Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Is a New Solar Cycle Beginning?
www.physorg.com ^ | 12/17/2007 | by Dr. Tony Phillips, Science@NASA

Posted on 12/18/2007 5:40:18 AM PST by Red Badger

The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven't been any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun's eastern limb on Dec. 11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

From SOHO, a UV-wavelength image of the sun and a map showing positive (white) and negative (black) magnetic polarities. The new high-latitude active region is magnetically reversed, marking it as a harbinger of a new solar cycle.

It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin?

It could be starting now.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude

The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.

Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.

The furious storms won't start right away, however. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception. "We still have some quiet times ahead," says Hathaway.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle?


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: agw; catastrophism; energy; globalwarming; gw; space; sun
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 101-117 next last
To: DManA

Here's one......

21 posted on 12/18/2007 5:54:07 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

[The furious storms won’t start right away, however. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception. “We still have some quiet times ahead,” says Hathaway. ]

I am not sure this statement is accurate. History has shown that cycles ramp up rapidly and decay more slowly.


22 posted on 12/18/2007 5:55:44 AM PST by dbacks (Taglines for sale or rent.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kittymyrib
I’m sure Albore and the UN “climate experts” will be able to fix this with a few trillion dollars from us tax turnips in the US of A.

....by lining their pocket with are hard earned money!

23 posted on 12/18/2007 5:56:10 AM PST by A. Morgan (Each terrorist we kill lowers the carbon foot print of the war.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

My calendar ends at the end of this month. You have no chance to survive make your time.


24 posted on 12/18/2007 5:56:33 AM PST by Fresh Wind (Scrape the bottom, vote for Rodham!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

We had better get a biopsy of that spot. It doesn’t look good....


25 posted on 12/18/2007 5:56:38 AM PST by KoRn
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dbacks
I am not sure when they date the model. But considering the average length of a cycle is 11 years, one can guess the beginning observations go back 250 years or more. But, in 1957-60 the sunspot numbers were the highest ever recorded. As a result, radio communications were very good at higher frequencies (14-70 MHz). In addition, the midwest was experiencing extreme winter snows/cold weather. The winters of 70-72 were also extremely bitter. Could it be that by 20012 we will be in the middle of a perceived Global Freezing scare? Wouldn’t surprise me at all.

lol thanks for the info, and your conclusion = ?, was just what I was thinking...

To: Red Badger Thanks. So if the Solar Cycle peaked in 2001 and is ending doesn’t that mean global warming is also ending? 18 posted on 12/18/2007 5:53:32 AM PST by Just mythoughts

26 posted on 12/18/2007 5:57:01 AM PST by Just mythoughts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

I sure as hell hope so - it’s freezing up here in CT!


27 posted on 12/18/2007 5:57:01 AM PST by Andonius_99 (There are two sides to every issue. One is right, the other is wrong; but the middle is always evil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: kittymyrib

Didn’t Al Gore invent solar cycles?


28 posted on 12/18/2007 5:59:49 AM PST by Clioman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Just mythoughts
No. Solar Cycle is primarily magnetic in nature. The Solar Energy output is nearly constant, with only minor variations.

From WIKI: Solar irradiance The total solar irradiance (TSI) is the amount of solar radiative energy impinging on the Earth's upper atmosphere. It is observed to vary in phase with the solar cycle, with yearly averages going from 1365.5 Watt per square meter at solar minimum, up to of 1366.6 at solar maximum, with fluctuations about the means of about +/- 1 Watt per square meter on timescales of a few days (see Figure 4, yellow and red curves). The min-to-max variation, at the 0.1% level, is far too small to affect Earth's climate, but it is worth keeping in mind that continuous reliable measurements of the TSI are only available since 1978; the minimum and maximum levels of solar activity have been remained roughly the same from then to now, spanning cycle 21 through 23.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle

29 posted on 12/18/2007 6:00:39 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
I should be alright. The wife is post solar cycle.(I think that's what she called it)


Anyway ... she's a lot cooler now.

30 posted on 12/18/2007 6:01:23 AM PST by G.Mason (And what is intelligence if not the craft of out-thinking our adversaries?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: G.Mason

Beware of sudden outbursts of uncontrollable energy aimed in your direction......


31 posted on 12/18/2007 6:03:37 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

I don’t have time to read this now,just tell me........ are we going to burn to a crisp or freeze to death?

(I have to get my wardrobe ready)


32 posted on 12/18/2007 6:03:51 AM PST by Ditter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
"Attention all planets of the solar Federation
We have assumed control
We have assumed control"

33 posted on 12/18/2007 6:05:39 AM PST by -YYZ- (Strong like bull, smart like ox.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

Best car I ever owned.


34 posted on 12/18/2007 6:06:41 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks (ENERGY CRISIS made in Washington D. C.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
One enduring constant in my life is that there has always been a date for the end of the world to look forward to. One comes and goes, another one pops up.
Oddly comforting actually.
35 posted on 12/18/2007 6:08:38 AM PST by DManA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

Another one in Illinois.


36 posted on 12/18/2007 6:09:28 AM PST by DManA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Eric in the Ozarks

And GM, in their inFINITE knowledge, killed it...........


37 posted on 12/18/2007 6:09:39 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: -YYZ-

.......and the meek shall inherit the Earth.................


38 posted on 12/18/2007 6:10:12 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Just mythoughts
"Thanks. So if the Solar Cycle peaked in 2001 and is ending doesn’t that mean global warming is also ending?"

Yes, that is why the moonbats have started referring to it as "Climate Change".

39 posted on 12/18/2007 6:11:48 AM PST by Redleg Duke ("All gave some, and some gave all!")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Redleg Duke
Yes, that is why the moonbats have started referring to it as "Climate Change".

Sadly the moonbats have been given gravitas under the secular holy science title, and they are first in line on the welfare rolls. And their agenda is to 'save' the earth from US. They are the modern era 'gods' of knowledge.

40 posted on 12/18/2007 6:24:27 AM PST by Just mythoughts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 101-117 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson