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Washington Post-ABC News Poll (Fred Thompson surging in Iowa!)
The Washington Post ^ | Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Posted on 11/21/2007 11:56:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 400 Iowans likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a five percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent --snip--

4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct? Democratic caucus Republican caucus 11/18/07 0 100 7/31/07 0 100

5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support? NET LEANED VOTE: (Continued)

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: Tennessee
KEYWORDS: advertising; caucuses; conservatives; election; electionpresident; elections; endorsements; fredthompson; gop; ia2008; nrlc; nrtl; polls; republicans; righttolife; valuesvoters
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To: snarkybob
"My question was how is a 3rd place finish in Iowa perceived to be a plus for FDT? Fred was trending upward before he officially entered the race, in the past month he’s mostly trended down, and the endorsement hasn’t as yet provided a major bump. At what point does FDT have to either take frontrunner status, or at the very least be alone in 2nd place?"

Mitt Romney has already built a huge organization in Iowa, where getting people to the caucuses is key (see the Ames straw poll). Mike Huckabee will be a natural candidate for the evangelicals that vote for the man they perceive as being "most Christian" or like them. Senator Thompson needs the undecideds, the people that won't vote for Mitt or Rudy and the religious that know how phony & liberal Huckabee truly is (Jimmy Carter--the sequel). With the lowered expectations and Fox News saying "Fred ids dead" 3rd place will shake up the campaign, allowing Fred to surge forward in the South, his natural habitat.

61 posted on 11/21/2007 12:43:22 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: RockinRight

Huckabee has big support from a popular talk show host in Iowa, primarily for his religious background and stand on abortion. I understand that’s his biggest asset in the state.

If you dig down into the rest of the poll it shows terrorism and national security the top issue and illegal immigration second. The problem for Huckabee is that he’s definitely on the wrong side on illegal immigration (a requirement in a state where Tyson is about the largest employer) and I think he’s also weak on terrorism/national security. There have been a slew of articles recently that illegal immigration is getting to be a top shelf issue and that his record will be overwhelmingly viewed negatively by folks in Iowa (they’re wanting enforcement and border control). Cedar Rapids is driving some of this because their city council is talking about declaring it a sanctuary city. Fred is running ads, particularly in Iowa, and pushing hard on illegal immigration. He’s also tagged Huckabee, I think effectively, as a “pro life liberal.”

After all of the negative attacks on Fred by the MSM he’s in a position to overcome artificially low expectations with even a strong 3rd, let alone a 2nd or first place finish. If he wins Iowa outright I think the nomination is almost automatically his. He’ll publicly write off New Hampshire as a “favorite son” done deal for Romney and move his resources to the South and mop up there.


62 posted on 11/21/2007 12:44:45 PM PST by Phsstpok (When you don't know where you are, but you don't care, you're not lost, you're exploring!)
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To: RockinRight
Fred can take about half of Huckabee’s support and siphon off a little of Mitt’s and Rudy’s and win this thing.

Huckabee's and Mitt's...yes, Rudy's...no. There are indeed Republicans who are pro-abort -- they're called rinos and Rudy is the man for them -- no question about it.

The problem is some conservatives see and hear what Mitt is saying and that he says it very well and they want to believe he's genuine... but they need to wake up and smell the coffee!!

All they have to do is a little research and a little soul searching.

As for the Huckster... he may be alright but I still believe Fred is the better candidate. Plus... I just fear what the Clintoon machine might have on him.

63 posted on 11/21/2007 12:45:44 PM PST by rhinohunter (Thompson/Steele '08)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

In related news, The Michigan SC ruled today that the MI primary is back on for Jan 15th.

Believe it of not, that is bad news for Romney because RAT crossover will deside the outcome on the Republican side.

Which likely means Ron Paul wins and shows Romney unable to carry his native state.

It also means the NH primary will be moved up.


64 posted on 11/21/2007 12:46:05 PM PST by Beagle8U (FreeRepublic -- One stop shopping ....... Its the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: Phsstpok

Do you mean Jan Michelson on WHO Radio?


65 posted on 11/21/2007 12:46:54 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: Beagle8U

That’s the last appeal, right?

The Michigan primary is final, right?


66 posted on 11/21/2007 12:48:06 PM PST by Petronski (Reject the liberal troika: romney, giuliani, mccain)
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To: snarkybob
"Let me start by stating that I don’t have a candidate yet."

Haven't read past this line yet, just going on record to say that the following is something negative about Fred. I could be wrong tho!

reading

there we go! 2nd coming, check. no fire, check

I'm getting good at this! lol

67 posted on 11/21/2007 12:48:32 PM PST by sweet_diane (Adoption, the beautiful alternative.)
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To: Petronski

That is what the Michigan SC said today and I don’t think there is a court that can overrule them.

I just got that in an email from the state party chairman.


68 posted on 11/21/2007 12:50:39 PM PST by Beagle8U (FreeRepublic -- One stop shopping ....... Its the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: sweet_diane

“there we go! 2nd coming, check. no fire, check”

So your position is that Fred wasn’t hyped as the “One”

and learn to read....I didn’t say anything about Freds fire, I said his campaign has yet to catch fire.


69 posted on 11/21/2007 12:51:31 PM PST by snarkybob
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To: traditional1

Well....my candidate (Paul) had a 300 percent increase.....so I guess I can be charitable and concede that the 15 percent increase in the support of your candidate is a “surge.”


70 posted on 11/21/2007 12:55:22 PM PST by Captain Kirk
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m all for Fred but this gives the real surge a bad name.


71 posted on 11/21/2007 12:56:04 PM PST by ari-freedom (Scientific consensus is formed by the public schools and government grants.)
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To: snarkybob
Actually, I was told Ron Paul was 'The One'. Then I was told Guiliani was 'The One'.

Fred Thompson was the one I WISHED would run, but didn't think he would.

72 posted on 11/21/2007 12:56:43 PM PST by sweet_diane (Adoption, the beautiful alternative.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The real news in this poll is a huge Huckabee surge. How depressing. Thompson is shown going from 13% to 15%, hardly a surge.


73 posted on 11/21/2007 1:01:32 PM PST by ModelBreaker
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To: RockinRight

lets see....

1. the MSM has TOTALLY blacked out all Thompson commentary.

2. FNC has totally gone into whoring for Giuliani. Luntz, who can’t even grasp the simple concept Hillary Clinton is in deed and FACT a socialist, has pronounced Thompsons campaign as DOA. The FNC all stars have now declared Thompson DOA. Shaun Hanity, but buddy of Giuliani, has said Giuliani is the only viable nominee.

3. CNN and PMSNBC only report Giuliani vs Hillary or report Giulaini and “the other guys” or just report on ronpaul or huckabee.

4. C-Span seminar callers have now switch to “I used to be a republican but I switch to independent and will vote for huckabee...or ronpaul”

5. IOW there is no avenue for the Thompson message to get out. none. The internet is not dominant enough for raw news and face time. The MSM has that still locked up.


74 posted on 11/21/2007 1:02:12 PM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: ModelBreaker

Agree.


75 posted on 11/21/2007 1:02:16 PM PST by GOP_Lady
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To: ModelBreaker

Huckabee is hoping for a slingshot effect from this.

Newsflash, huckabee is not going to play in the south.

No more hope arkansas paaaaahleeeeez.


76 posted on 11/21/2007 1:05:38 PM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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Comment #77 Removed by Moderator

To: sweet_diane

“Fred Thompson was the one I WISHED would run, but didn’t think he would.”

Well, he’s running now. I just see him trending down, at what point does he have to be running either first or second.


78 posted on 11/21/2007 1:06:13 PM PST by snarkybob
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To: stephenjohnbanker
Wake up America! Huckabee is a turd!

It's the other candidates' job to wake up the voters. I see that Huckster scores most strongly on "best understands the problems of people like you", "is the most honest and trustworthy", and "Social issues, such as abortion and gay civil unions". Clearly, there is a Huck surge in Iowa, and to counter it, his opponents are going to have to attack those perceived strengths.

79 posted on 11/21/2007 1:10:56 PM PST by hunter112 (Change will happen when very good men are forced to do very bad things.)
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To: Captain Kirk
Good! The lefties are hoping and voting for Paul in the Primaries, no doubt.

Your screen name suggests you would be a Paul supporter, I think.....

80 posted on 11/21/2007 1:11:05 PM PST by traditional1
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