Rudy in Trouble Without Iowa Win (Morris: Mitt to win primaries, but can't win general election?)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 11/14/07 | Dick Morris

[teddyballgame]

Even as he continues to hold a convincing lead in the national race, Rudy Giuliani may be riding for a big fall in Iowa and the other early state primaries. Mitt Romney, despite his anemic national showing, could sweep Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan, a trifecta that could give him such momentum as to sweep him to the nomination.

The numbers are scary for Giuliani (and since Mitt doesn't have a prayer in hell of beating Hillary in a general election, scary for us all). While he holds a lead in the national polls (Giuliani 30, Thompson 17, McCain 15, Romney 12, Huckabee 9 -- all data is from the average of the past five polls posted on www.realclearpolitics.com), he is trailing badly in all the early states.

In Iowa, the first caucus, it's Romney 29, Huckabee 15, Giuliani 13, Thompson 12, McCain 8. And New Hampshire isn't much better. There it's Romney also in the lead with 32 percent, Rudy a distant second at 21 percent, McCain at 16 percent, Huckabee at 7 percent and Thompson at 5 percent. And Michigan, which might be just a few days after New Hampshire, shows Romney also in the lead at 25 percent with Rudy at 20 percent.

[Amanda75]

You are wrong, his politics fit the place where he is running, I do not like him and do not believe he has anymore beliefs than the Clintons do, and I would not vote for him.

[MplsSteve]

Given NH’s contrarian primary voting, you’re right.

But hasn’t Romney spent a lot of time and money trying to sew up NH to prevent exactly that from happening?

[NeoCaveman]

Romney actually got the nomination he would be hard to beat in Michigan and would put Massachussetts in play.

He'd put Michigan and New Hampshire in play but not Massachsetts it is too liberal. He might put the pacific northwest in play as well as the upper midwest as he's not southern...

[teddyballgame]

Expect another close election whoever gets the nomination. Once again it will come down to a few purple states: FL, NH, OH, MI, NM, MO, NV. Most of the coasts are solid blue: CA, WA, NY, MA, etc. and the South and fly over country are solid red: TX, NE, OK, MT, ID, etc.

[NeoCaveman]

In all these internals from all the early states I see the same thing. Mitt does better with women than men. This is unheard of in modern political history for a Republican.

Looks and money go a long way apparently.

[teddyballgame]

“The toe-sucker wants Hillary to win to keep him employed as the ‘All things Hillary’ expert.”

I think Morris is more of a Rudy cheerleader. I believe he doesn’t like Hillary and fears her presidency. That being said - he would stand to benefit.

[NeoCaveman]

OR that there is no clear winner and we have a brokered convention.

I think that is likely. Unless someone runs the table of early states and only Romney is in the posisition to do that.

But what do I know, I expect Ron Paul to get atleast 10% in New Hamphire....

[Iwo Jima]

Are you from the South? Are you Baptist? I am.

They won't vote for Hilllary. They just won't vote. Not all but enough to make a difference.

Last month Frank Luntz did one of his on air focus groups in Virginia. He was shocked at how many people openly admitted having concerns about Romney's Mormon religion. If he had not been so shocked, he would have gotten more honest answers -- "not going to vote for him" as opposed to being "concerned."

If people in Virginia would say what they said on national TV, much worse is being said and thought in the Deep South about Romney. And MUCH worse WILL be said once the MSM and Hillary make sure that everyone knows whats Mormons believe, a subject about which many in the South are largely ignorant but will reject once they know.

[Williams]

My vote is for Fred Thompson. But first off, Duncan Hunter isn't going to beat Hilary. Fred has a lot of strong qualities but sad to say, many voters will diss him as they dissed Dole, based on age. Not fair, just reality. And Fred hasn't even zoomed to a lead among conservatives in the republican primaries.

Sadly, I think you may also be right about Romney. Although his religion has zip to do with a presidency, there are plenty on here who won't vote for him because he's not a "real Christian". I personally find Romney a bit wimpy.

But all this Rino stuff about Romney is overdone. He was governor of ultra left Massachussetts. Reality is that required some liberal positions. Best example I can think of is G H W Bush switching from pro choice to pro life.

[Iwo Jima]

See my post #48.

[padre35]

Don’t leave MN out of that list of states in play.

[Lakeshark]

I guess we'll see.

We'll just have to disagree for now.

I'm generally a Thompson supporter, btw.......just don't yet have confidence ih his ability to inspire a win.

[gjones77]

Honestly, I’m voting for Mitt in the primaries because Fred hasn’t shown me anything outside of being a little lazy and not willing to put in the effort.

But no matter who wins the primaries, I’ll vote Republican in the election whether I really love the candidate or not because not voting for him would be as bad as voting or Clinton.

So all of the holier than thou posters who refuse to vote for a candidate in the general election because it goes against their “principles” are essentially for for the democrat.

I hold those people in same regard that I hold those that voted to let Germany do as it wishes in WWII

I hope your principles keep you warm when when your taxes sky rocket and the economy tanks, I hope your principles make you feel secure when the Supreme Court gets stacked with left leaning judges who take away your right to own a guy, because you’re basically giving the liberals just what they want.

And before some one gives me their sanctimonious speech about how your God will judge you based on your principles, because you’d be right, he’d judge you based on the fact you let your principles allow people to come to power who would let islam run rampant over our society and I’m sure he’ll appreciate the fact you stood by your principles when these people were tearing his churches down and you did nothing to stop it.

[xzins]

The numbers are scary for Giuliani (and since Mitt doesn't have a prayer in hell of beating Hillary in a general election, scary for us all).

Mitt can win all of the first 5 or 6 states. It's worse for Giuliani than Morris lets on.

Also, I disagree with the above. I don't think Giuliani can win nationally. He is the candidate that Hillary needs run against. Rudy is so dirty that it makes even Hillary look ok in comparison.

And we haven't even mentioned that social conservatives simply won't support him.

Mitt, on the other hand, has had some recent "conversions" to the right views, so he's rightfully suspect with many conservatives. It's hard to say if conservatives would take a chance on him or not.

If Thompson is to catch Romney, he's got to do it in the next 2 or 3 weeks. If Hunter is to get into the upper tier, then he needs a miracle in the next 2 weeks. (And I'm serious...but, I do believe in miracles. :>)

[lgwdnbdgr]

Dick Morris says so, therefore the opposite must be true: Romney is the only Republican who beat Hillary, but Giuliani will win the nomination.

Here’s a question: If Dick Morris predicts that Bob Shrum will work for a winning campaign, what will happen?

[pallis]

Morris’s crystal ball is seriously cracked and difficult to view. We are only two years into this agonizingly long primary, and we still can’t see a clear winner. One thing is for certain, the lead horses on the Republican side look a lot better than the nag on the Democrat side, and when it comes time to line the winners up in the starting gates, people are going to notice the difference. The nation is split politically, but the left needs to stop running oafs, one after the other, if they hope to regain the White House. Algork, ...how bad can it get? If we had run anyone with a little charisma and speaking skills we would have wiped the floor with gore, and the same goes for Kerry. Imagine what a dynamic candidate would have done to him. But now the Demwits have decided to run their filly, or is it a cow in disguise? Does Morris really believe a well-groomed, steed like Romney can’t beat Hillary. He’ll do it in a trot. Go Fred!

[Rodm]

And I see Condi is running for president just like dickie bird said would happen. LOL. Mitt will eat Hillary lunch in any debate. Hillary going to crash and burn.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

Because Romney is Hillary.

[Dr. Sivana]

Given NH’s contrarian primary voting, you’re right.

But hasn’t Romney spent a lot of time and money trying to sew up NH to prevent exactly that from happening?

Yes. And so did Malcolm "Steve" Forbes and Bob Dole (who certainly did not like being embarrassed by PAT BUCHANAN in NH).

This year is different, because it is the first truly open Republican race in that there is neither a sitting prez/vp on the ticket, nor will the opponents be running one. In years where an incumbent is the presumptive opponent, top talent decides not to get involved. Clinton saw Bush the Elder's weakness, other, more likely candidates did not, so they did not even get in the race.

[bilhosty]

i didn’t think Romney could beat Hillary, but now that Dick Morris says so maybe there is hope (after all he is always wrong). Still he does not seem to be catching on with the general public. Even after he spends money on advertisements and runs well with the GOP He still does not do good in general election match ups in those states. He should be strong I don’t understand it.