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Terror trend for 2008 - IMHO

1. Pakistan - turmoil will continue as the assassination of Bhutto has (mis)directed the bile of the moderate moslems against Musharraf instead of the terrorists themselves. This will permit them to further consolidate their bases in the mountaineous regions along the Afghan border. If the islamists can push hard enough, they could slip in behind and threaten seizing the nuclear arsenal. At this point, it would depend which faction has control and against whom they would use it first. Highest probability is against India (uprise) as Paki islamists have the biggest bone to pick with them first. Slightly lower chance is against Allied forces in Afghanistan, as I think the locals have some (typical moslem) distrust of the ‘foreigners’ being AQ / Taliban. If things spiral out of control, also expect US strikes in Pakistan targeting AQ/Tali strongholds currently ‘protected’ by Musharraf.

2. Afghanistan - The trend over the past two years has been for the Taliban to try to mass forces and use conventional methods to seize land near their operating base in Pakistan. Most of the time, they try to target NATO operational areas (and avoid US). NATO has yielded more than the US. However, the Taliban have been decimated when the counter attacks occur, so the question is whether the Taliban have enough cannon fodder (as well as surviving leaders) for next summer’s operations. They have been weak in conventional terror tactics such as IEDs and suicide attacks. I suspect this is cultural as I’m sure AQ has been trying to incorporate those tactics used with some success in Iraq. I suspect there may be an increase in these attacks, but nothing of consequence.

3. Africa - AQ has made it clear that they are trying to reestablish a secondary sanctuary area in N. Africa. Expect increased fighting and terror there.

4. Iraq - Provided the President can maintain cover for him, Petraeus’ policies should continue to maul AQ and affiliated groups as well as shia outliers. The biggest question is whether the Iraqi government will get a clue once they get back into session and get their house in order.

5. Europe - France is coming increasingly into the cross-hairs, particularly due to the tough stance of its new president. I suspect that most of their trouble will be focused on the moslem enclaves resulting in rioting.

6. Asia - Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines will continue to have moderate terror incidents. The stability of their governments indicate little or no change to anti-terror operations and the terror groups seem to lack the resources and support to initiate larger operations.

7. USA - The desire to strike the US is still strong. However, AQ invested (and lost) a lot of capital in Iraq, so it may take some time to mount another 9/11 level operation. Sudden Jihad Syndrome will probably continue (unacknowledged by media/LEOs). If Israel or US deals with Iran, go to ThreatCon ORANGE immediately.

8. Israel - Hezbollah/Hamas will continue its pinprick attacks, but the IDF basically has them hitting empty desert and the current decapitation campaign has hurt the Hamas snake severely. Syria is on the defensive because of an agressive France and the slap in the face from the Israeli strike. The big question for 2008 is whether or not Israel will try to take out Iran’s nuclear program. The NIE has nearly emasculated US justification for a strike, so Israel is likely to put its own into place. The IDF is as skillful as ever, proved by its recent strike of a nuclear (?) site in Syria. However, Iran may be a bridge too far for its conventional air force without covert aid by the US. Israel’s only other option is to use strategic assets (land and submarine based missiles) to go after the targets, but these my prove to lack the accuracy to do the job adequately. Israel would also have to weigh Hezbollah’s response from Lebanon as well as the Syrian gov’t. Watch to see if the US is maneuvering carrier task forces nearer to the region - this may be the only tip-off.