Like all things of that nature predication markets are based on the most current available data. If all factors stay in check, then they are accurate, if not, well, ask World Com investors, many were planning lavish retirements based on the markets the Friday before all hell broke loose...
Prior performance is not indicative of future results.
As an aside, I would be curious, and you would be the one to find it quicker than I, what the predication markets said about Howard Dean at this point.
Since there is no looking glass to the future, I can produce more data.
***If you can produce more data, then do it. Your response is difficult to understand in the light of no data production.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts