Posted on 12/13/2007 2:44:10 PM PST by Responsibility2nd
The ghost of Howard Dean haunts the pundit class. As soon as a candidate of either party spikes up in the polls, he is compared with Dean, who had a spectacular boomlet in the second half of 2003 only to deflate as soon as people began to vote in early 2004.
After many false prophecies, Dean circa 2008 has finally arrived. He is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Not because he will inevitably blow himself up in Iowa. But because, like Dean, his nomination would represent an act of suicide by his party.
Like Dean, Huckabee is an under-vetted former governor who is manifestly unprepared to be president of the United States. Like Dean, he is rising toward the top of polls in a crowded field based on his appeal to a particular niche of his party. As with Dean, his vulnerabilities in a general election are so screamingly obvious that it's hard to believe that primary voters, once they focus seriously on their choice, will nominate him.
The GOP's social conservatism inarguably has been an enormous benefit to the party throughout the past 30 years, winning over conservative Democrats and lower-income voters who otherwise might not find the Republican limited-government message appealing. That said, nominating a Southern Baptist pastor running on his religiosity would be rather overdoing it. Social conservatism has to be part of the Republican message, but it can't be the message in its entirety.
Someone needs to tell Huckabee. His first TV ads in Iowa touted him as a "Christian leader," and his target audience of evangelicals has responded. But according to a Pew poll released in early December, only 1 in 7 nonevangelical Republicans support him in Iowa and 1 in 20 nonevangelicals in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Huckabee has declared that he doesn't believe in evolution. Even if there are many people in America who agree with him, his position would play into the image of Republicans as the anti-science party. This would tend to push away independents and upper-income Republicans. In short, Huckabee would take a strength of the GOP and, through overplaying it, make it a weakness.
He'd do the same on taxes. In general, the public tends to support Democratic proposals for bigger government, which Republicans counter by saying that the proposals will require higher taxes. Huckabee will be equipped poorly to make this traditional Republican comeback, given his tax-raising history in Arkansas. Huckabee tries to compensate with a sales-tax scheme that allows him to say he supports eliminating the IRS, but is so wildly implausible that it would be a liability in a general election.
Then, there's national security, the Republican trump card during the Cold War and after 9/11. Huckabee not only has zero national-security credentials, he basically has no foreign-policy advisers either, as a New York Times Magazine piece this Sunday makes clear. In a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in September, Huckabee struck notes seemingly borrowed from Barack Obama, hitting the Bush administration for its "bunker mentality" and strongly supporting direct talks with Iran. A foreign-policy debate with a Democratic nominee would be a competition over who can promise to be nicer to foreign countries.
None of this is a winning formula. Huckabee has been running his campaign out of his back pocket, and has done it extremely well. There's a reason, though, that serious candidates surround themselves with policy experts. It's necessary to running a campaign based on more than sound bites. Wherever you scratch Huckabee on policy, he seems an inch deep. Do Republicans really want to enter what is already a tough political year with a candidate apparently allergic to preparation, and who has shown no predilection for organizing or fundraising, when he can do cable TV appearances instead?
Democrats have to be looking at Huckabee the way Republicans once regarded Dean -- as a shiny Christmas present that is too good to be true.
Rich Lowry is author of Legacy: Paying the Price for the Clinton Years .
From your lips to Iowa voters' ears.
Huckabee cannot be allowed anywhere NEAR the GOP nomination winners circle.
IF his poll numbers are correct, and I don't necessarily believe they are, I'm hoping some party elders (aka Nixon in 1974) take a trip to Arkansas and tell him to stand down.
Even if we DID have a sales tax, we would need SOME type of agency to enforce that.
Can you imaging the big underground economy that would develop with a sales-tax ONLY type of economy.
So Huckabee's claim of eliminating the "IRS" is a straw dog, just like his entire candidacy.
Nah! To be a Howard Dean, one must be on top in the polls -- and Ron Paul is at the bottom and NO ONE expects any different.
GOING TO???
Huckabee's comment equating the Devil as being Jesus' brother already WAS a psycho moment, in my world.
Huckabee feigned "ignorance" of the LDS Church!!
Baloney. He is an ordained minister, and thus has intimate knowledge of all Christian sect religions.
Huckabee is a sinister, sneaky below-the-belt candidate and the sooner he is taken down the better.
Do you mean like Paul Weyrich, Laura Ingraham, Sean Hannity, Bob Jones III, Limbaugh, the Nebraska Governor, Glen Beck, Hugh Hewitt, NRO, and a thousand OTHER prominent political leaders who support Mitt Romney.
Romney is a fine choice, and has the best chance of uniting the GOP ... AND defeating the Democrats at the same time.
“until I saw an anti Huck ad on TV. I don’t know who made the ad but it was powerful. It was Huck himself agreeing to tax after tax after tax.”
It might have been the ad by the Club for Growth. I read they put together and paid for some anti-Huckabee ads. They are fiscally conservative organization and hate taxes and those who raise them.
That little squirrel looks like a spyyyyy! LOL.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3425130,00.html
Iranians arrest 14 squirrels for spying
“Islamic Republic’s intelligence agents allege rodents were carrying advanced Western spy gear”
Here is the link to more info to the Club for Growth anti-Huckabee ad:
http://www.clubforgrowth.net/2007/12/clubforgrowthnet_doubles_ad_bu.html
ClubforGrowth.Net Doubles Ad Buy In Iowa and South Carolina
Washington — Today, Club for Growth.Net is more than doubling its initial advertising buy in Iowa and South Carolina, adding an additional $200,000 to the effort.
Entitled “United,” the ad addresses the ongoing tax battle in Washington and urges taxpayers to call Mike Huckabee and challenge him on his tax policy. While the former governor has repeatedly argued that he cut taxes 94 times, the ad demonstrates his willingness to raise taxes. Indeed Huckabee’s tax increases far surpassed his tax cuts with the average Arkansas tax burden increasing 47 percent over his tenure. Mike Huckabee’s support for tax hikes includes:
1996 Sales Tax Hike: Huckabee campaigned for an amendment to raise the sales tax
1999 Gas and Diesel Fuel Tax Hike
2001 Cigarette Tax Hike
2001 Nursing Home Bed Tax
2002 Grocery Tax: Huckabee opposed repeal
2003 Income Surcharge Tax
2003 Tobacco Tax Hike
Taxes on Internet Access
2006 Beer Tax: Huckabee opposed letting the tax expire
“Club for Growth.Net is more than doubling its original ad buy because we believe Americans deserve to know the truth about Mike Huckabee’s tax policies so they can question him about his record,” said Club for Growth.Net President Pat Toomey. “Huckabee’s laundry list of tax increases is too long to simply ignore.”
The $200,000 ad buy will run on broadcast TV and statewide cable in Iowa and statewide cable in South Carolina.
“Once again I say.... Anybody but Giuliani.”
You prefer even Hillary or Obama?
I know.
I hope people come out in droves to give Fred a victory that shocks even his most optimistic and ardent supporters!
Lowry is right on. Do you deny it ? Can this lightweight preacher ever get elected President? Can anyone anywhere really believe that? And if not, whats wrong with Lowry telling us as much?
I prefer Romey 100:1 over Huckabee.
But if Huck wins the nomination, I will certainly vote for him in a NY minute over Barack Hussein or Hillary Clinton.
If Giuliani is selected then Republicans will force conservatives to a third party which will result in...
Hillary or Obama.
Like I said in post # 1. Either you like Huck or you don’t. But allow him his moment in the sun. The longer he leads in the polls (along with Fred and/or Mitt) the longer Rooty G. is out of the loop. The more forgotten Rooty is, the better off Jim/Fred/Mitt’s chances are.
Don’t forget — Huckabee was governor of Arkansas and we still vividly remember another President, who was gov of Arkansas.
Michael Dale “Mike” Huckabee (born August 24, 1955) is a former governor of the U.S. state of Arkansas, having served from 1996 to 2007.[1]
Huckabee is the author of several books, an ordained Southern Baptist minister, public speaker, and a musician, playing bass guitar in his rock-and-roll band Capitol Offense.
William Jefferson “Bill” Clinton was the forty-second President of the United States, serving from 1993 to 2001. Before his presidency, Clinton served nearly twelve years as the 50th and 52nd Governor of Arkansas.
(from Wikipedia)
I’m with you. Once people start voting, we’ll see what’s really what. All the pundits’ prophecy is no more use than my teenagers’ predictions!
I’d love to see THIS headline when I log into FR the day after the Iowa Caucus:
Thompson Surprises Republicans with Iowa Victory
(probably more likely SC though)
The Iowa caucuses are flaky and not really indicative of much - not even of how Iowa votes, really. It will take several real state primaries to give an idea of voters’ opinions on the candidates.
I wonder if people like Lowry are smarting from 8 years of Dubya as well. Just about any Republican (not to mention Huckabee) is going to be less demented than Dean, Obama and less evil than Clinton, but I think his point is that Democrat presidential race shenagigans are pretty much the same as Republican shenanigans. But just because you’re new to Washington and are perceived as being anti-establishment doesn’t mean you’re going to be competent enough to beat the establishment and make good on your campaign promises. No one is touching real tax reform, entitlement reform, and attacking discretionary spending because the person qualified to do it would need to shut Washington down and get away with it. The only alternative is to consistently fight for every piecemeal reform you can get, and Huckabee doesn’t have a record of doing that.
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