Posted on 11/08/2007 6:25:59 AM PST by RSmithOpt
I predict the DOW will vary in its level.
DJIA down 111 now. If this keep up it will be worth $5 by Christmas.
That means your economy has some severe problems and is circling the drain.
If we can get our debt down to a more reasonable level, we lessen the risk any foreign dumping would spike our interest rates and crash the economy, as drying up the debt supply would offset that. With that threat lifted, the dollar can float a little more comfortably.
A lower dollar would breath life into exports. That would take pressure off consumption, meaning if people would live within their means, we could reduce consumption and not crash the economy, especially took some of their budget surpluses and cut taxes.
Productivity gains in particular would keep inflation down so we don’t paper over our debts. That’s the cool thing about economics, if you have the fortitude a nation can dig itself out of a hole.
BTW, they’re pounding the crap out of the market trying to sell it down. As of now bid/ask volume is nearly 2-1 over tick volume, indicating that though selling they aren’t moving the market much. Volume has jumped in the last hour but not spectacular for the day, mostly there’s a lack of buying rather than big selling.
But, we have broken trendlines and the 50% retracement level, which tilts us bearish, we’ll see how much we’ll retrace.
Large hedge fund managers that have gone short on some stocks but, in the wrong sectors with the average mutual fund manager and individual investor sitting tight?
FTW, I bailed 2 months ago in a 401K mutual (1/4 of the total amount was invested in that fund) that was heavily weighted in financials. The very ones (top kicked dogs) that are in the news and that group even has my mortgage....funny. But, appears I timed it, made OK money in 2 years and rebalanced that to international mutual fund and bonds.
I'm pretty much ignorant with the techs of market movements (commodities too), but when looking at 10 year charts for the major indices in the past, I noticed a pattern on the volumes before the bulls and bears started running....I have to agree now with your comment:
"But, we have broken trendlines and the 50% retracement level, which tilts us bearish, we’ll see how much we’ll retrace"
I think our Central Bank, the IMF, etc., that are obligated to the concerns of governments and global economy are working behind close doors to soften the slide for the US economy.
I wish my company's 401K had funds for basic commodity sectors, like energy and metals funds, whatever.
Well, true. But keep in mind that the U.S. dollar is trading about 40% lower (if not more) against many of these currencies than it was a few years ago. Foreign investors have no problem investing in the U.S. these days, but they are basically demanding a huge discount on their purchases.
NYSE will be closed after 3,000 point circuit breaker violated to the downside.
The market climbs a wall of worry......
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