Skip to comments.A Vote for Huckabee is a vote for Rudy Giuliani
Posted on 11/27/2007 12:34:05 AM PST by Jeff Fuller
The below is what I origianlly posted at Iowans for Romney) http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/2007/11/vote-for-mike-huckabee-is-vote-for-rudy_25.html :
Yes my friends, a vote for Mike Huckabee is a vote for Rudy Giuliani. In Iowa this is absolutely the case, and in other battleground states the same argument holds true.
Why is a vote for Huckabee a vote for Rudy?
On the surface the proposition appears preposterous. Huckabee and Rudy represent the absolute polar opposites of the GOP field; Huck being a solid social conservative but fiscal liberal/moderate and conversely Rudy being a social liberal/moderate and a solid fiscal conservative. I've had conversations with supporters of both Rudy and Huck; they are farily consistent in saying that the one candidate in the race that they wouldn't/couldn't vote for is the other.
However, at least for Team Rudy, their died-in-the-wool supporters are openly rooting for Huckabee to win Iowa. Also, these two candidate themselves seem to have man-crushes on one another. Seems odd, eh?
Well, Rudy and his most knowledgeable supporters know that Mitt is the only real threat to his path to the nomination. More and more people are realizing that the race is shaping up to be a Romney-Rudy showdown. Influential conservative editor of the Weekly Standard Fred Barnes penned a piece called "The Two-Man Race" arguing that only Rudy and Romney had "credible strategies/scenarios" to winning the GOP nomination. Fred said:
If a long shot like McCain or Thompson or even Mike Huckabee wins in Iowa (January 3) or New Hampshire (January 8) or South Carolina (January 19), there won't be enough time for him to raise the funds needed to compete effectively in Florida on January 29 and the 20-plus primaries on February 5. Television ads are expensive, but necessary.
Similarly, conservative columnist John Poderotz wrote a piece called "The Two Man Republican Race" where he also says it's down to Romney and Rudy. Of Huckabee he says:
Mike Huckabee, Baptist preacher turned politician, has taken Thompsons place as the Southern conservative to watch, but while he is conservative on social issues, on economic and political matters he seems more in the populist traditions of the Democratic party, and he has no plausible path to the nomination.Now I know there will be Huckabee supporter that believe that if he wins Iowa that he will pick up steam and win the subsequent states eventually going on to win the nomination. I respectfully disagree.
Huckabee's appeal is disproportionately weighted to firm evangelical Christians. The latest Iowa poll shows that Huckabee is blowing every other candidate away in this demographic. He's got nearly half of all evangelical Iowans polled in his camp already. He knows and speaks the language of this well-organized and motivated demographic. But is it enough? Maybe for Iowa, but not for the subsequent states.
Actually, let's take a look at the the primary calender and see if Huckabee has any "credible pathway" to the nomination:
Wyoming--Jan 5th (only a fraction of state's primary delegates up for grabs on this date though and these will be determined via a convention of party activists):
New Hampshire--Jan 8th:
South Carolina--Jan 19th (same day as Nevada . . . and thereby probably diluting the "bounce" of a win unless the same candidate wins them both):
Florida--Jan 29th (27 electoral votes) has been polled:
TSUNAMI TUESDAY--Feb 5th:
Won't all these subsequent states come to love Huckabee like Iowa? Not enough for him to come even close to winning any of them (until possibly South Carolina). It is well known that social conservatives with a strongly religious appeal tend to over-perform in Iowa and then fade into irrelevance thereafter:
One exception to my "close second" theory is Huckabee. He seems to be enjoying a well-timed surge, but unless he wins Iowa, he risks becoming John Podhoretz's "Republican Guy Who Is Coming Out of Nowhere to Place a Surprising Second in Iowa," a role JPod contends has been played in previous cycles by Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, and Steve Forbes. In other words, he gets one more news cycle of good press and then fades quickly.
Having said all that, if each win begets another bump in the polls, it's not unthinkable to see Romney win Iowa, win Wyoming (for whatever that's worth), win New Hampshire, win Michigan, win South Carolina by a hair, and then go into Florida with a very hot hand...
A word of warning to Huckabee supporters: If on caucus night, lots of Rudy supporters (who should be diametrically opposed to a candidate like Huckabee) start to align with the Huckabee camp you will know that you are being used as a tool for a Rudy nomination. Ironically, you are probably the voting block that would be most opposed to having a pro-choice candidate, yet it would be, at least in part, your own doing.
Of course, James Dobson and/or Tony Perkins and/or Richard Land could help the average Christian conservative realize all of the above by endorsing Romney BEFORE Jan 3rd. Otherwise, they risk being complicit in creating the situation they supposedly lament: a pro-choice GOP nominee that will necessitate a 3rd party pro-life candidate. This scenario will hand Hillary the oval office on a silver platter. So then, might one also conclude: "A vote for Huckabee is a vote for Hillary?"
I, therefore, invite and implore all social conservative Iowans to consider supporting Governor Mitt Romney on Jan 3rd at your Caucus event. His is the largest tent unifying social, fiscal, and security conservatives and this coalition of strength can carry him forward beyond Iowa to win the GOP nomination and the general election. It CAN happen and we all can be a part of it.
I have an even better idea: Vote for a REAL conservative! Vote for Fred Thompson!
Nominating Mitt will guarantee a Hillary Clinton Victory.
Only Rudy can stop her.
Huckabee is a joke, Mitt can’t win.
Vote for Rudy or get used to Hillary.
It’s that simple.
Tired of those phony psychics you see on tv? Well, look no further. We are the real psychics. Only 99 cents per call.
Fred Thompson was doomed by the writer’s strike.
Without writer’s we are forced to hear his own words and opinions.
Fred is done. If you like Fred, watch Law & Order reruns, cause he won’t be your president anytime soon.
Vote for any of them and you must be an ee-diot.
Romney 2008! Because he’s the prettiest.
The new Rassmussen poll shows all five top Pubbie candidates ahead of the Hildabeast, so why should I vote for RINO Rudy.
Where, if I may ask, was your candidate when Duncan Hunter was
in southeast asia KILLING COMMUNISTS?
Glad I’m not voting for either of them !
You beat me to it, Vet.
Why should anyone vote for a social liberal in a fiscal conservative’s body, or a fiscal liberal in a social conservatives body, when they can have both a social and fiscal conservative, body and soul, in one man - Fred Thompson!
Experience, rock-solid credentials, no past abortion support, and no flip-flopping.
Hunter is not a fiscal conservative.
he should be sec of defense in a Thompson admin
* Served his nation in battle. (Only one other candidate can say that.)
* Represented his district for 28 years.
* Chaired the House Armed Services Committee.
* Rock-solid on military/defense
* Rock-solid on 2A
* Rock-solid on life
* Endorsed by patriots like Gen. Chuck Yeager
* He built the existing fence and authored the 854-mile fence legislation.
* Impeccable personal credentials: monogamous, and a son who has already served two tours of duty in Iraq.
* Has the energy to get done what sorely needs doing, and the experience to do it.
He is the man America needs.
Quit playing these elections as if they are a series of some two bit horse races and we are unemployed hobos munching on cigars and reading the racing forms, discussing handicaps.
1) Study all the candidates.
2) Determine their political philosophy, sources of funding, voting records, and advisors.
3) Find the one WHO MOST CLOSELY REPRESENTS YOUR VIEWPOINT regardless of his standing on the "racing form".
4) Cast your vote accordingly. Your vote shows up in the column of the person you identify with most, whom you want to be President of the United States. It is to be an honest statement to the WORLD (without your name being told) as to your honest opinion, you state a moral truth.
And that should be the END OF IT.
That’s why he’d make an excellent sec of defense or in charge of homeland security.
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