Posted on 11/14/2007 4:56:31 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Edited on 11/14/2007 5:12:33 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
It's a big day for political TV ads, and in the case of Fred Thompson, he's got great timing. On the same day Rudy Giuliani releases his first TV ad, and the day Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D-N.Y.) decides to withdraw his plan to give illegal immigrants access to driver's licenses, the former Tennessee senator releases a 30-second spot called, "No Amnesty." It starts airing across Iowa today.
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
Not a percentage. You’re lying trying to make Fred look bad. These are not polling percentages, they’re futures prices.
Yep, you were lying yesterday, were notified about it, and are still lying about it today.
I was with Fred yesterday, I am with Fred today, and I will be with Fred till he and Jeri walk into the White House and give Conservatives a new beginning.
Nope. I was not lying yesterday. So I would invite anyone on this particular thread to check the links and see for themselves. Warts and all. The intrade links are the most interesting.
Most certainly a lie. It was only misinformation yesterday, but once you were corrected it and ignored the ccrrection, it became a knowing misrepresentation...i.e., a lie.
I would say...? That Thompson has probably stalled temporarily the exodus, taken people off guard with the NRTL endorsement and from that maybe one could say a small swing of momentum has opened for him to seize.
The question is how he and the people respond. One I don’t have an answer to. he’s the only one in double digits with fair credibility on WOT, Judges, smaller government and amnesty. His candidacy, in my view, is a test of how just where the conservative movement is right now. I haven’t been pleased with the results to that question so far.
You’re right. Again. I think that must be the umpteenth time I’ve said that. They’re futures percentages, which have better predictor value than polling numbers. As you have been notified, and have chosen not to engage on the Efficacy thread, even though you chose to post on the thread where Fred once had the lead. That means you simply don’t like what Intrade has to say today, though you once liked what it had to say, and yesterday you called it DATA.
Thanks for bumping this thread.
Fred Takes Lead on InTrade!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts
Most certainly a lie. It was only misinformation yesterday, but once you were corrected it and ignored the ccrrection, it became a knowing misrepresentation...i.e., a lie.
***Not a lie. There you go again.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
I’m happy to flag your lies. See you tomorrow.
Yep. The FDT camp was smart to bring up immigration and amnesty, esp. after what we saw in the last Dem debate. Its masterful and I only wish he had done it sooner.
Nothing requires me to limit my flagging of your lies to your little Efficacy thread. You’re lying. It’s not a percentage, it’s a future price.
Thanks for bumping the thread. Sorry you don’t like what Intrade has to say in terms of the data it points out to folks about your candidate.
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. That’s your lie.
It’s not a percentage, it’s a future price.
***Asked and answered on that other thread.
For the benefit of lurkers
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html#tellmewhatthepricesmean
Tell me what the prices mean
Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring. Let’s go back to our George Bush example, on December 1, 2003 the George Bush re-election contract was trading at 63, meaning, traders gave him a 63% chance of being re-elected.
If you thought President Bush will be re-elected you would expect that price to go up - towards 100. In that case, if you bought one contract at 63 and Mr. Bush did get re-elected you would make the difference between your purchase price - 63 - and the closing price - 100 - or 37 points. How much profit would that be? Click here.
It’s important to realize that you don’t have to hold your contracts until the result of the event is decided - you can get out of your position at any time until the event is over. So if you change your mind about the outcome you can come back to the exchange, enter an order and close out your position, whether it’s for a profit or loss depends on you.
top of the page
Who determines the prices?
You do - along with thousands of traders around the world. Just like the price of Microsoft stock is determined by the buying & selling activities of thousands of traders in the financial markets, the price of our contracts are determined by traders, like you, who are confident enough to back up their opinion by risking real money.
top of the page
This is the first time I’ve felt hopeful about our political process in fifty years. Maybe it really can work the way it’s supposed to, if we can keep these short-sighted ideologues from hogging the road and holding up traffic.
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.
Ron f**king Paul rates better?
Puuuulllleeeze.
That’s not aimed at you, rather the morons on intrade.
Intrade says what it says. People can see for themselves.
My conclusion from Intrade is that Fred is tanking. That’s a conclusion drawn from the evidence, not necessarily a lie because I’m not lying when I say I concluded it.
Thanks for the bump.
Asked & answered.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.