Posted on 12/10/2007 11:54:51 AM PST by america4vr
The threat of war with Iran has ebbed and with new UN sanctions now an even harder sell, the United States has scant options even if it were to reverse course and engage Tehran, experts say.
President George W. Bush insists that Iran remains a threat despite Monday's appraisal by US intelligence that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, a change of heart that has sent shockwaves around the world.
Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that in light of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE): "The military option is not just off the table, it's out the window."
Russia and China all but ruled out fresh UN sanctions against Iran after the NIE, which for Takeyh was evidence of today's US spy leaders refusing to "roll over" to the Bush White House after skewed intelligence before the Iraq war.
The NIE undermined the case presented by Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney that Iran poses an imminent threat that might require a military response, said Bruce Riedel, a former presidential advisor on Middle East affairs.
"A unilateral US military attack on Iran is off the table now, no matter what Bush says about 'all options are open'," Riedel, a Brookings Institution analyst, said.
"Russia and China have been vindicated in their argument that Iran does not have a weapons program. They will not support new sanctions now," he added.
"So, a bilateral dialogue makes sense," Riedel said.
"Will Bush do it? He will face pressure from the Democrats to be flexible but also pressure from the neo-cons to hang tough. My guess is he will not, and leave it to the next president to come up with a new approach."
(Excerpt) Read more at spacewar.com ...
That was under the Shah. Before the severe purges of the officer corps and the US arms embargo (the vast majority of Imperial Iranian arms were US, German and British made), the Imperial Iranian Army was argueably the strongest force in the region, next to Turkey. The Revolution weakened the Military extremely, which was exactly the reason Saddam smelled the momentum for an attack.
The fourth was Iraq and Iraq kicked their butts
Iraq invaded Iran because Saddam tried to annex oilrich Khuzestan province. Iraq failed in it's objective. Later in the war Khomeini tried to instigate an Islamic Revolution in Iraq. He failed aswell. The war ended in a stalemate, with both sides bled white and economically finished.
But Iran managed to repel the Iraqi agression, despite Saddam being pumped up mainly by China, Warsaw Pact and France, while Iran was relying on desperate human wave tactics beside some Chinese and bloc-free states support. Throughout the war, Iraq had the technological and strategic edge, but they miserably failed.
We all know how powerful the Iraqi military was.....non-existant.
...non-existant when compared to the mighty US Army. After being weakened by Iran, we blew away Saddams army in Desert Storm. Operation Iraqi Freedom gave them the rest. They were a mediocre cold-war level army at their heigth. They never were a match to our troops.
Iran’s military has the world fooled.
Absolutely true. Their military power is ridiculous and basically Chinese-Russian junk with US-sold leftovers from the 1970's. Their deterrent power is terrorism, oil and the prospect of nukes.
heir equipment is not much better than WWII equipment but they have a lot of it.
It's cold-war level at best, which they are unable to use effectively. In the Iran-Iraq war both sides were unable to use the US/British and Soviet armour respectively, effectively. They fought WW1 style... with comparable results.
Carter destabalized Iran. Iran would more than likely still be government by the Pelavi family if Carter hadn’t deemed them unsuitable, and withdrawn support. And the Pelavi family was pro western. Considering Middle-Eastern standards, it was a rather enlightened nation. It’s women were able to dress by western standards. Carter took it upon himself to fix things. Then came the Ayatollah Komeinie and major trouble. Here we are, with a nation seeking nuclear weapons to use against the west, and Russia and China lined up behind it.
The shadow government that was left in place as a good will gesture of the Compassionate Conservative administration scores another direct hit with a shot in the back.
Because the president left most of the Clinton worshippers/supporters in place for the last 7 years we have really had 15 years of Clintonistas running the federal bureaucracies.
This NIE report is just more slime from Clintonistas designed to undermine President Bush and to influence government policy.
The president should fire and/or prosecute the three authors of the report but, being a compassionate conservative" he will just take another knife in the back.
Check this out:
"... according to the Wall Street Journal, Thomas Fingar is one of the three officials who were responsible for crafting the latest NIE.
The Journal cites "an intelligence source" as describing Fingar and his two colleagues as "hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials."
But "...roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (emphasis added): Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors.
Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution.
We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons--despite its international obligations and international pressure.
This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons."
The above quotes from:
The Weekly Standard
NIE: An Abrupt About-Face
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/12/nie_an_abrupt_aboutface.asp
You are totally mistaken on this one. Carter's disastrous role in the Islamic Revolution (beside numerous other disastrous failures) can't be understated.
We may not like it, but those Middle-Eastern states are very hard to rule by western standards. If it works in Iraq we’ll be very lucky indeed. Most of them have despotic rule because that’s the only rule that will stabalize the nation.
If we took down the leadership of Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and a host of other nations, we would see massive carnage as a result. The Shah wasn’t a boy scout, but it’s my take that if Ronald Reagan himself were to rule Syria, he would have to use an iron fist approach.
As I recall, the Shah had a little over a thousand people in his prisons, that were so-called political prisoners. Have we not seen what the people of the Middle-East are capable of, if they want to activate a Jihad? It would be amazing for the Shah not to have had some ‘political’ prisoners.
Carter was such a sage...
“He will do what is right for the country and prevent the terrorist regime in Tehran from further enriching uranium which is the key ingredient to make the nuclear weapons, and he will do it by any means necessary to achieve the goal.”
I sure hope you’re right! One thing I think people are failing to consider is that Iran may not need (much of) a nuclear weapons development program. Iran is enriching U-235, which is primarily (only?) suitable for a “Thin Man” type fission weapon. The US was able to make one of these in the early 1940s...how hard do you think it’d be today with computers, CAD, and the available body of scientific knowledge? I believe it’d be considerably easier than an implosion type plutonium device.
The sarcasm was very hard to detect in the comment... I ask for lenience.
Exactly.
The Shah (correctly) identified the two enemies in Communism and Islamism. He kept down Communism first by driving out the Communist seperatists in 1946, then by prohibiting the Tudeh party and later by secret police action (SAVAK).
Islamism was kept down by a different approach which was a mixture of police supression (especially when dealing with the terrorist Fedayeen in the 1950's), and bribery. Bribing the Mullahs to keep quiet proved to be effective for most of the 1950's-70's.
Then comes Carter and pressures the Shah on a) political prisoners (Communists) and b) to stop bribing the Mullahs. Carter with his misguided sense of "human rights" literally took the lid of the pot and it didn't take long for the Commies and Mullahs to instigate a Revolution. Carter withdrew his support to the Shah and literally let him hang out to dry. He eved cowed to the Mullahs threats and barred the Shah from entering the USA.
I agree. When Carter blocked the Shah from entering the U.S. it revealed the fraud (Carter) for what he was. The Shah was dying from Cancer. Carter, who used righteousness when objecting to the Shah’s tactics, none the less forbid him to seek medical attention in the United States. Carter was some Christian.
The Shah was an ally of the United States. When Carter sold him out, it sent the message around the world, the U.S. would sell out anyone. Carter went on to sell out Taiwan to the likes of Ho Chi Min’s pals.
Christians (not on your life) like Carter besmirch the reputations of all Christians. What a miserable failure of a man.
* Carter, Jimmy. Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2006. President Carter offers steps to help bring permanent peace to Israel and Palestine.
* Carter, Jimmy. It Takes A Moron To Lose Iran and Other Poems. New York: Times Books. 1995. First collection of poetry by former President Carter. Reflect memories of his childhood, family and political life. Illustrated by his granddaughter.
* Carter, Jimmy. The Blood of Abraham: Insights into the Middle East. New edition. Fayetteville: University of Arkansas Press. 1993. This new edition has an extended chronology and afterward. Corrections have been made where needed and the chapter, "The Future", has been slightly updated.
* Carter, Jimmy. Christmas in Plains: Memories. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001. A portrait of Carter's family annual Christmas celebration in Plains, Georgia from his boyhood days to the present. Illustrated by Amy Carter.
There are at least 4 major factions within the Foreign Policy Community, and the neocons are only one of those factions. Each faction has its own vision of a unified planetary order and its own timeline, and these folks have no hesitation in thinking in terms of generations.
Three of those factions put aside their differences to unite and block the neocon faction from going to war in Iran. Each of these factions has its own reason for the existence of a nuclear Iran, and one of them is to block further attempts at an American world empire.
This is all about placing the Bush Administration's foreign policy in receivership. Something similar was done after Iran-Contra in 1987 when Colin Powell was moved into the Reagan Administration as National Security Advisor. If I am right about this, look for the resignation of Bush's foreign policy team over the next 3-4 months, starting with the Vice President.
Great strategy. I’m just hoping someone in the White House is actually implementing it.
And boxed in is exactly where the pinkos in State wanted Bush. And Bush apparently pawned his balls at some point and is afraid to even acknowledge that he is getting beaten up by bureaucrats who couldn’t fight their way out of a paper bag.
Sigh... How about planting some goobers?
The horse was dead last week within about 48 hours and now the story is the analysts who are beating the dead horse.
Bleak, bleak, appraisal. The problem is, it sounds to bleak to be false.
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