Posted on 11/13/2007 11:13:48 AM PST by pissant
The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).
When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.
No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.
The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.
Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
Fred: “I strongly support the Second Amendment of the Constitution, which protects an individual’s right to keep and bear arms...”
Huck: “The Red-Coats are comming!”
I was thinking along the lines of “blather, incense, repeat...”
Would you like to be my writer? (Note: this is NOT a union shop; we pass the savings on to YOU!)
Futures markets are trailing indicators, and thin markets like these are especially prone to manipulation.
***Then go ahead and manipulate it. It’s been tried, by someone who was pushing down GWB’s contracts at SportsTrade. It failed.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
nah...
But you can borrow at will...
kevkrom wrote: “The Romney supporters have been particularly vicious, and from early on, as their only hope is for Romney to be considered “conservative” compared to Giuliani and McCain.”
There’s nothing the slightest bit conservative about Rudy McRombee so long as you ignore their recent conversions (which happened about the same time as their presidential aspirations). That some conservatives, who generally tend to be critical thinkers, believe they are going to get smaller government and/or fiscal conservatism (the two go hand in hand) from Rudy McRombee is amazing.
“Fred is the one they fear.”
You FredHeads need to face reality. Nobody fears Fred. The guy’s campaign is imploding and he’s dropping in the polls like a stone. He trails Ron Paul in some polls for goodness sake. Time to get onboard with a winner.
That manipulation was attempted after the conventions and the Labor Day start of the final campaign, when there were two contracts.
Just because I have no desire to manipulate the markets is not proof that it cannot be done. Big fallacy there. Huge.
Nice -- rant...and, truly, I agree with you...at least for me, personally.
I am not someone who is capable of making a commitment -- any kind -- and then distorting all new incoming data to justify that decision. But then, I am not the guy you want to have with you in a political dogfight.
I think victory depends, at some point, on adopting a purely combative, us against them, sort of attitude. It is just not something that I, personally, can do...or care to do.
It does not mean that, and what you've been saying is wrong.
All it means is that the Intrade contract is priced at 6 (which I believe is actually 60 cents).
Man I am glad you are here!
I can’t seem to get anyone on your team to get me an answer on what Mitt said to Jim Bopp about his failure to secure the National Right to life endorsement.
Man, I bet that was one hell of a phone call...
Nope, I just think there's more to dealing with the illegal immigration issue than just building a fence.
ari-freedom wrote: “Now do you see why perhaps Fred needs to do more to compete against huck?”
Yes, I agree he’s not as slick as some of the others, but I admire that. However, I’ll agree it doesn’t necessarily serve him well with other voters.
Fred Thompson, the reluctant candidate. Like a breath of fresh air compared to politics as usual!
I know that. but I don’t think he’s getting support for his spending. people care about the taxes and the IRS and Fred or any of the other candidates don’t have much to say about it and I think they should.
if you really want proof that Huck is a liberal see this
http://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=Issues.View&Issue_id=23
You’d think that the last thing Huck thinks Americans need is more cheap food.
Absolutely. And as soon as we get the fence in place we should look into it.
I hear ya.
So, you think Thompson is both the better man and the better candidate. But you won’t go over to the Fred vs. Hunter thread to show that he’s a better man. And the fact that he’s dropping in the polls and lost 30 points at Intrade isn’t evidence that he is a lackluster candidate. Ok, I get it.
Mind if I repeat that?
Too late. Already did.
“I think victory depends, at some point, on adopting a purely combative, us against them, sort of attitude”
I think you’re right, at least to some degree. What I dislike is the watered down ethics of “Vote For Us We Suck Less”
I turned 18 years old in Sept. 1980. Just in time to vote for Reagan. There just doesn’t seem to be politicians of his caliber...and I don’t mean that ST. RONNIE thing...I mean the optimism, the fortitude. Reagan Impressed even those who disagreed with him.
No. You are the grave digger. You are willing to spend a lot of time and effort trashing a good and viable conservative candidate in order to attempt to prop up another good but nonviable candidate who has has had most of a year to achieve low, single digit numbers. Some of us are actually interested in winning the White House with an acceptable candidate in this unpcoming crucial election year and are not willing to settle for simply making a statement.
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