Posted on 12/19/2007 9:24:40 AM PST by tcrlaf
John Edwards has leapfrogged over his rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and leads the Democratic field in Iowa, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll.
The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first or third.
Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.
Edwards holds a significant advantage, however, among a group who could be key to the first contest of the presidential year: those who say their first choice is someone other than the top three. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, candidates who poll less than 15 percent in the first vote at each caucus around the state are eliminated, and their supporters get a second chance to vote for another candidate.
Under both screens, Edwards leads as the second choice of these voters, with Clinton trailing Obama.
If Edwards is the second choice at this stage of those who intend to vote for other Democrats, then it would not be surprising if he produced a bit of a shock in Iowa, said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery.
Towery said the firm employed the same methodology with regard to asking the second choice of those who were voting for candidates other than those in the top tier, and obtained an accurate picture of John Kerrys lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at southernpoliticalreport.com ...
This is a repeat of the 2004 John Kerry disaster happening all over again.
The DNC spent MILLIONS to rig the Primaries to prevent this from happening, and no one seems to be talking about it!
THANK GOD the citizens of IOWA didn't allow the DNC to take away the first primary...
For Repubs:
"The Republican race is a duel between Huckabee, with 28 percent in this poll, and Romney, with 25 percent.
Rudy Giuliani, who has led most national polls of the Republican candidates, garnered only is in 6th place in this poll, behind Fred Thompson, with 10 percent, John McCain, with 9 percent, and Ron Paul, with 6 percent, in addition to the two frontrunners.
In the tighter voter screen, the frontrunners change places: Romney leads with 28 percent, to Huckabees 25 percent."
Democrats are in turmoil.
Before leaping to conclusions, I’d suggest we consider the validity of the polling data.
You are correct about Kerry in 04. But I have serious doubts the Breck Girl is leading in Iowa.
This poll takes into account voters for OTHER candidates, and who they will vote for if thier FIRST choice doesn’t make the Caucus cut....
This is IOWA, and the situation is a bit unique...
Do you really think Edwards would be a weaker candidate than Hil or Barack? I’m not so sure.
If the affair stories about Edwards are true, he will drop out way before becoming thenominee.
Fair enough. We’ll know in fifteen days.
Careful or Elisabeth ‘The Big E’ Edwards will stomp you, as soon as she finishes off the latest crate of lil debbie snack cakes.....
An affair might up his appeal among the donk constituency.
He could be our first ambulance chaser President.
Looks like I’m going to have to “stick by my race/sex” by voting for him since I’m a lawyer, too.
In which of John Edwards “Two America’s” do you the illegitimate kids in???
Depends on how good his momma’s lawyer is.
If this is true it may mean Demoncrats will be largely no-shows at the polls for the presidential election. If Edwards is in first place to me it looks like they can’t find anyone they like.
In May, I predicted an Edwards/Thompson race in ‘08.
It might happen.
Pollsters in turmoil is probably more like it...
Exactly. Pity he couldn’t knock up a guy. Then he’d represent pure Democrap virtue.



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"P-s-s-s-s-s-t-T! Hey, you... did you hear that Johnny Edwards has a girlfriend
and a LOVE CHILD!..."

“If Edwards is in first place to me it looks like they cant find anyone they like.”
I agree...
in 2004, Iowa Democrats couldn’t stomach the front-runners, Dean and Edwards, and “ALSO-RAN” John KErry surged at this same time...
We know how that disaster turned out for Democrats.
This from KOS:
“On Monday, the Edwards campaign recorded more e-mail sign-ups than almost any day in its history.
Over the weekend, the campaign was forced to add four new servers to handle all the web traffic.
Contributions are up online: Thursday and Friday, the two days after the debate, made for one of the highest 2-day totals they’ve seen in months. (He’s been ubiquitous on national television — morning shows and Sunday shows.)”
Or get knocked up himself, and then have an abortion. He’d be a Democrat God hence.
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