Posted on 11/14/2007 4:56:31 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Edited on 11/14/2007 5:12:33 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Well, what a sucker I am!
The highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 (divide by ten and that’s a penny, folks), but Hunter Duncan actually DID poll at 4% in the notoriously inaccurate ARG, near as I can tell.
That’s the danger here. Fred is quoted at 6% (actually not a polling number, just a futures contract price, and definitely NOT a percentage) and Hunter is quoted at 4% (an actual, albeit shabby, poll) and an apples-to-oranges comparison misleads the reader.
That’s how good—and how dangerous—this lie is, it’s designed to deceive (to play a shell game between the two very different kind of data), and it works.
Let’s review:
Intrade futures contracts:
Fred about $6
Hunter $.1
Rasmussen daily polling:
Fred 12%
Hunter - too low to ascertain, 2% shared with others.
It’s all explained at #80.
I’m going to keep reposting that as long as you keep misrepresenting the numbers.
What does Fred mean by ‘Secure our Borders’? Is he supporting the invisible fence border monitoring system or is he supporting the physical double border fence?
That’s how good—and how dangerous—this lie is,
***Yup. What you just posted was either a lie or a mistake. You cc’d Kevkrom, not me. I’ve seen others do that in the hopes that the post would be overlooked.
I will let the readers decide for themselves.
It took you this long to actually start using the data. You said, “highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 “ which means that you consider it highly-predictive and good data. Now, I happen to not like the fact that Hunter is valued so low, but I’m posting Intrade results right & left because they are what they are. But you go around calling me a liar after you’ve posted on the thread where Fred was leading at Intrade and accepting the good news as good data.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts
You and I went round & round on that other thread where it was agreed this was an apples-to-oranges comparison (metaphor put forth by me, not you) and I said it was reasonable as long as I called it fruit. Apples are apples, oranges are oranges, both are fruit. Polling data are polls, Intrade is futures contracts, and both are data.
I think our exchanges should prove educational on the efficacy thread so I think I will copy them over to there.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
There are many issues that Fred talks about and Hunter spends no time talking about. I quit checking his website, but the last time I did there wasn’t much there. Hunter might actually get somewhere if he would criticize himself and figure out what he needs to do better.
Hunter is a johnny come lately on many issues. Fred has been talking about this one since before he declared his candidacy. He is NOT a johnny come lately.
Oh, wait, Hunter is mister perfect, he knows all and sees all./S
Your act is wearing thin.
No, it means I'm a sarcastic SOB.
Polling data are polls, Intrade is futures contracts, and both are data.
But they cannot be compared one to the other. Clearly labeling them.
Comparing Fred at 6% (not a percentage) to Hunter at 4% (a polling percentage) is a lie.
Either compare Intrade futures (.1 for Hunter, 6.x for Fred) or compare poll results (Fred at 11%, Hunter <2%)
Anything else is deceptive, and it has been made abundantly clear to you.
Apples are apples, oranges are oranges, both are fruit.
And in this case, intercomparing them is a lie.
Not a lie or a mistake. I pinged the man I wanted to ping.
YAWN........not this crap again...
Hunter is a johnny come lately on many issues.
***Feel free to post those issues on the Hunter vs. Thompson thread, where they belong.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1925104/posts
This is an immigration thread and Hunter has criticized Thompson for being a johnny-come-lately on this issue, so it is polite to address that aspect on this issue.
He hemmed and hawed on the physical fence. He has no plans to deport the illegal here now either. At least he said “that’s not going to happen” last year. Of course the Road to Des Moines sometimes makes guys act conservative.
No, it means I’m a sarcastic SOB.
***Then that is a retraction? Are you going to retract what you said yesterday when you called it data? I posted much of our exchange over on the efficacy thread where this discussion belongs.
Since you seem to honestly believe that “intercomparing them is a lie”, I will post this over at the efficacy thread also. That’s where it belongs. This is an immigration thread.
Name one thing Hunter is a Johnny come lately on.
I think Fred is for the invisible fence border monitoring system and not the physical fence too because Fred voted for comprehensive alien tracking and identification system in 2002 (H.R. 3525)
That invisible border security is suppose to work WITH the RFID tracking and biometric identifying.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1634891/posts
Company pushes RFID implants for immigrants, guest workers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1796157/posts
Giuliani Partners to provide assistance regarding DNA embedded security solutions
About:
Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act of 2001. H.R. 3525 will significantly reduce future population growth from illegal immigration by making it much harder for temporary visa holders to stay in the country illegally after their visa expire. H.R. 3525 provides for an entry-exit system in which every visa holder is checked with a biometric identifier when he/she enters and leaves the country. This information is included in an integrated database that is shared by the appropriate law-enforcement officials. H.R. 3525 passed the Senate unanimously by a vote of 97-0.
We are working it out on the other thread. Here’s what I have so far, haven’t heard back from Petronski.
To: Petronski
OK, I have modified the post. Let me know if it needs further cleansing.
It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts
Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.
Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts
The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0
37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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35 posted on 11/14/2007 8:29:17 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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Here is one video (”Ask Fred”) where he says he wants the finish the wall on the southern border (”it’s the law”) bit .... then talks about electronic surveillance and patrol “where fencing may not be appropriate”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYsCI4ODFcw
Why don’t we just keep them out in the first place. The Giuliani plan is a wet dream.
Kinda odd that Fred voted for Giuliani’s security plan, no?
Well, as we have seen with more than a few issues, that was then, this is now. LOL
Intrade.com data can be wrong. I remember that on election day 2004 the bettors believed those silly exit polls and had Kerry at 80% to win.
However, intrade.com does consist of real people betting real money. And that’s a bit harder to spin or fake than public opinion polls.
“the morons on intrade”
They’re just bettors and oddsmakers. If they don’t size things up correctly, they’ll lose their money.
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