Intrade depends solely on those who play and do not constitute the vast majority who have either no idea how or want to participate. It is too easily manipulated by a very few. It may reflect a possible outcome, but it flies in the face of other well known polling organizations.
***Wrong on that one, as you can see by the article that this thread goes through. Intrade only has one bias: whether you can make money on trading the futures contract of a candidate. In that respect it has a negative bias against underdogs like Hunter because it is hard to sell the contract once you buy it and Intraders really value liquidity.
Even though Duncan is an honorable man, his campaign has failed from the begining.
***I see that sentiment that he is an honorable man a lot. He has respect. You can’t buy that no matter how much money you throw into the pot. His campaign has been frustratingly faltering in the polls — until lately when he started showing up at 4%. In that same time, Thompson’s campaign LOST 30 points at Intrade. Now that’s lousy campaigning.
It is honorable not to ‘need consultants, or have people do work for you, or write your own speeches’, but the downside is you are too busy doing the small stuff to concentrate on the major stuff, like RUNNING for POTUS.
***I agree, which is why we need to get some people on his side doing the small stuff. Back the best man during the primaries because character matters in the presidency — Clinton showed us that.
When you run a NATIONAL campaign, the objective is to get your message out to the people, not just in specific localities, but NATION-wide. And that takes people, and a management that understands what a NATIONAL campaign entails.
***Yup. And he’s running a national campaign and needs you and folks like you to help with it. Why back someone who has taken a gift of name recognition and turned it into a liability?
To that end, his campaign management has failed their man, and those of you who cannot see that are fighting a losing cause, as noble as that is, it is still a lost cause.
***It will be determined at the primaries. If anyone has lost the cause, it’s the guy who has lost poll numbers and 30 intrade points.
I know that pains you and the responses will be what they always are, childish and delusional. You will respond with all the failings of every other candidate just to make your self feel better and your guy look good, but only to you.
***We shall see. Thanks for bumping the thread.
There will be those who say... “it’s a conspiracy’....”the powers that be are not letting Duncan get his message out”......”the MSM is in cahoots with the Bush administration to muzzle Hunter” No matter that the MSM hates GWB, and there is no basis for them to even be in the same room.
***Yes, there will be those who say that. And that is what needs to be overcome for my candidate. But my strategy uses that fact as an ASSET rather than a LIABILITY.
The truth, as painful as it is, is still the truth.
***I agree. And we shall see.
When the NRTL endorsed FDT earlier this week, the Mitt fans, Duncan supporters, Huckabee promoters, and Rudy ravers had a complete breakdown on this forum. More inconsequential, minor-league obscure articles appeared to try and promote ‘your’ candidate.
***I didn’t have a breakdown. I congratulated the Fred supporters on their obvious coup.
Face it. The NRTL endorsement is one of the biggest chips to have on your side of the table in this high stakes game.
***I do face it and I think you are right. But that doesn’t mean the NRTL is right. They made a political calculation and it could backfire on them.
Next for Fred will be the NRA endorsement, with it’s 6-7 MILLION members. And that will be a very big chip, indeed.
***Again you would be right. That doesn’t mean the NRA would be right. Again it could backfire.
Say for example there are 100 conservative voters trading. 60 of them are Duncan supporters, 20 of them for Fred, 20 of them spread among the others.
The stock in Duncan is inflated artificially because the shares available are all bought and garnered by his supporters. Each is looking for a bargain to purchase any loose shares out there, creating a high demand/high price.
Now, the Fred supporters and the also-rans, are very few for the available shares, that means the price deflates as there is a glut of shares to purchase. And that is because not many other supporters care or want to take the time to play in Intrade.
It's a false-positive. It shows there is a desperation in the Duncan supporters to show their guy 'winning' somewhere. It doesn't hold water across the nation or in the national polls. And if Intrade had ANY influence, we'd see more activity in areas not controlled by the MSM, like the Internet. And that isn't happening either.
Sorry, the truth is still the truth.
You can promote Intrade as THE source of record, but if there is not universal participation by a vast majority, it is only another dog and pony show that can be manipulated.