I expect that Romney will still pull out a win in Iowa, merely because of the years and millions of dollars he has spent. However, Thompson’s campaign has said that a strong third would leave them in a strong position, and second would be a huge win.
On the other hand if Romney doesn’t win big, I suspect he’ll be weakened because he didn’t win the expectation game (that’s why he’s currently trying to position himself as an underdog).
Fred’s been getting started for how long now?
Look here’s some interesting numbers I found. You have to go all the way back to 1980 to find a second place winner in IOWA who went on to win the nomination. Fred needs to Win to Win.
Republicans
2004- George W. Bush* (unopposed)
2000- George W. Bush* (41%) defeated Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%) and Orrin Hatch (1%)
1996- Bob Dole (26%) defeated Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%) and Morry Taylor (1%)
1992- George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
1988- Bob Dole (37%) defeated Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush* (19%), Jack Kemp (11%) and Pete DuPont (7%)
1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)
1980- George H. W. Bush (32%) defeated Ronald Reagan* (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%) and Bob Dole (2%)
1976- Gerald Ford defeated Ronald Reagan
Fred will show a strong third or possible second in the polls leading into the day of the election. Expect a strong second or possibly a mild first when the votes are counted.
That’s Fred.
Hopefully Huckabee’s surge will diminish and take Romney with it. And Fred will get the votes previously intended for these two RINOs.