Posted on 11/10/2007 12:37:49 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah
Fred Thompson's campaign for president has collapsed.
Well, at least, among the bookies.
I've been giving readers regular updates on the betting in the presidential election, but absolutely nothing has been more dramatic this fall than Thompson's market meltdown. According to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets, the TV actor's chances of winning the GOP nomination have slumped in just six weeks from nearly 30% to less than 10%.
As recently as June, just after the former Senator announced he was running, he was the favorite in the betting, at nearly 40%.
The numbers are similar over at Dublin-based betting exchange InTrade. Thompson was at 35% in July. Today? 6%.
Credit the old Wall Street saw: Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news.
Before Thompson jumped into the race, conservative columnist George Will compared the anticipation to "Tulipmania." He questioned whether the Law & Order star really offered either the charisma, or the Mr. Conservative credentials, that his boosters claimed.
Maybe Thompson could never have matched the elevated expectations that greeted him. But his lackluster campaign and weak debate performances have brought him down to earth with a thump.
The betting now puts the Republican race between two people. The markets give Rudy Giuliani a 40% chance of winning the nomination, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney a 30% chance.
(Excerpt) Read more at thestreet.com ...
Sadly, everyone appears beguiled by Rudy's fast talking NYC style and Mitt Romney's immaculate suits and well-coiffed pate
To hell with the abundant evidence neither of them are who they are claiming to be today.Here we go again.
One wears a dress. blonde wig, fishnet hose and dances a chorus line. The other, if nothing else, is really good lookin’.
LOL. I am just being mean. Shame on me.
Organizations like Human Events ought to get out front for Duncan Hunter, a real conservative!
www.gohunter08.com
> I guess I’m just plain stupid, but will somebody please explain to me why Fred isn’t trouncing these as***les? <
I think Fred’s a good man, even though he’s not all that conservative.
There are probably multiple reasons for his disappointing performance to date:
1. Maybe he’s lazy.
2. Maybe he lacks “fire in the belly.”
3. Maybe he’s tired and exhausted because his cancer and his age have worn him down.
4. Maybe he’s a poor organizer.
5. Maybe he’s a poor manager.
6. Maybe his wife is running the campaign and isn’t very good at it.
7. Maybe he doesn’t really want the job.
The money almost never lies
If you're expecting the MSM,let alone the GOP party apparatus, to give any even remotely conservative candidate a fair shake in the primaries (not to mention general election) then you haven't been paying attention.
I think Mitt has to work harder and harder to get all these early states especially South Carolina. Both Rudy and Fred can afford a loss here and there, but Mitt can’t. We should never underestimate the Fred campaign. Fred may appear weaker, but his following is stronger and more vocal than he is. Because of his Hollywood connections and star power, the MSM will favor Fred.
Except when it’s wrong. Just like it was with the Dem nominee in 2004.
Because Conservatives are such heavy gamblers?
Let’s think about this for a minute or three, please . . .
Will wonders never cease? This is the first thing you've ever posted here that I agree with. :)
Great. When do they plan to start?
Until then, I just can't see the point in getting all worked up, threatening to leave the party and yelling at each other. In fact, I can't see the point even after the primaries.
CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG?
OK, I still would follow the $
I wouldn't bet a large amount of money but I think that you're right. I'm beginning to think that it will be a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket.
OK, that sounds very clever, but I can’t find the original it’s based upon.
Maybe Fred should throw away the coffin and get out there and fight. If there is no coffin (as you say there is) there'd be no need for nails.
I too would love to see somebody more conservative than Rudy.
We should never underestimate the Fred campaign. Fred may appear weaker, but his following is stronger and more vocal than he is.
***Good point. Sun Tzu’s war principles dictate to appear weak when you’re strong and appear strong where you’re weak.
Fred is most definitely my man. Rudy and Mitt are both liberals trying to hide what was pretty obvious before they started running for the Presidency. Huckabee likes to raise taxes and call people who are against giving amnesty to illegals bigots. McCain is . . . well McCain. And Hunter is a dream candidate who can’t get any traction.
Fred is a Federalist who has something to offer every coalition in the Republican Party. He’s for smaller government, a fiscal Conservative, a 100% pro-life voting record, a knock-out of a plan to stop illegal immigration and he’s likable even to people who aren’t political junkies like ourselves.
Fred is really the only hope we have of pulling us all together. Shoot, even some libertarians like Fred if The Cato Institute is any clue.
I still believe Fred’s star will rise and I’m not talking about in Hollywood. He is the leader that we need at such a time as this.
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