Bookies: Thompson Out, Rudy and Mitt Tops

The Street.com ^ | November 9, 2007 | Brett Arends

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Fred Thompson's campaign for president has collapsed.

Well, at least, among the bookies.

I've been giving readers regular updates on the betting in the presidential election, but absolutely nothing has been more dramatic this fall than Thompson's market meltdown. According to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets, the TV actor's chances of winning the GOP nomination have slumped in just six weeks from nearly 30% to less than 10%.

As recently as June, just after the former Senator announced he was running, he was the favorite in the betting, at nearly 40%.

The numbers are similar over at Dublin-based betting exchange InTrade. Thompson was at 35% in July. Today? 6%.

Credit the old Wall Street saw: Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news.

Before Thompson jumped into the race, conservative columnist George Will compared the anticipation to "Tulipmania." He questioned whether the Law & Order star really offered either the charisma, or the Mr. Conservative credentials, that his boosters claimed.

Maybe Thompson could never have matched the elevated expectations that greeted him. But his lackluster campaign and weak debate performances have brought him down to earth with a thump.

The betting now puts the Republican race between two people. The markets give Rudy Giuliani a 40% chance of winning the nomination, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney a 30% chance.

[Kevmo]

Current odds at Intrade
https://www.intrade.com/

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
currently selling at 42

2008.PRES.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to win 2008 US Presidential Election
Currently selling at 17

That’s where you would make the most money if you were right.

[Kevmo]

And Hunter is a dream candidate who can’t get any traction.
***Here’s a very recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

[tsowellfan]

I hope you’re right. This nation really needs a conservative leader. Fred’s got a lot of catching up to do. He really should be beyond the worries of winning the GOP primary and now getting himself known by the non-republicans and reagan democrats.

[Plutarch]

OK, that sounds very clever, but I can’t find the original it’s based upon.

Measure for Measure Act 2, Scene 2

ISABELLA

Could great men thunder
As Jove himself does, Jove would ne'er be quiet,
For every pelting, petty officer
Would use his heaven for thunder;
Nothing but thunder! Merciful Heaven,
Thou rather with thy sharp and sulphurous bolt
Split'st the unwedgeable and gnarled oak
Than the soft myrtle: but man, proud man,
Drest in a little brief authority,
Most ignorant of what he's most assured,
His glassy essence, like an angry ape,
Plays such fantastic tricks before high heaven
As make the angels weep; who, with our spleens,
Would all themselves laugh mortal.

[Kevmo]

Thanks. It was a bit of a stretch, but I liked it, especially about “As would make Occam weep.”

But Fredheads, proud Fredheads,
Seeing Fred lose a little authority,
Make such multiple explanations before Free Republic,
As would make Occam weep.

but man, proud man,
Drest in a little brief authority,
Most ignorant of what he’s most assured,
His glassy essence, like an angry ape,
Plays such fantastic tricks before high heaven
As make the angels weep;

[ilja]

There’s one thing too many people keep forgetting. This is the first Republican Presidential primary race in ages where there wasn’t already an heir apparent. Our nominee might not even be determined until the actual GOP Convention.

I believe people keep looking at this as if the candidate with the most votes takes all. That’s not how it works. It depends on a candidate getting enough delegates to win the actual nomination and even Mr. Front Runner Rudy himself can’t seem to break out of the 30% range.

In other words, even if he does end up with the most delegates by the Convention, unless he has the number required to win, there is still a chance that candidates with a lesser amount of delegates might join together where one of them will drop out and pledge to support the other. In most cases, when this happens the delegates (though not required) will vote for the candidate that their candidate endorsed.

In other words, it’s possible that the candidate with the most delegates won’t be able to garner enough to win the whole kit and kaboodle.

At this point, I believe we need to keep working our tails off for our candidate of choice and pray that the right man for the job ends up winning.

[napscoordinator]

I am voting for Duncan!!! He is 100 percent conservative. Fred might be 90 percent conservative, but Duncan is 100 percent so why not go for the best conservative? It does not make sense not too.

[Congressman Billybob]

It didn't work out for Gene. As you know, he knocked off Lyndon Johnson, but then got blind-sided by Robert Kennedy (who had promised Gene personally that he would not run), and then squeezed out by Hubert Humphrey at the Convention.

My point was that Gene McCarthy, who later was a client of mine and a friend, was an honest man. He did not define his life by whether he became President. or not. THAT attitude is a healthy one for politicians to have -- though danged few of them have it.

John

[Redmen4ever]

thx for the link ...

The betting line for winner in the general election for President is: Dems 60 percent vs Reps 40 percent. Thus, they’re favored, but not prohibitively at this point. We can win this thing, but it’s going to take some doing.

Since Rudy has about a 50-50 chance of getting the nomination, the odds with respect to which party will win the presidential race are consistent with his 1-in-5 odds of personally being elected president.

Hillary is now at 85 percent to win the Democratic nomination. Historically, crossing over the 85 percent line means the event is a certainty. This is why Hillary is now sounding like a flip-flopper. She is no longer concerned with the Democratic base, but with appealling to swing and independent voters in the general election.

On the Republican side, Rudy has not played the game of running to the right during primary season (which, along with his personal life, helps explain why so many Republicans are troubled with him). Romney, we can suppose, should he win the nomination, will rediscover the centrist tendencies that served him well in Massachusetts.

Getting back to the quotations, I think they’re off in the Congressional scores. They give the Republicans a good chance of re-taking the Senate when, personally, I see only one seat that we can pick-up (LA) and about a half dozen seats we can lose (including my own state of VA).

On the other hand, they show the Democrats to be prohibitive favorites to keep the House of Representatives. I think if we keep the White House, we re-take the House. Hence, I think our odds are 2-to-3. I notice that we are doing pretty well in candidate recruitiment for potentially competitive districts; so, I don’t think I’m the only one thinking we can re-take the House.

[Huck]

THAT attitude is a healthy one for politicians to have -- though danged few of them have it.

You seem to be unable to connect the dots on this one.

[Lexi3130]

I work (unpaid) to put who I believe is the best candidate on the ballot. I still stand by what I said - come election day, when there is only ONE choice left, I will vote for the Republican and it may not be my candidate of choice.

PS Wasn’t trying to put a guilt trip on you, I was just stating a fact. My TV is set to implode should MSM appear. Have a great day!

[2ndDivisionVet]

[freekitty]

I know you weren’t trying to intentionally putting a guilt trip on me; but this election is not really about Hillary. Yes she is a sick pile; but she is not the point. The point is do we want to keep the America as we and our forefathers fought for.

If we continue to vote for Rinos as we call them; just because we think they can win; we will be getting no better than Hillary in the WH.

So why take this opportunity to elect a real conservative and send it down the tubes?

[Kevmo]

Note that there is a contract for Ron Paul running on a 3rd party. But there’s no contract for a 3rd party run should Rudy get the nomination, as Dobson has said he would encourage.

Let’s say the Rudy nomination is a given. What would you put the odds of a 3rd party candidacy endorsed by Dobson et al?

[Redmen4ever]

My sense is that Rudy will do what he can and must do to minimize defections by religious right, social conservatives and libertarians, i.e., the various fringes of the Republican coalition; while going after the swing and independent voters we need in order to win.

On the religious right side, this includes - on the abortion issue - committing himself to appoint judicial conservatives, to oppose late-term abortion, and to support parental notification and other reasonable regulations. Rudy cannot and will not pretend that he is pro-life from conception (the way Mitt Romney sort of intimates that he is).

On the marriage issue, Rudy will be for preserving marriage for heterosexual couples, while also being for equal and fair treatment of all Americans. (This is, after all, the Bush position; and, I’d bet this is really Romney’s position as well.)

Rudy will have to honor the religious right in terms of platform time, and I expect Mike Huckabee to be featured prominently at the convention. Governor Huckabee is a powerful spokesman for the pro-life, pro-family and all-round pro-caring and decent values embraced by the religious right.

I don’t think that Rudy will have to name a prominent religious right running mate.

As to whether these will be sufficient for Brother Dobson, I think they will be. I think the challenge on the right, will be from the social conservatives, not the religious right, and will be animated more by Rudy’s embrace of comprehensive immigration reform than by the moral issues.

As for libertarians, I’m not sure how this will play out. Rudy’s strength is national security. The libertarians come across as a bit naive on this issue.

There are times that I worry about the future for our country, with our mounting on- and off-budget obligations, tax burdens that continually creep up, and the growing majority of blood-suckers that live off the tax-payer and who vote in every election. Can we ever get out of the spiral to bankruptcy in which we find ourselves? The Ron Paul Revolution envisions a return to Constitutional government, which is the only real solution to our fiscal problems. But, it’s way short on how we get to that place, in terms of the incremental reforms that will phase-out the welfare state amd develop a constituency for liberty.

It’s the difference between a scientist and an engineer. One works in theories and in a laboratory; and, the other is out there in the real world actually getting things done. Rudy, it seems to me, is a man who gets things done. A man who goes after the mob and who goes after street crime, who tightens welfare eligibility and gets people into jobs, who lowers tax rates and gets the economy into high gear. He’s not an Ivory Tower kind of guy.

Unlike Ronald Reagan, who had visionary leaderhip, Rudy is a hands-on leader who actively works with others to get things done. The quality of visionary leadership enabled Reagan to appeal to all the factions of our party, to all but the most died-in-the-wool Democrat in our country, and to young people all over the entire world.

[penowa]

See my post # 15. I am voting for Hunter even though the candidate will be known by the time I get to vote in the primary.

[Blue Highway]

Maybe Fred should throw away the coffin and get out there and fight. If there is no coffin (as you say there is) there'd be no need for nails.

There is no coffin to throw away. It is a virtual coffin propped up by the leftist-media as they want to end his campaign by proxy through the media. If you can't see this then I can't help you, I'm sorry.

I too would love to see somebody more conservative than Rudy.

You shouldn't have to look too far, as all the bottom tier candidates like Hunter, Huckabee, Tancredo and even Brownback (is he still in the campaign, as I haven't heard his name in months.) are way more conservative than Rudy can pretend to be. Bottom line is Thompson is most electable conservative in the bunch.

[Kevmo]

So, you don’t really have an answer to the question, and instead I find an advertisement to show the positive lights of a gun-grabbing, cross-dressing, open-borders abortionist liberal.

My answer to the question is that it’s about a 30% likelihood that a 3rd party would form. Rudy is looking at about 30-60% of the socon base either actively going against him or sitting this one out. That would put about a 90% likelihood of him losing to Hillary. Not only would he lose against Hillary, but he brings in a 30% risk of ushering in the end of the republican party.

I would like to see such a contract at Intrade so that we can deal with some kind of data rather than pure conjecture.

[Yaelle]

Bull poopies. I just sent Fred some more dough Friday. I don’t think I am alone. He looked great at the last debate. He actually EXPLAINS things, slowly and carefully. I was wishing he was already in the WH because Bush explains nothing and when he tries, it’s worse than when he doesn’t.

[napscoordinator]

That is outstanding! Me too!!!