Kevmo: That was the whole point to my post, to show that Hunter is extremely undervalued
Kevkrom: By what reasonable analysis?
***By this reasonable analysis: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts?page=1,250
You’re the one touting the efficiency of the futures markets, yet you fail to accept that Hunter’s “potential” is already built into the current trading price.
***Every market has its inefficiencies. That’s why the arbitrage folks can make money. I have found a potential hole that Hunter supporters could get a two-for-one deal on. They get to put their money where their mouth is, see his support rise, and they could make money on the whole process. That has got to be unique in the history of politics.
That price has remained stagnant for four months now — the market has spoken and it says that no one wants to take Hunter at even a potential 1000:1 payout.
***Sounds like a bargain to me. And if the Hunter supporters send out my article to their buddies and someone starts nibbling, we could see some real dynamic changes in that market and some liquidity in his contract price. In the meantime, the same folks will be checking on the forum threads at Intrade and they’ll see reasoned considerations that aren’t even said here on Free Republic.
Hunter Intrade Forum
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Thompson Intrade Forum
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
You want it to be true, so therefore you assume it will be so. But the people who put the time and effort into it and put their own money on the line about it say otherwise.
Take a deep breath, step back from your own biases and assumptions, and realize that Hunter's contract is stagnant at the minimum trading value because there is absolutely no interest in him, and no expectation that the situation will change.