The whole 1976 "McGovern wins New Hampshire, now all the Democratic-sheep will vote for him" bathos so beloved by political reporters (including Hugh) is B.S.
This election has had a year of run up! 10 debates!! People have made up their own damn minds and are not waiting with baited breath to see that New Hampshire loves a liberal Republican from Mass. (Big Surprise, THAT!).
Anyone remember the administration of President Tsongas? President Dukakis? I didn't think so.
You also have to credit his "bigot" theory, which he has several hours a day to trot out on his radio show. Wherein anyone not voting for Mitt because of his Mormonism is a "bigot". We'll Hugh can bully and call names on his radio show, but in the privacy of the ballot box I think many Americans will make different choices than Dr. Harvard Law suggests they make.
Ultimately Hugh is a neo-con, so he's supporting one of the two neo-con candidates. Loudly.
Here is Rasmussan daily. It shows a dead tie between all four of the "not Rudy" candidates. The only real trend I see recently is Rudy stepping away from the lot of them.
|
Republican Candidates
|
Democratic Candidates
|
|||||||||
|
Date |
Giuliani |
Thompson |
Romney |
McCain |
Huckabee |
Date |
Clinton |
Obama |
Edwards |
Date |
|
11/16/07 |
29% |
12% |
12% |
10% |
12% |
11/16/07 |
41% |
24% |
14% |
11/16/07 |
|
11/15/07 |
28% |
11% |
13% |
11% |
11% |
11/15/07 |
41% |
22% |
14% |
11/15/07 |
|
11/14/07 |
26% |
12% |
17% |
13% |
11% |
11/14/07 |
42% |
20% |
13% |
11/14/07 |
|
11/13/07 |
27% |
11% |
16% |
13% |
11% |
11/13/07 |
41% |
20% |
17% |
11/13/07 |
|
11/12/07 |
27% |
14% |
14% |
13% |
10% |
11/12/07 |
43% |
20% |
16% |
11/12/07 |
|
11/11/07 |
27% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
10% |
11/11/07 |
43% |
20% |
17% |
11/11/07 |
|
11/10/07 |
26% |
15% |
11% |
12% |
9% |
11/10/07 |
42% |
20% |
18% |
11/10/07 |
|
11/09/07 |
23% |
16% |
11% |
13% |
9% |
11/09/07 |
44% |
19% |
15% |
11/09/07 |
|
11/08/07 |
23% |
15% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
11/08/07 |
41% |
22% |
15% |
11/08/07 |
|
11/07/07 |
24% |
17% |
12% |
12% |
13% |
11/07/07 |
39% |
21% |
16% |
11/07/07 |
|
11/06/07 |
24% |
16% |
11% |
13% |
14% |
11/06/07 |
40% |
21% |
15% |
11/06/07 |
|
11/05/07 |
23% |
18% |
11% |
15% |
12% |
11/05/07 |
41% |
22% |
13% |
11/05/07 |
|
11/04/07 |
23% |
17% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
11/04/07 |
42% |
21% |
13% |
11/04/07 |
|
11/03/07 |
21% |
17% |
12% |
15% |
12% |
11/03/07 |
43% |
22% |
11% |
11/03/07 |
|
11/02/07 |
23% |
18% |
13% |
13% |
10% |
11/02/07 |
43% |
21% |
11% |
11/02/07 |
|
11/01/07 |
24% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
10% |
11/01/07 |
43% |
20% |
12% |
11/01/07 |
|
10/31/07 |
24% |
16% |
14% |
11% |
12% |
10/31/07 |
41% |
22% |
14% |
10/31/07 |
|
10/30/07 |
24% |
17% |
14% |
12% |
12% |
10/30/07 |
42% |
22% |
14% |
10/30/07 |
|
10/29/07 |
23% |
17% |
12% |
13% |
13% |
10/29/07 |
44% |
21% |
14% |
10/29/07 |
|
10/28/07 |
22% |
19% |
12% |
14% |
13% |
10/28/07 |
44% |
21% |
13% |
10/28/07 |
|
10/27/07 |
21% |
18% |
10% |
15% |
12% |
10/27/07 |
46% |
18% |
13% |
10/27/07 |
|
10/26/07 |
20% |
19% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
10/26/07 |
46% |
18% |
14% |
10/26/07 |
|
10/25/07 |
21% |
19% |
12% |
14% |
10% |
10/25/07 |
47% |
19% |
14% |
10/25/07 |
|
10/24/07 |
22% |
18% |
15% |
14% |
9% |
10/24/07 |
46% |
19% |
15% |
10/24/07 |
|
10/23/07 |
23% |
19% |
15% |
14% |
9% |
10/23/07 |
47% |
22% |
13% |
10/23/07 |
|
10/22/07 |
24% |
19% |
16% |
12% |
8% |
10/22/07 |
49% |
22% |
12% |
10/22/07 |
|
10/21/07 |
24% |
19% |
15% |
11% |
8% |
10/21/07 |
46% |
23% |
13% |
10/21/07 |
|
10/20/07 |
23% |
20% |
14% |
11% |
8% |
10/20/07 |
45% |
24% |
13% |
10/20/07 |
|
10/19/07 |
24% |
21% |
14% |
11% |
8% |
10/19/07 |
43% |
25% |
14% |
10/19/07 |
|
10/18/07 |
25% |
19% |
14% |
11% |
9% |
10/18/07 |
44% |
24% |
11% |
10/18/07 |
|
10/17/07 |
27% |
21% |
14% |
10% |
7% |
10/17/07 |
43% |
24% |
11% |
10/17/07 |
|
10/16/07 |
30% |
21% |
13% |
10% |
7% |
10/16/07 |
44% |
23% |
11% |
10/16/07 |
|
10/15/07 |
29% |
23% |
13% |
9% |
8% |
10/15/07 |
45% |
22% |
11% |
10/15/07 |
|
10/14/07 |
30% |
22% |
14% |
8% |
6% |
10/14/07 |
49% |
22% |
12% |
10/14/07 |
|
10/13/07 |
30% |
18% |
14% |
10% |
7% |
10/13/07 |
47% |
22% |
13% |
10/13/07 |
|
10/12/07 |
28% |
18% |
14% |
10% |
6% |
10/12/07 |
48% |
24% |
12% |
10/12/07 |
|
10/11/07 |
29% |
18% |
15% |
10% |
6% |
10/11/07 |
45% |
24% |
12% |
10/11/07 |
|
10/10/07 |
27% |
17% |
16% |
11% |
6% |
10/10/07 |
42% |
25% |
13% |
10/10/07 |
|
10/09/07 |
26% |
21% |
15% |
9% |
6% |
10/09/07 |
42% |
26% |
12% |
10/09/07 |
|
10/08/07 |
25% |
23% |
14% |
9% |
6% |
10/08/07 |
42% |
26% |
12% |
10/08/07 |
|
10/07/07 |
23% |
24% |
14% |
9% |
5% |
10/07/07 |
40% |
29% |
12% |
10/07/07 |
|
10/06/07 |
21% |
22% |
15% |
10% |
5% |
10/06/07 |
41% |
28% |
11% |
10/06/07 |
|
10/05/07 |
19% |
21% |
16% |
11% |
4% |
10/05/07 |
42% |
27% |
12% |
10/05/07 |
|
10/04/07 |
20% |
22% |
17% |
11% |
5% |
10/04/07 |
43% |
26% |
13% |
10/04/07 |
|
10/03/07 |
23% |
22% |
14% |
12% |
5% |
10/03/07 |
44% |
23% |
15% |
10/03/07 |
|
10/02/07 |
22% |
24% |
14% |
12% |
5% |
10/02/07 |
45% |
22% |
14% |
10/02/07 |
|
10/01/07 |
23% |
25% |
13% |
10% |
6% |
10/01/07 |
44% |
22% |
15% |
10/01/07 |
So it does come down to two things: (1) the viability of the candidate, which only Mitt Romney has demonstrated among the socially conservative candidates, and (2) whether social conservatives will have the courage to rally around the only viable social conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani. A divided field means that Giuliani is likely to win the nomination. This is our choice to make, and we don't have long to make it.
The point is not where Mitt is in National Polls currently. It is where his strategy for winning in this election is going to take him. Right now, he is ahead in three of the first five primary states and nearly there in the other two. If he wins all three, for instance, it will propel him ahead nationally. No other Republican, is in as good a position as Mitt to win the majority of the first five primaries.