[Southack]

"...he called for every terrorists left in Iraq to use at least 3 bombs to attacks Iraqi and US forces including the Sunnis who turned against Al Qaeda, according to the speech this new wave of terrorist attacks will end on January 21 2008."

I noted in an earlier thread that the terrorists weren't surging very well. I cited some stats back then to show that while Al Qaeda was able to ramp up, that they were never able to ramp up enough to matter, and that they couldn't sustain even those feeble increases for long.

I speculated that based on the stats of the past 6 months that Al Qaeda *was* surging already...that what was left of their forces was doing everything that they could (even though their overall lethality was declining each month).

And here lies an insurmountable problem for Al Qaeda: they were surging in the past 6 months in order to make it appear as though they hadn't been damaged as much as reality would dictate, and their history shows that they can't keep up such efforts for long...which means that their lethality is about to drop off of a cliff.

It's like they have been playing 11-man football with only 8 men; those 8 men were sprinting in order to make a game of it, but they can only sprint for so long. Now they are down to just 2 men ... and those 2 can't even sprint any longer.

It's over. Al Qaeda has been defeated. I'm confident that U.S. casualties in Iraq will plummet in December and January even though Al Qaeda is speechifying for a grand "surge" of their own in public.

Won't happen. Not on the ground where it counts.

[jveritas]

Excellent post.

[Allegra]

The terrorists were making some of those noises in central Baghdad earlier today. I don't know if they pulled anything off, but we could hear them trying.

Hadn't heard any of those sounds in a while.

[Enchante]

Now it’s time for a new mock banner, same message but completely different people holding it...... AQI’s 200 or so survivors (of the moment) looking extremely scruffy and filthy and harried like they just crawled out of their holes, holding a large banner that says.....

“JON CARY HALP US WE R STUK HIR IN IRAK!”
[Hilary, Obama, kant any1 halp us pliz?]

[could some FReeper make a cartoon of that please???]

The last shred of hope for AQI and for Al Qaeda worldwide is that they can pressure through the MSM to help the Demagogues rescue them somehow. Doesn’t seem like it can still happen, it’s too late for them, but the MSM and the Demagogues like Jon Cary are their last hope.