Survey USA: Oregon

Survey USA ^ | 11/20/07 | Survey USA

[Norman Bates]

Versus Hillary (best to worst):

48% McCain (+4) 45% Clinton (-4) 7% Undecided

45% Giuliani (0) 46% Clinton (-4) 10% Undecided

44% Romney (+7) 48% Clinton (-9) 8% Undecided

40% Huckabee (+4) 50% Clinton (-6) 10% Undecided

Versus Obama:

45% McCain 45% Obama 10% Undecided

40% Giuliani (-6) 51% Obama (+5) 9% Undecided

37% Romney (+2) 52% Obama (-1) 11% Undecided

33% Huckabee 54% Obama 13% Undecided

Data Collected: 11/09/2007 - 11/11/2007
Release Date: 11/20/2007 11:50 AM ET
Sponsor: KATU-TV Portland
Sample: 523 registered voters
MoE: ±4.4%

Trend from previous polls in parens (Clinton, 10/26; Obama, 9/28).

[Norman Bates]

SUSA chose not to poll Fred in this batch. I have no idea why.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I do. Part of the concerted media effort to pretend that either Fred’s campaign doesn’t exist or badmouthing his campaign as non-existent. It’s why they fear him the most. If the media thought he’d lose badly against Hillary, they’d be pushing his candidacy.

[CharlesWayneCT]

That’s like 5 polls that show that Hillary is tanking while Obama is unbeatable.

And all we seem to talk about here is why Thompson isn’t in the poll, and how it’s some vast conspiracy against him.

We could instead be seeing that we are attacking the wrong opponent.

Also, McCain is really crushing. If the NRLC was looking for the “candidate that can beat hillary”, he looks like he’s their man.

[Norman Bates]

The McCain List.
Common sense conservatism

[Norman Bates]

Ping

[Norman Bates]

McCain certainly is. I’ve been watching you. ;)

Been making good observations on my threads! I like that...

[Norman Bates]

DJ, I know how you feel. I hate it when my guy’s left of as well. My personal theory is they are mixing up their candidates a bit in the last three polls. Probably just Fred’s “turn” this time, who knows...

Good man. I wish him the best.

[furquhart]

I agree. I’ve been thinking about this for a good while.

[LS]

NO, it’s because in those SurveyUSA polls where they included him, he came in fourth. Maybe he’s fading further.

[LS]

More evidence of the Clinton fade. Now Rudy and Romney are within MOE. I have to think the reason McClame does so well in these is that SurveyUSA must oversample independents, because they consistently have him higher than any other poll (except yesterday’s FL Ras poll).

[CharlesWayneCT]

It's possible. But if we assume the poll is accurate and look for a reason, it could be:

1) most republicans don't really care about mccain/feingold or worse see how bad the money in politics is and agree that something had to be done,

2)the further we get from the summer fight over illegals the more people forget McCain's previous position and buy his new onw,

3)most republicans don't remember or care that much about the gang-of-14, or consider that a compromise that lead to getting 2 great supreme court justices when the dems were previously filibustering everybody.

4) The war is beginning to turn, and everybody associates McCain with "staying till the job is done", so he benefits most from good Iraq news.

5) McCain and Fred are good buddies, in many ways they appear similar at the shallow level the average voters looks at races, Fred saved those voters from making decisions for other candidates by capturing the faltering McCain support, and now that he is fading they are jumping back to McCain.

I feel I must add the disclaimer that the term "fading" in item 5 is a description of the perception of the average voter, OR a description of the perception that Fred voters are moving elsewhere, and does not express either my view of reality or my desire. I don't necessarily believe my disclaimer but I feel this disclaimer may protect me from untoward attacks for not having appropriately honored a candidate.

[aroundabout]

Maybe it is time to face reality. Thompson is not doing well and even Fred Barnes and and the entire Fox panel have him dead last or close to it. No one has ruled him out but the consensusnseems to be it will take the equivalent of a completed “Hail Mary” for him to succeed.

[LS]

I think your assessment is pretty accurate. However, if, as Rush says, the next election will be about illegals and taxes, then McCain is 50% dead. If he begins to move in the primaries, I’ll expect both Romney and Rudy to open up on him over illegals (not that they don’t have some big question marks, but nothing compared to him).

[fieldmarshaldj]

Where are you living, Mars ?

[LS]

I’m living in middle America, OH, where I WORK on Republican campaigns, which means on a regular basis I head stuff from the various Republican party officers at the county and local level who seem to know what’s going on. They sure did in 2006.

[fieldmarshaldj]

You head “stuff”, huh ? Let’s see, Mr. Ohio, then you of all people should know what pushing RINOs and their so-called “leadership” (would that be you ?) has done for your state party’s fortunes. Rudy McRombee is a loser.

[jwatzzzzz]

Oregon is a Progressive Cesspool. If the numbers are close in Oregon, then the Democrats are in big trouble.

[LS]

Um, last time I looked we "pushed" Ken Blackwell, simply the most conservative guy Ohio has run in the last 20 years . . . and he got creamed. DeWine, who had an ACU rating in the mid 80s, got whipped.

But keep telling yourself Rudy is a "loser" when he beats your boy Fred in primary after primary. Oh, I forgot, by then the mantra will be "he's not conservative enough" to win a general election, even though the base seems to be rejecting the supposedly more conservative Fred.

And what ever you think of OH, come next Nov. you'll be on your knees begging it goes GOP, because we WILL be the single most important battleground state.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Um, last time I looked we "pushed" Ken Blackwell, simply the most conservative guy Ohio has run in the last 20 years . . . and he got creamed. DeWine, who had an ACU rating in the mid 80s, got whipped."

Yeah, Blackwell who was undermined by the crooked RINO Establishment at every turn and had the unfortunate situation of having to run under the same party level a majority of voting Ohioans believed to be unethical or corrupt. As for DeWine, Taft helped bring him down as he did with Blackwell, but DeWine's weasel behavior also did him in.

"But keep telling yourself Rudy is a "loser" when he beats your boy Fred in primary after primary."

Let's see them go at it mano a mano, Hoss. Rudy COULD win the nomination, and I never said he couldn't. I said he WILL lose the general election if he is nominated.

"Oh, I forgot, by then the mantra will be "he's not conservative enough" to win a general election, even though the base seems to be rejecting the supposedly more conservative Fred."

The "base" isn't rejecting Fred, it's just there are a lot of seriously misinformed people splitting the vote amongst different candidates. The media is doing its damndest to assure the split continues so we can put up a liberal nominee. Rather what you are aiding and abetting right now.

"And what ever you think of OH, come next Nov. you'll be on your knees begging it goes GOP, because we WILL be the single most important battleground state."

I know that it is, and never claimed otherwise. But you guys need to clean up your act and get rid of your damnable RINO leadership. If you hadn't noticed, you seriously blew it earlier this month with the Mayoral contests. Ah, but at least you picked up Newark, right ?