Posted on 12/08/2007 4:43:11 AM PST by Clive
The recent release of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report on Iran's nuclear program has been received by critics of the Bush administration as vindication of their insistence that Iran poses no threat to peace and stability in the Persian Gulf region and beyond.
The key judgment -- Tehran halted its nuclear program in the fall of 2003 -- is surrounded by extensive qualifications indicating difficulties in assessing Iranian nuclear intentions, and that the NIE "does not assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons."
In refusing to make such an assumption, the intelligence community does not tell the world, as the French and German leaders now fear in their public statements, why Tehran invested in a nuclear program until 2003.
But then American intelligence does not deny what the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have indicated to the world, that Tehran remains engaged in the enrichment of uranium.
The distinction between "military" and "civilian" uses of enriched uranium is artificial since an unmonitored civilian program carries the risks of being used for military purposes.
Since this NIE report reverses its earlier assessment on Iran's nuclear program, it raises more questions than it answers about the business of intelligence and understanding of Iranian political culture.
Intelligence is murky business. It is akin to trying to draw meaning from shadows, or reading tea leaves in a moving stream.
American intelligence, unlike that of other countries, has a history of spectacular failures in misreading events, or being surprised by unexpected events.
Perhaps the most spectacular failure of the United States was in misjudging how soon the former Soviet Union ended America's nuclear monopoly in August 1949 by testing its own atomic weapon.
Recently Russian President Vladimir Putin posthumously awarded George Koval -- an American-born Soviet spy -- with the highest honour of the Russian state for successfully providing critical information on the U.S. Manhattan project during the Second World War.
The story of George Koval, code-named Delmar and trained by Stalin's ruthless spy masters, tells us how greatly unaware American intelligence was about the U.S.'s most secret war program -- the building of the atomic bomb -- being penetrated by a Communist agent.
On Iran, U.S. intelligence has been disastrously wrong. It had no clue of revolution erupting when president Jimmy Carter toasted the late Shah in Tehran on New Year's Eve 1978 for making Iran "an island of stability in one of the more troubled areas of the world."
Since then terror-exporting and radical Islamic Iran, established by Ayatollah Khomeini and his followers in 1979, remains mostly a black hole for American intelligence.
Moreover, assessing the intentions of Iranian decision makers is a beguiling task since tactics of intentionally misinforming or blatantly lying is sanctioned by the Shiite practice of "taqiyyah" (dissembling or concealing truth).
The NIE judgment about Iran halting its nuclear program in 2003 is stated without evidence or reason. Could it be that this occurred -- if it did -- because of regime change in Baghdad?
But the world witnessed in December 2003 the Libyan dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, publicly dismantle his covert nuclear weapons program, and it was unmistakable that he had drawn a cautionary lesson from Saddam Hussein's fall.
Hence, prudence dictates and demands remaining skeptical over intelligence on Iran.
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For a while Iran was worried that their efforts would be thwarted - that time passed a long while back.
RUSH: Well, I have to tell you, there’s a lot of people that are not satisfied with this whole thing. Some conservatives in Washington want a review of Iran intelligence to be sought. “The move is the first official challenge, but it comes amid growing backlash from conservatives and neoconservatives,” this is the Washington Post, of course, “unhappy about the assessment that Iran halted a clandestine nuclear weapons program four years ago. It reflects how quickly the NIE has become politicized, with critics even going after the analysts who wrote it, and shows a split among Republicans.” How politicized the NIE’s become? “How politicized opposition to George W. Bush has become,” is the right way to put it. If you go to the LA Times, you get a whole different take. “Doves Find Fault with Iran Report, Too — The new US intelligence report that says Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is suddenly raising concerns among the political center and left...
“Moderate and liberal foreign policy experts said that US intelligence agencies, possibly eager to demonstrate independence from White House political pressure, may have produced a National Intelligence Estimate that is more reassuring than it should be on the potential risks of the Iranian nuclear program. ... Gary Samore, who was a top arms control official in the Clinton White House, agreed that the National Intelligence Estimate did not adequately emphasize Iran’s continuing efforts to enrich uranium and build missiles.” Even former Clintonistas are suspicious of this, and this whole story in the LA Times basically is quoting a bunch of liberals, who suspect that anti-Bush politics drove the NIE conclusions. All a bunch of liberals. I mean, this is shazam time. The Israelis are not happy about this, either. The Israeli Defense Forces... I guess the chairman of the Joint Chiefs is going to make a trip to Israel. They don’t go there very much. He’s going to go there.
The IDF and Mossad, are saying, “Okay, I don’t think they’re doing nukes. Let’s show you what we’ve got.” The Israelis, and even the French, and even some at the UN, are saying, “We’re not quite this convinced on this.” So this isn’t over. This is not over. Right now, it’s hamstrung everybody in the administration from doing anything, which I think was the intent — and there are some people, ladies and gentlemen, you know, when this kind of stuff happens, because this is a 180. Nobody is ever... In the last five years, six, nobody has said they’re not doing it. This is the first time, and so all kinds of theories are popping up. One of the theories is that this is the first step to open genuine diplomatic negotiations with Iran to make a deal, and that this is actually what the Bush administration wants so that we can lower the wall of resistance. It’s a theory I’m hearing being bandied about.
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_120707/content/01125113.guest.html
On every thread dealing with this subject I raise this “not so” hypothetical question:
If you were a nuclear-ambitious country (like Iran), what would you rather possess, (1) a fully optimized set drawings and NO enriched uranium or (2) a ready and ample supply of weapons grade enriched uranium and maybe not-so-well-optimized drawings and specifications for a nuclear weapon?
Yep, a 50th percentile fifth grader would get that answer right. But not the State Department of the United States of America. And apparently not Thomas Fingar.
I’d also pose this question: Since Iran has NO civilian nuclear power reactor capable of using this enriched uranium, and cannot possibly have for 10 to 15 years, what do these intelligence experts suppose that the enriched uranium is for?
Especially keeping in mind that nuclear fuel undergoes radioactive decay, and can’t be kept usable that long without being reprocessed.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
This report did several things.
1. It proved that Bush was right. Iran had a nuke program at the time of the Axis of Evil comment.
2. It proved that the UN was completely blind to Iran.
3. It shows that sections of the government are willing to harm the country just to make Bush look bad. That should never be forgotten. They need to be routed out.
4. It will also make Iran more bold. That will cause Israel to take them out like they did with Syria and Iraq.
Their model was North Korea. Clearly it worked...
It’s a slow motion train wreck...
This was the last I heard over here and it was well over a year ago.
It is only murky for those who are in the dark.
I would say that it is more akin to reading coffee grounds, but that is just me... ;-)
Delivering one is far, far easier than making one.
Too many people think of missiles as the only way to deliver them. There are plenty of conventional reliable ways to get one here. From an oil tanker to a chartered flight. Neither has to worry about customs. Once it is here it is too late.
Yes but the missiles serve a greater purpose. ;-)
Explain, please?
We may possibly and arguably have the best weapons systems on earth but our Humint sucks and everyone knows it, Mossad did it for survival, here in the US its all about power plays.
I say just clean house and hire some Israelis to design our Humint and Elint capabilities.
In case anyone missed this
The Flaws In the Iran Report (John Bolton former USA united nations ambassador)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1935461/posts
No.
I’ve actually been saying it for a long time. You can dig through my old posts on the subject if you want to... This last NIE is just another one of the many blunders along the way...
Read the thread linked on post #9 regarding why Israel may have second thoughts...
And Kadafy was futher along with his nukes than the geniuses in the intel thought
“Too many people think of missiles as the only way to deliver them. There are plenty of conventional reliable ways to get one here. From an oil tanker to a chartered flight.”:
I agree. The Iranians, in fact, have a known history of using civilian airlines to ferry secret cargo to other countries. It’s just SOP for them.
Also SOP - showing people what they’re doing in their right hand, so you don’t pay any attention to what the left is doing.
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