If you ask me, the Court has already tipped thier hands by substituting "state-regulated" for "well regulated.
They are going to come down on the side of a collective right. The fix is in.
OTOH, I do not have much faith in the judiciary these days. It seems as if there is just too much graft and fraud upon the court at the lower courts. My sense is that everyone knows it is going on but the courts being relatively self-regulating, and lawyers and court reporters concerned for their licenses, one does not hear much about it in the open. Since all the SC justices came up through the lower ranks, they are at a minimum aware of this and in the worst case they profited from it.
Neither the trial lawyers nor the tort reform corporate advocates, the two main heavies in the court systems these days, have much to gain from letting the 2A floodgates open.
So a lot of pressure will be brought to bear through back channels on individual justices to reject the standard model.
And by pressure, I mean real pressure, the kind that does not go away and that causes one to lay awake at night.
Connect the dots, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.
Is it possible the SCOTUS is differentiating because, when all is said and done, DC might be state-like but is NOT a state? After all, there's no DC National Guard. Or do you think I'm being too optimistic?