According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering

Wash Post ^ | 11/13/07 | Chris Cillizza

[pissant]

The American electorate is a fickle mistress. Just ask former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.).

When Thompson announced his candidacy for president just after Labor Day most national polls showed him running a close second behind former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the majority of state polls had him in the top three.

No longer. Thompson's campaign has yet to take off as expected and voters -- especially in crucial early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida.

The most recent data comes from New Hampshire where two surveys were released over the weekend. The first, conducted by theUniversity of New Hampshire for the Boston Globe, put Thompson in sixth (yes, SIXTH) place with just three percent of the vote. (Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led the way with 32 percent.) In a Marist University poll Thompson again took sixth place with just five percent support. To be clear, Thompson was never a frontrunner in New Hampshire but polls conducted in the run-up to his announcement and just after he formally entered the race show him regularly polling in double digits.

Thompson's shrinking support is apparent in other early states as well. The last three polls taken in Iowa put Thompson in fourth, fifth and fourth place, respectively, and his high water mark in any of those surveys is 11 percent. In Florida, too, Thompson appears to be fading. A new poll conducted for the Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times showed Thompson in fifth place (eight percent) behind Giuliani (36 percent), Romney (19 percent), Arizona Sen. John McCain (12 percent) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (nine percent).

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

The folks that ‘drafted’ him should have put their efforts into supporting Hunter and avoided this embarrassment. But there is still time.

Repent infidels, and join the DH campaign!

There is no god but DH, and pissant is his prophet!

[pissant]

Nuttin’ godly. Just Conservative. A welcome change.

http://duncanhunter2008.us/Hunter-Thompson%20flyer.pdf

[ejonesie22]

Yes, jump out of the truck that is regaining traction and hop into the mud hole to be stuck for good...

[pissant]

Not for long. But you are free to try and dissuade...

[Kevmo]

What earthly reason do you possibly have to think that Hunter is suddenly going to come flying out the gates and win it all?
***First, Hunter has more character. If Clinton taught us anything, it is that character is becoming more important than less important — certainly more important than name recognition. Second, you are not necessarily allowed to discuss all the reasons here on FR.

http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

[Preachin']

“Time to ditch Fred and join the Hunter Campaign folks.”

Yeah. Just ask President Dean.

[ejonesie22]

Call me when Hunter passes him. You may want to try my summer home if you are still waiting by then...

[deport]

Polls are what they are, a snapshot in time. Some get in and rise/fall. Others get in and pretty much stay stagnant. Here's a few polls over the past couple of weeks.

There are 50 days until the caucuses in Iowa begin. The straglers aren't going to rise to the top in that short period of time no matter how much anyone hopes for that to happen. The Republican primary voters aren't given to large swings such as you'll see quoted about Kerry, Clinton, Carter, etc .

The most consistent thing about these polls is that Giuliani is holding the top spot and not faultering..... You'd think it was Thompson based upon all the wailing and knashing of teeth portrayed on this forum by some.

---

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs. Nov. 5-7, 2007. N=361 Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.2.

					.
"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"
					.
		11/5-7/07	10/1-3/07
		%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	29	25
	Fred Thompson	19	22
	John McCain	13	12
	Mitt Romney	12	9
	Mike Huckabee	10	7
	Other (vol.)	2	-
	None (vol.)	7	9
	Unsure	8	8
	Newt Gingrich	n/a	7
	Sam Brownback	n/a	1
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Nov. 1-5, 2007. Asked of Republicans, and non-Republicans who said they would vote in a Republican presidential primary (from a total sample of 1,509 adults nationwide). MoE ± 4.2.
					.
"Let me mention some people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008. If the next Republican primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote . . . ?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"
					.
		11/1-5/07	9/28-30/07	9/7-10/07
		%	%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	33	30	32
	John McCain	16	15	14
	Fred Thompson	15	23	26
	Mitt Romney	11	10	11
	Mike Huckabee	8	4	4
	Ron Paul	4	2	2
	Duncan Hunter	2	1	1
	Tom Tancredo	2	1	1
	Other (vol.)	1	1	n/a
	None (vol.)	1	2	2
	Unsure	7	10	6
	Sam Brownback	n/a	1	1
					.
USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 2-4, 2007. N=430 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.
					.
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. . . ." Names rotated. Results from 9/07 & earlier calculated using second choice of Gingrich supporters.
		11/2-4/07	10/12-14/07	10/4-7/07
		%	%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	34	32	32
	John McCain	18	14	16
	Fred Thompson	17	18	20
	Mitt Romney	14	10	9
	Mike Huckabee	6	6	7
	Ron Paul	1	5	2
	Duncan Hunter	1	1	1
	Tom Tancredo	-	2	1
	Someone else	1	2	1
	None (vol.)/Unsure	9	9	11
	Sam Brownback	n/a	2	1
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Nov. 2-4, 2007. N=397 registered voters nationwide who are Republicans or lean Republican. MoE ± 5.
					.
"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in the year 2008. . . ." Names rotated. Results from 9/07 & earlier calculated using second choice of Gingrich supporters.
					.
		11/2-4/07	10/12-14/07	9/7-9/07	8/6-8/07
		%	%	%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	28	27	28	29
	Fred Thompson	19	19	27	22
	John McCain	16	17	15	16
	Mitt Romney	11	13	11	12
	Mike Huckabee	10	5	5	3
	Ron Paul	5	2	1	2
	Duncan Hunter	4	3	1	-
	Tom Tancredo	3	1	2	2
	Unsure	5	11	8	10
	Sam Brownback	n/a	1	2	3
	Tommy Thompson	n/a	n/a	n/a	1
Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2007. N=430 registered Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE ± 6.
					.
"Now I’m going to name eight Republican presidential candidates. After I read all the names, tell me which ONE you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate in 2008. The choices are [see below]?" Names rotated
					.
		10/31 - 11/1/07	8/1-2/07	6/20-21/07
		%	%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	30	30	27
	Fred Thompson	15	22	19
	John McCain	14	13	15
	Mitt Romney	12	10	12
	Mike Huckabee	7	2	4
	Ron Paul	3	2	2
	Duncan Hunter	2	1	-
	Tom Tancredo	-	1	1
	Other	-	2	1
	None/No preference	6	5	5
	Unsure	11	10	8
	Sam Brownback	n/a	1	2
	Tommy Thompson	n/a	1	2
	Michael Bloomberg	n/a	n/a	2
	Jim Gilmore	n/a	n/a	-
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2007. N=436 Republicans and leaners nationwide. MoE ± 4.5. Fieldwork by TNS.
					.
"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?" Names rotated. Includes leaners. For 9/07 and earlier, includes second choices of Gingrich supporters.
					.
		10/29 - 11/1/07	9/27-30/07
		%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	33	34
	John McCain	19	12
	Fred Thompson	16	17
	Mitt Romney	11	11
	Mike Huckabee	9	8
	Ron Paul	3	3
	Duncan Hunter	2	2
	Tom Tancredo	1	1
	None of these (vol.)	4	4
	Wouldn't vote (vol.)	-	1
	Unsure	3	8
	Sam Brownback	n/a	1
WNBC/Marist Poll. Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2007. N=306 Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.5..
					.
"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are [see below]?"
					.
		10/29 - 11/1/07
		%
	Rudy Giuliani	30
	John McCain	17
	Mitt Romney	13
	Fred Thompson	12
	Mike Huckabee	5
	Ron Paul	2
	Duncan Hunter	1
	Tom Tancredo	-
	Unsure	20
Quinnipiac University Poll. Oct. 23-29, 2007. N=678 registered Republicans nationwide. MoE ± 3.8.
					.
"If the 2008 Republican primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would you vote?"
					.
		10/23-29/07	8/7-13/07	6/5-11/07	4/25 - 5/1/07	2/13-19/07
		%	%	%	%	%
	Rudy Giuliani	27	28	27	27	40
	Fred Thompson	17	12	15	14	n/a
	Mitt Romney	14	15	10	8	7
	John McCain	13	11	15	19	18
	Mike Huckabee	6	2	2	2	2
	Ron Paul	2	2	1	-	1
	Duncan Hunter	1	1	1	1	2
	Tom Tancredo	1	1	1	-	1
	Other (vol.)	1	3	2	2	1
	Wouldn't vote (vol.)	1	2	1	1	-
	Unsure	15	16	17	16	15
	Newt Gingrich	n/a	7	5	8	10
	Sam Brownback	n/a	1	1	1	1
	Tommy Thompson	n/a	1	1	1	1
	Jim Gilmore	n/a	-	-	-	-
	George Pataki	n/a	n/a	n/a	1	1
	Chuck Hagel	n/a	n/a	n/a	-	-
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Oct. 23-24, 2007. N=303 Republican voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.
					.
"If the 2008 Republican presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were [see below]?" Names rotated
					.
		10/23-24/07
		%
	Rudy Giuliani	31
	Fred Thompson	17
	John McCain	12
	Mitt Romney	7
	Mike Huckabee	5
	Duncan Hunter	3
	Tom Tancredo	2
	Ron Paul	1
	Other (vol.)	2
	Unsure	16
	Wouldn't vote (vol.)	4

---

And More: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08rep.htm

[stephenjohnbanker]

“They used to be afraid of FDT. Not anymore. The “lazy” label has stuck”

Who pinned it on him?

[Petronski]

That link does not show Fred being at 6%. It discusses an Intrade market where Fred’s contract trades at 6.

NOT the same thing.

[snarkybob]

Wow You’re taking a lot of heat about being a Hunter Supporter, and all just for posting a poll that shows
Thompson fading. Good luck. I think someone posted that Hunter wasn’t moving in the polls. Well Thompson is moving....unfortunately he’s moving down.

[pissant]

Actually, Hunter is now at 4% in two national polls, so they are moving in opposite directions. I don’t worry about the heat. FreeRepublic will have the biggest, happiest inauguration party EVER if Hunter pulls this out.

[ejonesie22]

There is a little more to it than him simply being a Hunter supporter...

[Kevmo]

As if Duncan Hunter has the slightest chance of winning the nomination?
***Kerry was at ~4% also this time around in 2003, and no one had heard of Jimmah Carter at this point in time before his race. Voters are just now starting to pay attention.

Personally, I’m ashamed of some of my fellow Christians who are favoring Huckabee, aka Bush III.
***The support for Huckabee is coming from the evangelicals. Dobson recently came out ‘vigorously’ denying that he endorsed Huckabee, and he has been silent on Hunter.

Just think if he endorsed Hunter this week.

Jill Stanek: Behind the scenes at FRC Briefing (Family Research Council)
WorldNetDaily ^ | 10/24/07 | Jill Stanek

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1915901/posts
Posted on 10/24/2007 4:11:29 PM PDT by wagglebee

Generalized outcomes of the meeting:

Most in the room supported Mike Huckabee. A few important figures supported Duncan Hunter.

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

Nuttin’ godly. Just Conservative. A welcome change.

DH Akbar?

[pissant]

http://duncanhunter2008.us/Hunter-Thompson%20flyer.pdf

[LibLieSlayer]

Ain’t it the truth!

LLS

[penowa]

"...we may be heading towards a three or four way brokered convention."

I doubt it. As long as the conservative vote remains split 4 or more ways, it will allow Rudy to squeak by with the help of the liberal Republicans just as long as they actually show up to vote for their guy.

[SergeiRachmaninov]

They’re afraid of Thompson...

Yes, ~everyone~ who doesn't drink the Fred koolaid is afraid...very afraid.

BTW, what color is the sky in the Fredhead world?

[dschapin]

Oh please, you accused Spiff of lying earlier but your statement is even more blatant. Fred and Huckabee are tied for fourth place at 11%. You can talk about the margin of error but that doesn’t change the fact that the poll shows Fred tied with Huckabee for 4th Place - basically he is free falling and is about to drop out of the top tier.