It’s not a percentage, it’s a future price.
***Asked and answered on that other thread.
For the benefit of lurkers
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html#tellmewhatthepricesmean
Tell me what the prices mean
Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring. Let’s go back to our George Bush example, on December 1, 2003 the George Bush re-election contract was trading at 63, meaning, traders gave him a 63% chance of being re-elected.
If you thought President Bush will be re-elected you would expect that price to go up - towards 100. In that case, if you bought one contract at 63 and Mr. Bush did get re-elected you would make the difference between your purchase price - 63 - and the closing price - 100 - or 37 points. How much profit would that be? Click here.
It’s important to realize that you don’t have to hold your contracts until the result of the event is decided - you can get out of your position at any time until the event is over. So if you change your mind about the outcome you can come back to the exchange, enter an order and close out your position, whether it’s for a profit or loss depends on you.
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Who determines the prices?
You do - along with thousands of traders around the world. Just like the price of Microsoft stock is determined by the buying & selling activities of thousands of traders in the financial markets, the price of our contracts are determined by traders, like you, who are confident enough to back up their opinion by risking real money.
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“you can think of the price as the percentage.”
It’s a price, not a percentage.
I’m not bound to expose your lies on your little ‘efficacy thread.’ I’m going to point them out where you put them.
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.