Posted on 11/11/2007 4:03:53 AM PST by Josh Painter
This winters Republican primaries will be a contest between the moderate to left leaning wing of the Republican Party and the conservative base. As it stands now the moderates are winning. The conservatives have more votes but they are split between at least four candidates, while Rudy can wrap up all the moderate votes. If he wins the nomination, the conservative movement moves back a few years. Abortion and gay rights immediately come off the table. Immigration, health care, and global warming move into the iffy column...
His political background is spotty at best. Mayor of New York is the only elected office he has ever held. His credentials as a Republican are not too solid either.
Rudy began his political career as a Democrat, volunteering as a campaign worker in John F. Kennedys run for President. In 1972, he supported George McGovern. He changed his party affiliation from Democrat to Independent in 1975. When Ronald Reagan won the 1980 election, Rudy immediately switched from Independent to Republican. Many believed he did so in order to gain appointment to the Reagan Justice Department...
While Rudy may very well win the Republican nomination, he still has to win the general election. As soon as the primaries are over, the Democrats will stop running against Bush and begin running against the Republican nominee. With Rudys background, it is far from certain how he would fare against the Clinton War Room.
Many conservatives and Republicans have bought into the idea that to win a national election you have to move to the center. This is probably the number one consideration among many supporters of Giuliani. They believe he is the most electable candidate. Reagan and Gingrich both proved that when conservative principles are clearly articulated by a strong candidate they win elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at illinoisconservative.com ...
Let's start with ousting Durbin, squashing Barry Obama, and get some serious candidates for Senator.
And how about our fine Governor Blow-Dry-a-Vich? Lyin' Ryan is in jail - get over it. Let's rebuild folks!
BTW, I don't think Rudy will win the Illinois primary.
The GOP`s conservative voter base remains seriously split, enabling Rooty to pick off enough support to keep him the front runner. If enough conservatives don’t wake up, Rudy will win the nomination.
Democrat and Republican politicians have different objectives. The Democrats stand to benefit from big government whether they're in leadership positions or not--if government gets big enough they'll be plenty of pork to go around. Further, big government will help keep any would-be competitors "in their place". Republican politicians, by contrast, can only benefit if they get leadership positions. If government shrinks (as they're supposed to make happen) there won't be any pork for non-leaders.
Unfortunately, it's in both parties' interest to have the country led by RINOs who take positions far to the left of those Democrats would be able to take against more conservative Republicans. That way Democrats get the big government tyranny they want, while Republicans get the leadership positions they want.
I would consider Mitt Romney as the only "risky" candidate from among that tier. Rudy is simply poison, and McCain would simply be crazy.
If Fred Thompson were not in the race, I would consider Mitt Romney as the least odious of the candidates who seemed to have a shot of winning, though I am deeply concerned about what positions he would push should he win the presidency, especially in a second term.
It may well be that Romney's just as bad as Rudy, but simply hides it better. But if I have to support someone I'd rather it be someone who either at least claims to support my position. If that's not possible, I'd rather have someone who openly claims to be my enemy than someone who claims to be my friend but openly supports (supposedly on my behalf) positions to which I am opposed. Note that I'd be unlikely to actively support either of the latter two types of candidate.
As I see it, the primary front-runners are Giuliani and Romney. Of those two, I would consider Romney preferable. He has some points in his favor, though it's hard to tell how many; Giuliani has zero points in his favor to balance.
Of the next tier candidates, I would consider Fred Thompson to be likely the best. Duncan Hunter sounds like a good candidate, but I can't imagine any way for him to break through. Fred Thompson hasn't been doing well, but I don't see the systemic negatives for him that I do with the other candidates. The futures markets are down on Fred hard, but their predictive abilities at this stage in the game are dubious at best anyway.
At this point, I'm short on McCain and Giuliani, long on Thompson, slightly long on Rest-of-Field (Huckabee?), and neutral on Romney. That mirrors my desires, somewhat, but it also relates to how I see the systemic negatives. There are a lot of people whom I can't imagine voting for Giuliani in the primary under any plausible circumstance; he may well get a plurality of delegates, but I don't think that would get him the win.
Our rino candidates are polling 58% of the vote last time I looked. 58% of gop voters want a liberal as our nominee. How sad.
Has anyone heard as to whether or not the NRA will be endorsing a candidate prior to the Primary’s, and is there any scuttlebutt as to who they will back?
Good analysis, thanks.
Risky? Disastrous is more like it.
Add in “Insane” John McCain for the trifecta.
I’m not sure why you threw this quote at me, but I can assure you I have no desire to see the GOP move to the center. In fact, I am one of the people who wonders if it is time for the emergence of a truly Conservative Party. I would love to see a Christian based, common sense, conservative party in America’s future.
Bullsh*t. We need someone that can ensure the base shows up to vote. The GOP seats another "Brady Bill" Bob Dole and it'll be a landslide for Hillary.
Stop asking us to hold our noses to vote for yet another lame ass RINO.
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William J. Bratton, former NYC police commissioner under Mayor Giuliani endorsed Gov Spitzer's plan to license illegals.
EXCERPT LA Police Chief Bratton was NYC police commissioner from 1994-96, during the first term of Mayor Giuliani, but the two men famously feuded, with Giuliani resentful that Mr. Bratton a pioneer of the citys Compstat program was getting credit for the citys reduction in crime.
In March 2007, Giuliani began trying to mend fences with Bratton and met privately; afterward, Mr. Bratton said he enjoyed the tête-à-tête. In May 2007, the two men met in Los Angeles.
In a statement released October 2007 by Gov Spitzers office, Chief Bratton said: As former Commissioner of the New York City Police Department and now Chief of the Los Angeles Police Department (since 2002), I support efforts that have the potential to solve crimes and improve traffic safety. Thats why I backed legislation in California that would give undocumented immigrants the ability to get a drivers license once they have provided proof of their identification. It is my belief that by doing that you would reduce the number of hit and runs and increase the number of insured motorists on the road. We would also now have undocumented immigrants identifying information on record such as photographs and addresses which could prove helpful in the fight against crime and terrorism.
QUOTE SOURCE http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/22/bratton-endorses-spitzer-drivers-license-plan/
(Licensing illegals hit a roadblock when it was determined some 80% of Americans oppose the plan. Spitzer was forced to backoff when the plan contributed to a debate fumble by Hillary Clinton followed by dismal approval ratings).
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RUDY: I'D TAP MY OLD FOE BRATTON
By DAVID K. LI, NY POST
August 13, 2007
EXCERPT GOP presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani floated an extraordinary olive branch to bitter rival William Bratton, hinting he'd consider his estranged former top cop for a high federal post.
In an interview in this week's New Yorker magazine, Giuliani was asked whom he'd tap for Homeland Security secretary if elected to the White House. He laughed and told the magazine whom he wouldn't tap. ".....you need a Bernie Kerik without the background problems that Bernie Kerik had," Giuliani said of his ethics-challenged former police commissioner and close friend.
The former mayor lavished praise on his first police commissioner, Bratton, the city's top cop from 1994-96..... Giuliani is largely blamed for forcing Bratton, now LA police chief, out of office in an ugly battle of egos. "But you sort of look back on some of the things and say that was an extraordinarily productive relationship," Giuliani told the magazine. Now that I look back on it, I really appreciate the (Bratton) relationship."
It's certain that Giuliani won't be tapping Kerik for any job in his potential Cabinet. Kerik, NY's top cop from 2000 to 2001 and a close friend of Giuliani's, was briefly nominated for Homeland Security's top post by President Bush. Kerik withdrew, claiming his employment of an illegal nanny would make his confirmation too difficult. It soon emerged that Kerik had a flood of ethics allegations that were much more serious.
BEST OF ENEMIES Giuliani and William Bratton at a press conference in 1996 announcing Bratton's resignation as police commissioner.
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