Cody has it right. I would go with 6 months, if left up to me.
Soldiers simply need to fall in on pre-positioned equipment. There is no value in keeping them there for 15 months....even 12 months for that matter.
There's so much Iraq experience in this Army that any newbies will have instant experienced leadership to bring them up to speed.
“He said a decision on cutting tour lengths could be announced in three months or four months. “
Combined with the adjustment to tour length will be a reduction of personnel in Iraq which makes complete sense.
The USAF/USN can do short tours, the Army can’t. It is logistically extremely expensive to move units in and out of there and the ground component takes a long time to get into position and functional. Moving to theater and the hand over takes several months for a heavy unit.
What is important is that tour length not exceed 12 months, which has become nearly the norm. 16 months as we did is simply to long and burns people out. Once the demand for overall manpower in Iraq begins to drop this should become near automatic anyhow.