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Bookies: Thompson Out, Rudy and Mitt Tops
The Street.com ^ | November 9, 2007 | Brett Arends

Posted on 11/10/2007 12:37:49 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah

Fred Thompson's campaign for president has collapsed.

Well, at least, among the bookies.

I've been giving readers regular updates on the betting in the presidential election, but absolutely nothing has been more dramatic this fall than Thompson's market meltdown. According to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets, the TV actor's chances of winning the GOP nomination have slumped in just six weeks from nearly 30% to less than 10%.

As recently as June, just after the former Senator announced he was running, he was the favorite in the betting, at nearly 40%.

The numbers are similar over at Dublin-based betting exchange InTrade. Thompson was at 35% in July. Today? 6%.

Credit the old Wall Street saw: Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news.

Before Thompson jumped into the race, conservative columnist George Will compared the anticipation to "Tulipmania." He questioned whether the Law & Order star really offered either the charisma, or the Mr. Conservative credentials, that his boosters claimed.

Maybe Thompson could never have matched the elevated expectations that greeted him. But his lackluster campaign and weak debate performances have brought him down to earth with a thump.

The betting now puts the Republican race between two people. The markets give Rudy Giuliani a 40% chance of winning the nomination, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney a 30% chance.

(Excerpt) Read more at thestreet.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; axisofdesperation; elections; familyvalues; fred; fredthompson; giuliani; mitt; mittromney; romney; romneysleazemachine; roodywins; stoprudy2008
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To: Congressman Billybob
Frankly, I don't want the White House to go to someone whose every waking moment and calculation for decades has been how to get into that job.

Sadly, everyone appears beguiled by Rudy's fast talking NYC style and Mitt Romney's immaculate suits and well-coiffed pate

To hell with the abundant evidence neither of them are who they are claiming to be today.Here we go again.

61 posted on 11/10/2007 4:21:36 PM PST by skeeter
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To: Huck

One wears a dress. blonde wig, fishnet hose and dances a chorus line. The other, if nothing else, is really good lookin’.

LOL. I am just being mean. Shame on me.


62 posted on 11/10/2007 4:25:02 PM PST by dforest (Duncan Hunter is the best hope we have on both fronts.)
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To: Cacique

Organizations like Human Events ought to get out front for Duncan Hunter, a real conservative!

www.gohunter08.com


63 posted on 11/10/2007 4:25:12 PM PST by fetal heart beats by 21st day (Defending human life is not a federalist issue. It is the business of all of humanity.)
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To: huckfillary

> I guess I’m just plain stupid, but will somebody please explain to me why Fred isn’t trouncing these as***les? <

I think Fred’s a good man, even though he’s not all that conservative.

There are probably multiple reasons for his disappointing performance to date:

1. Maybe he’s lazy.

2. Maybe he lacks “fire in the belly.”

3. Maybe he’s tired and exhausted because his cancer and his age have worn him down.

4. Maybe he’s a poor organizer.

5. Maybe he’s a poor manager.

6. Maybe his wife is running the campaign and isn’t very good at it.

7. Maybe he doesn’t really want the job.


64 posted on 11/10/2007 4:35:01 PM PST by Hawthorn
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To: khnyny

The money almost never lies


65 posted on 11/10/2007 4:37:42 PM PST by italianquaker (Is there anything Ron Paul doesn't blame the USA for?)
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To: Hawthorn
Maybe there are other reasons having nothing to do with those you've listed.

If you're expecting the MSM,let alone the GOP party apparatus, to give any even remotely conservative candidate a fair shake in the primaries (not to mention general election) then you haven't been paying attention.

66 posted on 11/10/2007 4:42:58 PM PST by skeeter
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

I think Mitt has to work harder and harder to get all these early states especially South Carolina. Both Rudy and Fred can afford a loss here and there, but Mitt can’t. We should never underestimate the Fred campaign. Fred may appear weaker, but his following is stronger and more vocal than he is. Because of his Hollywood connections and star power, the MSM will favor Fred.


67 posted on 11/10/2007 4:45:30 PM PST by Romneyfor President2008
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To: italianquaker

Except when it’s wrong. Just like it was with the Dem nominee in 2004.


68 posted on 11/10/2007 4:52:54 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (John Cox 2008: Because Duncan Hunter just isn't obscure enough for me!)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

Because Conservatives are such heavy gamblers?

Let’s think about this for a minute or three, please . . .


69 posted on 11/10/2007 4:53:51 PM PST by FreedomPoster (Guns themselves are fairly robust; their chief enemies are rust and politicians) (NRA)
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To: Romneyfor President2008
We should never underestimate the Fred campaign.

Will wonders never cease? This is the first thing you've ever posted here that I agree with. :)

70 posted on 11/10/2007 4:53:58 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (John Cox 2008: Because Duncan Hunter just isn't obscure enough for me!)
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To: Romneyfor President2008
MSM will favor Fred.

Great. When do they plan to start?

71 posted on 11/10/2007 4:56:14 PM PST by skeeter
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah
Yawn. We'll know on primary day -- each and every one of them.

Until then, I just can't see the point in getting all worked up, threatening to leave the party and yelling at each other. In fact, I can't see the point even after the primaries.

CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG?

72 posted on 11/10/2007 4:57:56 PM PST by BfloGuy (It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we can expect . . .)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah
I’ll bet a large amount of money that Giuliani will be the next POTUS. Note: That does not mean I think he’s the best choice. Never, ever, ever confuse reality with what you wish/hope for. To do so makes you delusional and hense prone to get surprised and also make make choices based on bogus data.
73 posted on 11/10/2007 5:00:54 PM PST by AmericaUnited
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To: perfect_rovian_storm

OK, I still would follow the $


74 posted on 11/10/2007 5:34:10 PM PST by italianquaker (Is there anything Ron Paul doesn't blame the USA for?)
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To: AmericaUnited
I’ll bet a large amount of money that Giuliani will be the next POTUS. Note: That does not mean I think he’s the best choice
I wouldn't bet a large amount of money but I think that you're right. I'm beginning to think that it will be a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket.

75 posted on 11/10/2007 8:14:43 PM PST by DallasMike
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To: Plutarch

OK, that sounds very clever, but I can’t find the original it’s based upon.


76 posted on 11/10/2007 8:40:03 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Hawthorn

8. Maybe the bookies know why.

http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page


77 posted on 11/10/2007 8:43:55 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Blue Highway
More typical garbage, trying to put the nails in Fred’s coffin

Maybe Fred should throw away the coffin and get out there and fight. If there is no coffin (as you say there is) there'd be no need for nails.

I too would love to see somebody more conservative than Rudy.

78 posted on 11/10/2007 8:44:17 PM PST by tsowellfan (http://www.youtube.com/CafeNetAmerica)
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To: Romneyfor President2008

We should never underestimate the Fred campaign. Fred may appear weaker, but his following is stronger and more vocal than he is.
***Good point. Sun Tzu’s war principles dictate to appear weak when you’re strong and appear strong where you’re weak.


79 posted on 11/10/2007 8:45:19 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

Fred is most definitely my man. Rudy and Mitt are both liberals trying to hide what was pretty obvious before they started running for the Presidency. Huckabee likes to raise taxes and call people who are against giving amnesty to illegals bigots. McCain is . . . well McCain. And Hunter is a dream candidate who can’t get any traction.

Fred is a Federalist who has something to offer every coalition in the Republican Party. He’s for smaller government, a fiscal Conservative, a 100% pro-life voting record, a knock-out of a plan to stop illegal immigration and he’s likable even to people who aren’t political junkies like ourselves.

Fred is really the only hope we have of pulling us all together. Shoot, even some libertarians like Fred if The Cato Institute is any clue.

I still believe Fred’s star will rise and I’m not talking about in Hollywood. He is the leader that we need at such a time as this.


80 posted on 11/10/2007 8:49:14 PM PST by ilja
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