[Petronski]

I think Hunter is a better bargain. He currently polls at 4% . . .

Uh, no he doesn't. It's not a poll, it's a futures contract.

[Kevmo]

You misread this post. And I would leave it to the readers to decide whether your accusations were a result of some other misreading.

From my original post:
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

That means Hunter polls at 4%. Hunter’s futures at Intrade, if they were at 4% would not be the kind of bargain I was talking about because you couldn’t get 40X return by tracking to the poll data.

Thanks for bumping the thread.

[Petronski]

Well, what a sucker I am!

The highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 (divide by ten and that’s a penny, folks), but Hunter Duncan actually DID poll at 4% in the notoriously inaccurate ARG, near as I can tell.

That’s the danger here. Fred is quoted at 6% (actually not a polling number, just a futures contract price, and definitely NOT a percentage) and Hunter is quoted at 4% (an actual, albeit shabby, poll) and an apples-to-oranges comparison misleads the reader.

That’s how good—and how dangerous—this lie is, it’s designed to deceive (to play a shell game between the two very different kind of data), and it works.

Let’s review:

Intrade futures contracts:

Fred about $6
Hunter $.1

Rasmussen daily polling:

Fred 12%
Hunter - too low to ascertain, 2% shared with others.

[Slip18]

"It's not a poll, it's a futures contract."

You are right on, Petronski.