Posted on 11/13/2007 11:13:48 AM PST by pissant
The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).
When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.
No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.
The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.
Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
Polls are BS right now. Only paranoics and fanatics are worried. Fred is up against the MSM and Bush machine, but I have faith in him. A Thompson/Hunter ticket would be unbeatable. 70% of Americans want the illegal problem fixed. Try messing with that majority!!
Thanks!!
Again, call me when that happens...
If you are still waiting, My summer home is 205-....
I do. I think a lot of people are like me. They looked over the field pre-Thompson and didn't like any of the candidates much. Then the Thompson buzz started and he was kicking MM's ass on YouTube and writing good, sensible stuff at National Review and thumbing his nose at the Enemy Media and moderate R elites and we got excited.
But lately we found out he thinks federalism is a more important policy than protecting the right to life. And he wants to fix Social Security by destroying it. Even his immigration plans aren't really very good because he doesn't get to the heart of the matter.
And so it's natural that's he sliding.
You're comparing apples to oranges. I said Hunter had an overwhelmingly friendly district - one in which it is exceedingly easy for him to win and win and win again in. I said nothing about the partisan breakdown of the district whatsoever. Hunter's seat is safe, and he's never risked it by trying to move higher, until now, since he's going to be retiring anywise, and having his son ride into office off of hisfather's popularity.
“See post #14.”
Ok I read your post 14, but Rasmussen has Fred slipping as well, and while I don’t want to seem contrary, the fact that you say the MSM fears Fred isn’t really a fact. All the recent polling data I’ve seen confirms this downward trend. I’m not saying he’s toast, but neither do I believe that he’s secretly winning and all the data is being manipulated to make it look like he’s not. At this particular moment Fred has slipped to 11% tied with Huckabee who seems to be trending up.
When looked at upside down of course;-)
***Yes, Fred’s progress is amazing at Intrade when you invert it.
Current bid price 6% to drop out, same as current price for winning nomination.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0
Let me guess, in the Hamptons?
It's not a percentage.
By the way, there you go again. He mentioned polls and you counter by posting Intrade.
Intrade does not conduct polls. Those are not polling data.
Probably because federalism is a more sure way to stop abortions than trying to ram through a not-even-possible Constitutional amendment. If your complaint about FDT is that he isn't a pie-in-the-sky idiot, well, so be it.
And he wants to fix Social Security by destroying it.
Good on him. I want to do the same. I'd even be more "radical" than FDT on the issue. Pay out to the people what they've paid in, and then shut it down for good.
Even his immigration plans aren't really very good because he doesn't get to the heart of the matter.
How so? Because he didn't stand up and screech "Build a fence and keep them dirty Mescans out!"?
It’s not a link of voter preferences.
Intrade is a futures market. That’s what the guys who put their money down think of Fred’s chances.
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Kevmo wrote: “Most in the room (at the Family Research Council) supported Mike Huckabee. A few important figures supported Duncan Hunter.”
This is exactly what I find so distasteful, that some (many?) evangelicals support Huckabee over Thompson. Huckabee may very well be a decent Christian, but he’s definitely NOT conservative.
I argued here many times that most Christians oppose big government. I’m starting to believe I was mistaken, because some apparently prefer to use the power of the federal government to force their own agenda on America.
Fred Thompson believes in federalism. That means limited government and individual liberty, and those are key conservative concepts worth supporting.
What kind of country will we ultimately have if it comes down to which side can best use the power of the federal government to squash its opposition? That way leads to tyranny!
Here’s the one I have at 4% for Hunter. It does not appear to be CNN.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
It’s not a poll. The data are not interchangeable with polling data. The numbers reported are not percentages.
What you are doing is misleading.
Funny, I just looked at your thread from there and looks like the talk is of an up trend...
Now I really don’t care, because I am not a gambler and really am not fond of such, but you give it great credence, so...
“This is exactly what I find so distasteful, that some (many?) evangelicals support Huckabee over Thompson. Huckabee may very well be a decent Christian, but he’s definitely NOT conservative.”
Huckabee is a quintessential whore and liar, hiding under the guise of Boy Scout conservatism.
Here’s a link to a poll.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
The MSM used to fear Fred. I think they’re past him now, cuz he hasn’t gained any traction.
They MSM thought Thompson would be the greatest threat to Hillary; worst case for them, Rudy wins and we have a liberal Republican president.
South East Alabama...
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