Posted on 12/19/2007 5:42:22 PM PST by BenLurkin
If you're like me, the bluster and grandstanding associated with big congressional actions make you want to roll up the windows, crank up the radio, and tune out the whole circus. But the mammoth energy bill finally passed by Congress and signed by President Bush is something consumers should pay attention to. Among other things, the new law will directly affect the kinds of cars on the market in a few years--and what buyers pay for them. Some of the big changes that automakers and consumers will both have to contend with:
Surprisingly tough gas mileage standards. The requirement to raise corporate average fuel economy (the quaint-sounding "CAFE," in Beltway-speak) is an aggressive target that will force adjustments by automakers and consumers alike. Getting to a fleetwide average of 35 miles per gallon by 2020, from the current standard of 27.5 mpg, will require annual fuel-efficiency increases of about 3.3 percent. New technology and market competition always drive some gains in efficiency, but over the past couple of decades in the United States, it's amounted to less than 1.5 percent per year. Even in Europe and Japan, where gas costs more and cars get better mileage, annual gains have been 2 percent or less. Environmentalists are disheartened by other aspects of the energy law, such as its lack of support for renewable energy, but on gas mileage it has teeth. Our overall fuel economy numbers will still be lower than elsewhere, but the improvements will be dramatic.
More technology, sooner. One way to get better mileage is to build smaller engines--but in a market where buyers are used to performance, that's not going to win any new customers. So automakers will accelerate development of under-the-hood technologies that make engines more efficient and help improve mileage without a trade-off in performance. "This will unleash torrents of engineers all over the world," predicts one auto executive. Expect to see more hybrids, diesels, turbochargers, and other advanced gizmos that squeeze 1 or 2 additional horsepower from a gallon of gas. And get used to new automotive initials like CVT (continuously variable transmission), VVT (variable valve timing), and DOD (displacement on demand). One feature likely to become commonplace: The automatic start-stop technology--or "golf cart" effect--that's standard on hybrids. Shutting down the engine during stops and running accessories off a battery instead of the gas engine can boost mileage by 10 to 30 percent.
Bigger window stickers. Expect to pay more for that technology, too. People on all sides agree that meeting the new standards will make cars more expensive. But by how much? Estimates range from less than $1,000 per car (diehard environmentalists) to a catastrophic $6,000 or more (General Motors). Internally, many automakers anticipate price increases in the range of $2,000 to $2,500 per car by 2020, in today's dollars. Costs will be phased in gradually, beginning with model year 2011 cars (mostly introduced in 2010), so that will mitigate the sticker shock somewhat. And better gas mileage will offset the costs further. But the typical new-car buyer who purchases a fresh model every three to five years will still feel a pinch. If prices rise too much, one perverse outcome could be fewer new-car sales, with drivers holding on to older, less efficient cars longer.
More potential problems. Automakers prefer to roll out new technology gradually, by introducing it on one or two models, gauging consumer acceptance, making sure it works, and marketing it more broadly if it succeeds. But with greater pressure to improve gas mileage, manufacturers are likely to hurry technology onto the market with less real-world testing. That could cause unforeseen problems. Air bags were a genuine safety breakthrough in the '80s and '90s, for instance, but it took several years of real-world crash data for researchers to figure out that they could also be harmful to kids and small adults, and make modifications. Lab testing and computer simulations can help pinpoint many problems, but the broader and faster the rollout of unproven technology, the bigger the risk of unintended consequences.
An end to horsepower wars. A Hemi V-8 won't seem quite as appealing to mainstream buyers if it comes with a hefty price premium, which is probably what will happen. Automakers will effectively be penalized for building cars that get poor mileage (Jeep Grand Cherokee with 5.7-liter V-8 Hemi: 13 mpg/city), so they'll either have to charge a lot more to offset the added cost or they'll make fewer gas guzzlers. So expect fewer mass-market cars with a standard or optional V-8 and more four-cylinder engines in place of a V-6. Muscle cars won't go away, however, as long as there are enthusiasts willing to pay extra for them. And assuredly there will be, given that orders for the 425-horsepower Dodge Charger SRT8, which doesn't even arrive till next spring, have already driven the asking price from an MSRP of just under $40,000 up to nearly $60,000.
Fewer big SUVs, plenty of everything else. One scare tactic in the CAFE battle has been the automaker claim that Americans would all end up driving flimsy little econoboxes. Unlikely. One change that will probably happen is that GM, Ford, and Chrysler will build fewer big SUVs based on pickup truck frames, which are good for towing but heavy and inefficient. That's been happening anyway, as carlike crossovers such as the Toyota Highlander and GMC Acadia have become far more popular. But no other types of cars seem to be endangered, partly because automakers will each be assigned their own overall mileage target based on the mix of vehicles they already build: Manufacturers with a "heavy" mix, like the Detroit 3, will have to meet a lower standard, and those with a "lighter" mix, such as Honda, Volkswagen, and Nissan, will have to meet a higher standard. In other words, there will be incentives for automakers to keep building the kinds of cars they already produce--but to make them more efficient. Still, specific targets for each automaker and type of car won't be set until the spring of 2009, which means the circus isn't leaving town just yet. Turn up the volume.
I’ll just keep driving my 69 Mustang 428CJ. Taking it this week from Memphis to Birmingham and back.
How the Energy Bill Will Change ... the value of pre-law used cars.
Even including the heavier 24 cell battery vs 6 for 12v?
Twice the money for half the car.
I drive my old, full sized, relatively powerful van out to wellsite, laden with equipment and supplies to work as a geologist, finding oil right here in the U.S.A.
Look around out here, where the road is questionable, the weather often worse, and just getting here is often 'half the fun', and you will see a lot of 'giant vehicles' with 4WD and brush grilles, which are capable of hauling people and oilfield tools in and out of drilling locations. Ranchers and farmers in these parts drive similar vehicles to go similar places and do similar jobs, because they also need that much vehicle.
That simply isn't going to happen in a latter-day Yugo, or some tin can from China.
Not everyone lives or works on the printed side of the "Pavement Ends" sign, and sometimes "ego" has nothing to do with it.
But every time the city weenies water down the 4WD, the light truck becomes less suitable, and eventually we will have to drive something really big to get to work, because all the smaller stuff on the market won't cut it.
Welcome to the Union of Soviet Socialist States of Amerika. Big Brother Government is in control. Surrender all to your new god called liberal environmental nazi-ism.
All your bases are belong to us. Someone sent us down the bomb...
I have a 2006 VW Jetta diesel. 36 mpg in summer w/ A/C (in Phoenix, no less), 42 mpg in winter. One of the safest cars on the road. Replace all cars with diesel and efficiency will go up at least 10%. Combine w/ hybrid and you’re there.
Glad you enjoy helping sending billions to countries that hate us just to 'stick it to congress' and enjoy spending double what I do in gas every year.
Oh, get off of your soap box!
When this country decides it’s serious about energy it will begin an agressive nuclear power program, drill for oil in it’s own back yard and move out on a fuel-cell infrastructure.
Until then, it’s all politics and ideology!
I’m sure you’d recommend a hybrid with a 10 year break-even point!
No thanks!!!
And you have far more faith than I do that this country will ever get 'serious' about energy. I could care less about environmental concerns--I care only about #1) Lowering my OWN bill which means having a more fuel efficient vehicle #2 Sending less money to those countries that hate us which means having a more fuel efficient vehicle.
The next time you see a Viper and a “beater” vehicle side by side at a stoplight, it may be good for your soul to understand it could very well be me, and my friend, revving our engines and glorying in our own freedom of choice!
My beater has a vanity “veteran” tag plate.
The driver of that Viper is under no compulsion to apologise to you, or anyone else, for his/her personal choice of transportation.
Kia shmia!
I want reliability, quaility, and performance.
I looked seriously at the RAV-4, but it was just to flimsy inside. If fuel efficiency and my “OWN” bill were priorities, I may have accepted flimsy. They aren’t!
My car choices aren’t going to change the nation’s politics, and I’m not too worried about how many countries hates us.
I don’t have ANY faith this country will get serious about its energy policy until we’re neck deep in a crisis.
We’ll contine with such idiocy as turning food into fuel, wind, solar, and other pitiful, half-measures.
Meanwhile, I’ll keep buying quality, performance vehicles, once every 12 years.
Do you see any 12 yr old Kia’s on the road?
The folks that bought my “old” car will still be driving it in 5 years.
G Larry, you can always tell the socialist that come on FR, they always claim the government is right and they think we won't see through them!
rb22982, if you really want to get away from foreign oil you should be raising hell with the feds and state govs to get rid of the idiotic green laws and drill for oil here in the US, we have plenty of oil, but we must drill for it, it won't jump out of the ground by itself. We must also go nuclear if we want to lower engergy costs.
The lefties don't want energy savings, they don't want to save the environment and they don't really believe in Global Warming. They want the lower classes(us)to live like cave men, except without the cave or fire, can't burn wood you know, while they, the elite, enjoy expensive houses, vehicles and aircraft. After all, they can appreciate these things while those of the lower classes(us)really can't and don't deserve them. The bottom line is: They want to control us and this is one way they are doing it. Bush was a fool for signing this bill and our Republican senators and congresscritters who voted for this should be booted out of office as fast as we can do it.Anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot or blind or maybe both.
I am 100% absolutely in favor of opening up drilling, coal plants and nuclear power anywhere and everywhere and have written my congresscritter as much. But with our current congress, that isn't happening.
Kias/Hyundais made in the last 5-6 years are a lot better than the ones made 15 years ago. They have bar none the best warranties out there. Many individual Kia dealerships offer lifetime warranties and not just the 100k that it comes with. I had a Hyundai from a long time ago that was a total piece of crap and said I’d never buy one again (was given to me for free after a death in the family). A friend of mine purchased a Kia (Kia & Hyundai are basically the same thing, different car names if you didn’t already know) in 2001. Was quite surprised. Purchased one for myself early in 2005. Neither of us have had any major expenses on the car besides normal tune ups.
Who drives the biggest polluting cars? Usually it's the poor folks who just can't afford to drop a lot of $ on a shiny new hybrid wondermobile. We can't "conserve" our way to prosperity. The population of the US continues to increase and with it, more people who want cars. When is the last time you saw an illegal alien driving a new car? The vast majority they drive are pieces of junk.
I do. 117 mph in a quarter mile. :)
And I get 23 mpg on cruse control.
Keep the government out of our lives.... the market place w/take care of gas mileage.
When gas reaches $7.00 a gallon, I'll buy your Yugo from you.
You have your priorities, they are not mine.
Hey Congress! You can’t legislate physics!
(But you can build lots of nuclear power plants to provide the power we need for plug-in cars)
bump
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