I think Hunter is a better bargain. He currently polls at 4% and if Intrade started to track that you would get 40X return on your investment.
Fred, on the other hand, is the only candidate I know of who has lost ~30 points on Intrade. Probably not as good of a bet.
Uh, no he doesn't. It's not a poll, it's a futures contract.
Trading is not betting. I traded hogs one time because all of the positive signs were there for a buy. Dang, if it didn't go down 900 points in three days. Trading was stopped for three days in a row. I got out quickly, just losing 250 points on the first day. Then the hoggies and traders corrected, and hoggies went north, and did what they were supposed to do.
I know things can turn around for Fred. The markets blink all the time. Just let the market do what the market does best. Fred's going to be our next President, and I hope Duncan Hunter is his VP.
Just give the voters time to do what voters do best. But there are always pitfalls any time you trade. The "Hill-Billies" are an example of that.