They also had Kerry at 90% chance of winning. I like Duncan, but don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. There is still an eternity left.
I have nobody in this and it will be over prior to my vote. My guess is Fred will be a very strong candidate.
Pray for W and Our Victorious Troops
If anyone has it wrong, it’s Free Republic. In 2006 we showed 8% who believed we’d lose the house & senate, while the prediction markets had the reverse at 80%.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts?page=22#22
Everyone gets it wrong at times. The aggregate data shows that prediction markets get it right more than poll data.