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I posted a vanity about Duncan Hunter and Intrade, and Pistolshot brought up some points about efficacy so I’m copying the post here.

(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1926032/posts?page=54#54

To: Kevmo; All
Intrade depends solely on those who play and do not constitute the vast majority who have either no idea how or want to participate. It is too easily manipulated by a very few. It may reflect a possible outcome, but it flies in the face of other well known polling organizations.
Even though Duncan is an honorable man, his campaign has failed from the begining. It is honorable not to ‘need consultants, or have people do work for you, or write your own speeches’, but the downside is you are too busy doing the small stuff to concentrate on the major stuff, like RUNNING for POTUS.

To that end, his campaign management has failed their man, and those of you who cannot see that are fighting a losing cause, as noble as that is, it is still a lost cause.

I know that pains you and the responses will be what they always are, childish and delusional. You will respond with all the failings of every other candidate just to make your self feel better and your guy look good, but only to you.

The truth, as painful as it is, is still the truth.

When the NRTL endorsed FDT earlier this week, the Mitt fans, Duncan supporters, Huckabee promoters, and Rudy ravers had a complete breakdown on this forum. More inconsequential, minor-league obscure articles appeared to try and promote ‘your’ candidate.

Face it. The NRTL endorsement is one of the biggest chips to have on your side of the table in this high stakes game.

Next for Fred will be the NRA endorsement, with it’s 6-7 MILLION members. And that will be a very big chip, indeed.

54 posted on 11/15/2007 6:00:40 AM PST by Pistolshot (Never argue with stupid people, they just bring you down to their level and beat you with experience)
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Intrade depends solely on those who play and do not constitute the vast majority who have either no idea how or want to participate. It is too easily manipulated by a very few. It may reflect a possible outcome, but it flies in the face of other well known polling organizations.
***Wrong on that one, as you can see by the article that this thread goes through. Intrade only has one bias: whether you can make money on trading the futures contract of a candidate. In that respect it has a negative bias against underdogs like Hunter because it is hard to sell the contract once you buy it and Intraders really value liquidity.

Even though Duncan is an honorable man, his campaign has failed from the begining.
***I see that sentiment that he is an honorable man a lot. He has respect. You can’t buy that no matter how much money you throw into the pot. His campaign has been frustratingly faltering in the polls — until lately when he started showing up at 4%. In that same time, Thompson’s campaign LOST 30 points at Intrade. Now that’s lousy campaigning.

It is honorable not to ‘need consultants, or have people do work for you, or write your own speeches’, but the downside is you are too busy doing the small stuff to concentrate on the major stuff, like RUNNING for POTUS.
***I agree, which is why we need to get some people on his side doing the small stuff. Back the best man during the primaries because character matters in the presidency — Clinton showed us that.

When you run a NATIONAL campaign, the objective is to get your message out to the people, not just in specific localities, but NATION-wide. And that takes people, and a management that understands what a NATIONAL campaign entails.
***Yup. And he’s running a national campaign and needs you and folks like you to help with it. Why back someone who has taken a gift of name recognition and turned it into a liability?

To that end, his campaign management has failed their man, and those of you who cannot see that are fighting a losing cause, as noble as that is, it is still a lost cause.
***It will be determined at the primaries. If anyone has lost the cause, it’s the guy who has lost poll numbers and 30 intrade points.

There will be those who say... “it’s a conspiracy’....”the powers that be are not letting Duncan get his message out”......”the MSM is in cahoots with the Bush administration to muzzle Hunter” No matter that the MSM hates GWB, and there is no basis for them to even be in the same room.
***Yes, there will be those who say that. And that is what needs to be overcome for my candidate. But my strategy uses that fact as an ASSET rather than a LIABILITY.

The truth, as painful as it is, is still the truth.
***I agree. And we shall see.

Face it. The NRTL endorsement is one of the biggest chips to have on your side of the table in this high stakes game.
***I do face it and I think you are right. But that doesn’t mean the NRTL is right. They made a political calculation and it could backfire on them.

Next for Fred will be the NRA endorsement, with it’s 6-7 MILLION members. And that will be a very big chip, indeed.
***Again you would be right. That doesn’t mean the NRA would be right. Again it could backfire.