Posted on 11/24/2007 9:46:30 PM PST by bruinbirdman
Less than six years ago, as euro notes and coins were launched, politicians sought to champion the new currency. “The euro could become a reserve currency with equal status to the dollar,” said Hans Eichel, then Germany’s finance minister.
Back then the euro was worth less than 90 US cents. This week, as the euro heads towards $1.50, lifted by speculation that the world’s central banks might cut links to the dollar and switch to its younger rival, Europe’s politicians might regret what they had once wished.
The threat to exports from a strengthening euro is sounding alarm bells across the continent, raising concern that the eurozone is bearing an unfair burden of global economic adjustment and that a significant economic slowdown lies ahead.
In spite of politicians’ worries, however, few economists expect that the euro will threaten the dollar’s global role in the foreseeable future. The euro has notched up successes: the value of euro notes in circulation now comfortably exceeds the value of dollar bills and the euro has overtaken the dollar as the main denomination of international debt issues.
But a switch from pricing oil in dollars to euros, as mooted by some, would have largely symbolic significance. More crucially, the dollar still forms by far the largest part of official foreign exchange reserves.
“Nobody knows what will happen in 20 years from now but this process of substituting a leading currency with another one is a long process,” says Otmar Issing, former chief economist at the European Central Bank. “The incumbent always has advantages.”
A greater international role for the euro would reflect logical diversification by central bankers – and could be seen as a tribute to its underlying strengths.
Mr Issing, a former Bundesbank official, recalls how in the 1970s Germany’s central bank was wary about the global status of the D-Mark and the additional responsibilities it felt, but came to change its mind. “As a central bank, it [the currency] is your baby. And if it is so widely appreciated, it is an expression of credibility and trust in the future stability of the currency.”
Will the global attention on the euro create problems for the ECB? Simon Derrick at Bank of New York Mellon dates the start of the currency’s long-term rise to eurozone politicians’ lobbying efforts earlier this decade. Between early 2002 and the second quarter of this year, the euro’s share of known official foreign exchange reserves rose from 19.7 per cent to 25.6 per cent, according to International Monetary Fund figures.
One advantage for the ECB, Mr Derrick argues, is that it has not had to be as aggressive in lifting interest rates – the stronger euro has done its work for it. “But it means that they don’t have the whip hand when it comes to how tight monetary conditions are.”
Still, that would have been true whatever the causes of the euro’s appreciation. Meanwhile, the ECB would argue strongly that, like the US Federal Reserve, it sets monetary policy in the best interests of the geographical region for which it has responsibility.
Talk about the international role of the euro is, anyway, likely to prove inflated, says Holger Schmieding, economist at Bank of America. “Regardless of short-term cyclical fluctuations, the long-term demographic and economic prospects for the US economy and currency are better than for the eurozone. Once the dollar has hit its cyclical bottom, talk of the euro dethroning it will die down.”
So why does it continue to be tried here in the USA?
The Euro coin is a very poorly designed monetary instrument. The first thing that comes to mind it that because of a poorly selected alloy and too much nickle content, cashiers and others who are required to handle it have to wear rubber gloves or develop skin rashes from the nickle.
It's a huge package that has been being incrementally sold to the American people since at least 1913. The Federal income tax, Federal control of the skools, Social (in)Security, the so-called "minimum wage", etc. Those pushing for Socialism have successfully dumbed down a sufficient percentage of the population that I now think that full blown Socialism could become a reality in the USA within my lifetime. We're already far more socialistic than the founding fathers ever intended and virtually ever social ill that plagues us can be traced back to those previously mentioned events. What has not been told to the masses is Socialism only really benefits those at the very top. About 50% of the US population is now too stupid and or ignorant to realize that, and as such, we are headed at a brick wall at about 120 mph.....and the aftermath will take decades to clean up....
Something's got to crack in the Euro-zone. Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece are all headed for serious financial trouble. The high Euro is killing their relatively small export business and their overspending is requiring borrowing at very high interest rates.
Meanwhile, those who refused to join the Euro (UK, Scandinavians, etc.) are quite happy with their own traditional currencies which rise and fall as economic conditions dictate. They've realized that they can still trade quite easily with the continent -- a common currency isn't all that it was cracked up to be.
That hasn't gone unnoticed.
“Vengence is mine” saith W.
“You screwed with me to protect thy markets. Enjoy life without markets”
“All Thy markets are mine”
Rats like a strong $$$ because it enables them to stay longer in Europe where they would rather be anyway
oops.....
should be: “all thy markets belong to me”
If the Euro wants to be the world’s new reserve currency, the EU can have it. This article seems to indicate that Europe doesn’t want it.
For a long time, the British pound was the de facto medium of worldwide exchange. After WWII, the US dollar took over that role, one of many instances where the child (the US) took over some of the obligations of an aging parent (the UK).
Every nation on Earth that isn’t the US has the freedom to adjust the volume and value of its currency for economic benefit, but for half a century the US has had to deal with the fact that tweaking the dollar could destabilize the global economy.
Having the dollar as the preferred medium for international exchange is good for bragging rights, but is more a burden than a boon. International terrorist organizations have elaborate plants set up to counterfeit US dollars, something the US has had to fight. There was never a booming market for counterfeit Lira outside of Italy.
If the Euro becomes the preferred reserve and exchange currency, in the short term the dollar will drop further in value. In the long term, the Fed will no longer be tethered to international concerns. The US will be free to tweak its currency, just like everyone else. The Euro can have that if it wants it. Be careful what you wish for.
The main reason other countries want to keep their money in the U.S. (currency) is because the U.S. is the biggest, baddest muh-ther-humper in the world.
It is precisely because of our nuclear arsenal umbrella that people WANT to keep their 'treasure' in U.S. denominations. It is an insurance policy, sort of like keeping your gold in Fort Knox.
The rich Arabs don't want to keep their fortunes locked into the Euro... because Europe might just break apart or squabble into pieces in the near future.
Just look at history and you will see the future.
Name one country (civilization) in history which was dominate and had a weak currency.
A weak dollar means higher prices (inflation) for all Americans.
“and the euro has overtaken the dollar as the main denomination of international debt issues.”
This says volumes.
It seems obvious that reserves right now are slowly being moved out of the dollar, and some of that into the euro, but it is such a long process that no one wants to talk it up, but the number of prominent groups, countries, and others talking about this clearly says this is a front-burner issue for all major currency holders.
“It is precisely because of our nuclear arsenal umbrella that people WANT to keep their ‘treasure’ in U.S. denominations.”
True, but they don’t want to have their money in the currency of a country which is monetizing its debt while running a monstrous deficit and letting its currency fall 10%+ annualized.
I am surprised that no one is talking about the fact we are importing our inflation via this currency devaluation. People’s savings are losing buying power at a disturbing rate. It’s not argentina 2002, but it is quite a betrayal of the citizens by washington.
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