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U.S. report finds U.S. intel consistently wrong on China buildup
World Tribune ^ | Wednesday, November 21, 2007 | East-Asia-Intel.com

Posted on 11/21/2007 10:42:53 AM PST by maddog55

A congressional commission on China reported last week that U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to properly assess Beijing's military buildup and capabilities and were taken by surprise on key developments, including new submarines built in secret.

“The pace and success of China’s military modernization continue to exceed U.S. government estimates,” stated the annual report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“Indeed, on occasion the U.S. defense and intelligence communities have been taken by surprise, as in the case of the launching of the Jin class submarine by the navy of the People’s Liberation Army.”

The criticism was a slap at pro-China U.S. intelligence officials, including Thomas Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, National Intelligence Officer for East Asia Lonnie Henley, a protégé of convicted China spy Ronald Montaperto, and Dennis Wilder, a CIA official who is now the National Security Council staff senior director for Asia.

“Several Chinese advances have surprised U.S. defense and intelligence officials, and raised questions about the quality of our assessments of China’s military capabilities,” the commission report said.

China also could launch up to 10 new Shang-class nuclear attack submarines by next year.

The Jin submarine, also known as the Type 094, is a new class of ballistic missile submarine. It was first photographed in the water in late 2006 moored in Xiaopingdao Submarine Base.

The submarine is believed to be equipped with 12 advanced JL-2 SLBMs with a range of about 8,000 kilometers.

“China’s defense industry is producing new generations of weapons platforms with impressive speed and quality, and these advancements are due in part to the highly effective manner in which Chinese defense companies are integrating commercial technologies into military systems,” the report said.

“Industrial espionage provides Chinese companies an added source of new technology without the necessity of investing time or money to perform research.”


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: china
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To: Captain Rhino
Delivering a dozen nuclear attack submarines in a single year seems fast, perhaps a little too fast for the Chinese.

Not really when you consider the price of metals and oil are through the roof due the Chinese using their glut of American dollars to buy up all the strategic resources they can get their hands on.

And it's not like they have a labor shortage over there....

They are working as fast as they can to become THE un-challengeable superpower in Asia. And they are doing with the help of gullible American consumers.

21 posted on 11/21/2007 11:19:43 AM PST by PsyOp (Truth in itself is rarely sufficient to make men act. - Clauswitz, On War, 1832.)
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To: VOA

It’s not limited to just the CIA.. we need to beef up all of our intelligence agencies especially on the HUMINT side which went to hell after the fall of the USSR... The following also happened recently and this is the 2nd time this has happened.

Chinese Sub Pops Up Undetected in U.S. Navy Exercise
Submitted by Julie on November 10, 2007 - 11:11am.

Recently, when a Chinese submarine popped up undetected in the middle of a Pacific Ocean exercise, dangerously close to the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk, American military chiefs were left dumbfounded and red-faced, according to UK newspaper, Daily Mail.

When the Navy deploys a battle fleet on exercises, they take the security of the aircraft carriers very seriously. At least a dozen warships are used to provide a physical guard, and using advanced technology they are able to detect and deter any potential intruders.

By the time the Chinese sub surfaced, the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missles at the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk, a 1,000ft. supercarrier with 4,500 military personnel onboard.

According to senior Nato officials, the incident caused a sense of sudden fear in the U.S. Navy, as officials realized the seriousness of the encounter. The U.S. apparently had no idea just how sophisticated China’s fast-growing submarine fleet had become, or that they even posed such a threat.

Reportedly, one Nato figure said that the effect was “as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik”. The Sputnik, if you remember, was the Soviet Union’s first orbiting satellite launched in 1957 which marked the beginning of the space age and kicked off the space race.

The U.S. Navy’s brush with the Chinese Navy’s submarine occurred in the Pacific Ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan. The one sub was able to slip past at least a dozen other U.S. warships that were in place to ward off any hostile aircraft or submarines. Two submarines were also in place, along with other advanced technology, which also failed to detect the intruding watercraft.

The U.S. Navy and Nato are now forced to re-think their strategy, and reconsider the level of threat posed from potentially hostile Chinese submarines.

While China insists that the incident was a simple coincidence, others are not so sure about that. The run-in led to some intense diplomatic exchanges, with rattled American diplomats demanding to know why Chinese subs were shadowing the U.S. fleet.

Analysts believe that China was sending a message to the United States and the West by demonstrating their rapidly growing military capability to threaten foreign powers that might try to interfere in their own “backyard.”

As a citizen of the United States, it may leave you wondering if we are really as safe as we think we are.


22 posted on 11/21/2007 11:28:01 AM PST by maddog55
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To: DoughtyOne

“I have predicted this exact circumstance for more than a decade. We’ll be funding China until the bullets fly. And those who made fortunes off trade with China will slip back into the woodwork like the human roaches they are.”

I know it and that is what is so maddening about the entire situation. While the rest of Americans fight for daily survival to eat and get necessary things like medication and heat to stay alive, these people will be sitting in fenced in palaces listening to Jimmi Hendrix, smoking a J and eating some nice steaks.


23 posted on 11/21/2007 11:28:49 AM PST by quant5
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To: maddog55

I had read a report at one time that addressed the issue of the world’s population and how much of that population lived within 100 miles of a sea shore.

At another time, there had been some incident that made it clear China was a growing threat, and that their subs could become a very big problem.

I surmised that a few well placed subs could produce a massive amount of U.S. casualties.

When I did this, I had a Navy guy respond that I didn’t know what the hell I was talking about. Why they knew where every Chinese sub was day and night, and not a one of them could get viably close to our shores without the Navy knowing about it.

We got into one of these, you don’t support the military and you don’t know your blank from a hole in the ground arguements.

Now this.

I don’t know what is more disconcerting, that we can’t know everything and acknowledge it, or that we think we do and won’t acknowedge the possibility that we don’t.

I’m leaning toward the latter.


24 posted on 11/21/2007 11:38:16 AM PST by DoughtyOne (California, where the death penalty is reserved for wholesome values. SB 777)
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To: maddog55; Jeff Head; Paul Ross

I have not been surprised. And it probably comes as no surprise that for the past 6 years, Panda Huggers, Red Team idiots and other TRAITORS (THAT’S RIGHT.... THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE IN THESE GROUPS ... TRAITORS! ALL OF YOU, TO THE LAST MAN!) have been sliming me for telling the truth.


25 posted on 11/21/2007 12:01:42 PM PST by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Take Back The GOP!)
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To: maddog55

Whenever your foreign policy is dictated as per rioting college students and that policy is appeasement, you are gonna get screwed. Sometimes it just takes longer to feel the penetration.


26 posted on 11/21/2007 12:26:48 PM PST by Cyman
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To: maddog55

Sending all our scrap metal to Japan doesn’t mean a thing. It’s all a part of doing business, opening trading channels to Asia, and making a buck. Oh, wait a minute. Wrong country, wrong century. Never mind.


27 posted on 11/21/2007 12:28:50 PM PST by Gritty (Liberals are always fighting the last battle as the current battle is too frightening-Ann Coulter)
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To: maddog55

“As a citizen of the United States, it may leave you wondering if
we are really as safe as we think we are.”

That’s a constant concern.
And that Chinese sub “pop-up” surely looks like a danger sign.

I hope all the voices of concern from the US Navy are more about
mis-information. And that the folks LET the Chinese sub in close for
gathering information (sonic signature, nice photos up-close of
the sub, maybe even other sensing methods not known outside some very
small and covert circles of the US Military).

If the Chinese had the sub surface near the US ships to get a “photo-op”
for the big-shots in Beijing, it was should be a short-lived time
of rejoicing for the Chi-coms. Now the US Navy knows about a problem
and will be working 24/7 to rectify the situation.

That sub incident might just be “what the doctor ordered” for keeping
a military sharp: “equal doses of humility and fear”


28 posted on 11/21/2007 1:43:41 PM PST by VOA
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To: DoughtyOne

Nixon opened the damn door to trade PERIOD and helped drag them into the 20th century

That led to getting spys into the country

And his DETENTE was S&%$canned by Reagan .His China policy should have been also


29 posted on 11/21/2007 1:47:30 PM PST by uncbob (m first)
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To: uncbob

Thanks for the additional comments uncbob.


30 posted on 11/21/2007 1:58:26 PM PST by DoughtyOne (California, where the death penalty is reserved for wholesome values. SB 777)
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To: uncbob

I agree with you totally.

Everytime I hear somebody interview that bloated, pompous, overblown gasbag Kissinger, I get steamed.

We created the Frankenstein facaing us and it started with Nixon, better yet - Truman. McArthur was right.


31 posted on 11/21/2007 2:00:35 PM PST by ZULU (Non nobis, non nobis Domine, sed nomini tuo da gloriam. God, guts and guns made America great.)
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To: ZULU
Everytime I hear somebody interview that bloated, pompous, overblown gasbag Kissinger, I get steamed.

Especially when he tries to take some credit for winning the Cold War

I still remember when he was pushing Nixon's DETENTE

That BLEEP came out and said the Soviet Union was going to be on the winning side and it was up to him and Nixon to get the best deal possible for the USA

I didn't know whether to cry or scream
32 posted on 11/21/2007 3:56:13 PM PST by uncbob (m first)
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To: Doohickey; SmithL

{{ping}}


33 posted on 11/21/2007 5:45:29 PM PST by BIGLOOK (Keelhauling is a sensible solution to mutiny.)
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To: BIGLOOK

We’ll school these clowns just like we did the USSR.

Provided we have the cojones to do it again. Which, sadly, I’m unsure of.

If we do, go ahead and put me on the section tracking party.


34 posted on 11/21/2007 6:08:31 PM PST by Doohickey (Giuliani: Brokeback Republican)
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To: Doohickey
It's not that we are unaware of where they come from.


35 posted on 11/21/2007 6:17:57 PM PST by BIGLOOK (Keelhauling is a sensible solution to mutiny.)
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To: maddog55

This has got to be crap.

It doesn’t even take a government analyst to put two-and-two together to guess China will use some of that new found money to upgrade and build-out.


36 posted on 11/21/2007 8:19:09 PM PST by VeniVidiVici (No buy China!!)
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To: Duchess47; jahp; LilAngel; metmom; EggsAckley; Battle Axe; SweetCaroline; Grizzled Bear; ...
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
”Made in China” Ping.

(Please FReepmail me if you would like to be on or off of the list.)
37 posted on 11/22/2007 4:38:56 AM PST by JACKRUSSELL
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To: DoughtyOne
And those who made fortunes off trade with China will slip back into the woodwork like the human roaches they are.>/i>

My fantasy is they are in China when the crap hits the fan and they are rounded up and shot and their families are Fed Exd a bill for the bullit.

38 posted on 11/22/2007 4:43:29 AM PST by am452 (If you don't stand behind our troops feel free to stand in front of them!!)
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To: maddog55

I think a blind man could see what’s going on.


39 posted on 11/22/2007 4:45:56 AM PST by toddlintown (Five bullets and Lennon goes down. Yet not one hit Yoko. Discuss.)
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To: DoughtyOne
And those who made fortunes off trade with China will slip back into the woodwork like the human roaches they are.

My fantasy is they are in China when the crap hits the fan and they are rounded up and shot and their families are Fed Exd a bill for the bullit.

40 posted on 11/22/2007 4:48:13 AM PST by am452 (If you don't stand behind our troops feel free to stand in front of them!!)
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