I question the accuracy of both at this point in the game.
***Do you have some kind of data that supports your contention? Several posters on this thread have claimed that prediction markets are “pure emotion”, which doesn’t hold water once the data is looked at objectively.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Like all things of that nature predication markets are based on the most current available data. If all factors stay in check, then they are accurate, if not, well, ask World Com investors, many were planning lavish retirements based on the markets the Friday before all hell broke loose...
Prior performance is not indicative of future results.
As an aside, I would be curious, and you would be the one to find it quicker than I, what the predication markets said about Howard Dean at this point.