATU and the Communist Party have called for the nationalization of basic industries and moving faster to redistribute land to the poor.
Such demands from Zuma's allies make business leaders fearful despite Zuma's assurances that he plans no radical change from the more conservative policies espoused by Mbeki, which produced an economic boom and created a small black elite, but whose benefits have not trickled down.
Zuma's supporters say there would be a different emphasis, but not a policy overhaul.
"I think there won't be much change, only that he will concentrate more on the youth and the poor, who are those who suffer most from AIDS and unemployment," said Honoured Shobede, a delegate at the conference who is a municipal administrator.
The South African rand remained steady Wednesday. Standard & Poor's Ratings Services analyst Farouk Soussa attributed that to a sense the ANC would adhere to "prudent" market-oriented policies "aimed at alleviating socio-economic strains through faster growth."
Ibrahim Fakir, an analyst at the independent Centre for Policy Studies in Johannesburg, said Zuma "will find it very difficult to keep his promise to the poor because South Africa does not have the environment for rapid economic growth and job creation."
What is needed, according to Marian Tupy of the Cato Institute in Washington D.C., is labor reform giving the private sector freedom to hire and fire, a liberalization that would be strongly opposed by trade unions.
"Zuma will find (job creation) very difficult to do because he is beholden to COSATU for the presidency," Tupy said.
Political analyst Adam Habib of the University of Johannesburg argued Mbeki's government already has moved toward greater investment in health and social welfare, and that Zuma has only so much freedom to meet the demands of those who supported him.
"Firstly, you pay back those that you can in the framework of the policy agendas that are feasible," Habib said. "Then, like all good politicians, you forget about the others. That is what Mbeki did and that will happen if Jacob Zuma were to become president.
Soon, he said, Zuma would confront "the same dilemmas, the same contradictions."
___
Associated Press writers Celean Jacobson in Polokwane and Clare Nullis in Cape Town contributed to this report.
The ANC wields unmatched power in South Africa, governing with little opposition since Nelson Mandela won the first post-apartheid election in 1994. But many in this population of 48 million have not enjoyed the fruits of black majority rule and have become disenchanted.
The South African Institute of Race Relations recently released a study showing absolute poverty in South Africa has doubled since the ANC took power. Some 25 million South Africans live far below the poverty line and unemployment, which feeds crime and poverty, has grown to 27 percent or 40 percent, depending on whom you talk to. In addition, the country has the world’s highest number of AIDS victims and one of the highest rates of murder and rape.
South Africa heads into uncertainty with Zuma victory
Bate Felix
Wed Dec 19
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071219/wl_nm/safrica_anc_dc;_ylt=Auqqd9os0_WzUtvxTtjJU3S96Q8F
POLOKWANE, South Africa (Reuters) - South Africa faced deep uncertainty on Wednesday after the greatest political shake-up since the end of apartheid set populist Jacob Zuma on the road to leadership of the country.
Newspapers described Zuma’s stunning victory in an election for leader of the ruling ANC as a tsunami, and said the defeated party boss, President Thabo Mbeki, had been humiliated. The tabloid newspaper Sowetan carried the headline “Zunami Rules.”
Zuma not only defeated Mbeki but swept aside the entire old guard of the party, filling all top positions with his allies.
His victory was seen as ushering in a new era in Africa’s biggest economy, sweeping aside the monolithic centralism of the ANC and opening the way for more democracy and dissent.
Despite fears by some investors that Zuma, who is backed by trade unions and the Communist Party, will push the country to the left, markets remained unmoved and there was little change in the rand. Investors said they had priced in a Zuma win.
The trade union federation COSATU said it would not push Zuma to change policy, which was up to the whole ANC anyway.
Zuma has given no clear idea of his economic policies.
Economists said the ANC would have to quickly convince investors that the policies that have led to nine years of continuous economic growth would not change under Zuma, and say whether respected financial leaders would remain in office.
There was also concern that Zuma’s victory, splitting South Africa’s two most powerful jobs for the first time since apartheid ended in 1994, could paralyze decision-making.
Mbeki now has no position in the party that dominates the country and could become a lame duck for his remaining 18 months in power.
Zuma is the prime candidate to succeed him at the next election in 2009 unless he is ambushed by pending corruption charges.
South Africa can ill-afford a period of paralysis as it faces an AIDS crisis, one of the world’s worst crime rates, and poverty still blighting the lives of millions of blacks more than a decade after apartheid ended.
Mbeki’s downfall was caused to a large extent by anger in the ANC rank and file at what they saw as neglect of these problems, particularly poverty, while he pursued business-friendly economic policies.
CORRUPTION CHARGES
Adding to the mood of uncertainty is the threat of charges against Zuma over an arms buying scandal, which could possibly see him jailed before he succeeds to the presidency.
“We expect a lengthy period of political noise and uncertainty in South Africa, characterized by tensions within the ANC and between the party and the government,” said investment bank Goldman Sachs.
Prosecutors said this month they had new evidence that could lead to renewed charges against Zuma.
The ANC’s traditional discipline, which critics called a Stalinist relic, was replaced by noisy barracking at the party conference from young militants representing millions of black South Africans who feel left behind as Africa’s biggest economy has boomed.
The 65-year-old Zuma, an ethnic Zulu, has made a remarkable comeback after setbacks that would have buried most politicians.
Apart from the corruption scandal, he was acquitted of rape in 2006. Evidence in that case, including his admission that he showered after sex with an HIV-positive family friend to avoid infection, tarnished his reputation.
But these issues have not undermined Zuma’s popularity in a traditional, male-dominated society. “I am happy Zuma won because under his rule women will have fewer rights,” said Johannesburg parking attendant Brilliant Khambule.
Zuma backers urge new direction for South Africa
Mariette le Roux
Wed Dec 19
POLOKWANE, South Africa (AFP) - Newly elected ANC leader Jacob Zuma came under early pressure from his leftist backers Wednesday to steer South Africa on a more pro-union course after toppling arch rival Thabo Mbeki.
A day after his stunning victory over President Mbeki in the contest to lead South Africa’s ruling party, Zuma was keeping his counsel and met with senior advisors to plan his next move after a bitter election contest.
While all sides played down the idea of major policy changes, analysts said the result could herald realignment in a party accused of neglecting its working class base while governing since the end of whites-only rule in 1994.
Zuma’s stunning victory was partly based on growing disillusionment with the failure to eradicate poverty in the 13 years since apartheid, with the South African Communist Party (SACP) and unions among his most prominent backers.
“The new leadership’s top priority must be to make the second 10 years of freedom a decade for the workers and the poor,” Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi told reporters Wednesday.
Added SACP secretary general Blade Nzimande: “We are confident that we will have Comrade Zuma’s ear. That doesn’t mean we will agree on everything.”
The pro-business Mbeki would have wanted unfettered control in his last two years as head of state before he is constitutionally obliged to stand down, but the humiliating defeat will force him to deal with a rival centre of power.
“The victory means that while Zuma will hold sway at party headquarters at Luthuli House, Johannesburg, Mbeki will continue to run the country from the Union Buildings, raising the prospect of a power struggle pitting party against state,” said the Business Day newspaper.
The Star declared Mbeki a “lame duck president” and warned his government “could be crippled and forced to account to the newly-elected leadership”.
Expectations that Zuma would flesh out his future plans for the party were quashed when he cancelled a press conference as delegates met behind closed doors to discuss the make-up of the 86-strong national executive committee.
However COSATU, a junior member of the governing alliance which has been one of Zuma’s most steadfast allies, hoped Zuma would chart a different course than Mbeki, whom it accuses of leading aloofly and autocratically.
“We expect him to be loyal to the decisions of the ANC. But our hope is that he will lead an ANC that will better engage with us,” said Vavi.
He acknowledged Mbeki’s remaining time in office “will be a difficult period ... that requires to be navigated very carefully”.
“The two most powerful individuals in the country have contested against each other — one won and one lost. One will have the mass power, proven, and one will have lots of institutional power,” he said.
“There ought to be consideration ... some form of a protocol, a way of ensuring there is better synergy between the government and the ANC.”
Analysts had predicted Zuma’s camp might push for early elections but another key ally played down such as a prospect.
“We are not anarchists. He (Mbeki) is the president of this country,” said Fikile Mbalula, president of the pro-Zuma ANC youth league.
The backing of such groups was key in the victory for scandal-plagued Zuma, who still faces the prospect of being charged with corruption.
The 65-year-old was sacked by Mbeki as deputy head of state in 2005 when his financial advisor was jailed for fraud. Later Zuma stood trial for raping a family friend less than half his age.
Though acquitted, he was widely ridiculed for testifying he had showered after sex with his HIV-positive accuser to prevent infection.
Given the ANC’s large majority in parliament, Zuma would normally almost be guaranteed the job of state president in elections in 2009 after his victory in the party contest.
But he faces being charged with corruption after losing a recent bid to have a series of search warrants declared illegal.
It’s too late at night - I thought it said “High Expectations of Huma”...
A few pieces on South Afrika
Will it go the way of Zimbabwe?
Would be a real shame as the country is resource rich but unfortunately, also ideologically challenged and likely to become more so.
lol.. a bump’s a bump. ;-)
HOORAY!
Since South Africa went into the toilet, my interest in anything that happens there also resides here.
The media also had “high expectations” for Mugabe and Mandela before they sent their respective nations into a vortex of poverty, brutality, rape, and death.
It could be worse; they aren't moslem yet.
They just shit in their own nest. They haven't (de)evolved enough to think of shitting in other people's yet.
Wait until they become moslems. It''s just a matter of time.
I give them five years.
“.....investors in Africa’s largest economy.”
“Investors”? One would have to be stark, raving mad.....
S.A. is cooked. This is what the liberal left hoped
to do and they got it. It’s a tragedy if not criminl that liberal ideaology always lead to dictatorship and disaster.
Chalk this up to a victory for American liberalism
and a defeat for humanity.
The age-old problem in Africa...how to balance an utterly socialist/welfare state political agenda with a capitalist economic system. No other country in Africa could make it work. And I don’t think that Zuma, of all people, has the ability to get even close to making it work.
Lets script this out. Zuma has shown tremendous ignorance on how you acquire AIDS...actually having unprotected sex already with a woman who had AIDS...so I’m guessing that he will be showing the illness within the next twelve months...and on some kind of medication for the remainder of his limited career....plus passing around the disease as much as possible.
You can also figure that the Zimbabwe episode will be repeated in South Africa...with significant results by 2012. A major exodus of the white minority will occur by 2015, and the slide down will be a long episode. I don’t see much of a country in operation after 2030...with civil war very likely by that point.
If you are referring to Zimbabwe-style land grabs by 2012, I don’t know how it will play out. But statistically, since 1994 the number of commercial farmers in South Africa has declined from around 84,000 to around 15,000, of which only about 13,000 produce anything that leaves the farm. The way by which it happened may have been different, but the ultimate result is the same, farm ownership and basic food production is way down already.
I'm cancelling my photo safari to Kruger National Park next year. I'm getting too old for that 23 hour air trip anyway.
My friends in Jo-Berg tell me that you don't dare go downtown after 5 PM.
Thanks for the post Norm.
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