Posted on 11/07/2007 3:15:35 AM PST by DoughtyOne
Thanks for your comments.
I’m with you bud. There are people out there that this doesn’t matter to, but then that’s their choice I suppose.
I appreciate the post.
“How big a fraction of the national electorate do YOU believe the base is?”
Define “base.” Base of what?
If Thompson were to crash and burn, and I don’t think that will happen, then I’d probably gravitate to Hunter,
***I think he is crashing and burning.
Over at Intrade, Fred has been dropping like a rock. From 35% down to 5.5%, considerably below Huckabee & McCain.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=462622&z=1194474228503
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 5.7 6.4 5.5 91924 -1.9
Also, Fred has a contract for dropout, last price was 5%, current ask is 40%. There is no dropout contract for Hunter.
Dropouts from 2008 Presidential Race
DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 1.0 40.0 5.0 0 0
The forum at Intrade has some reasonable explanations and conjecture for this “Fredfall”.
I am not one to argue against facts, bout I will say that Fred Thompson is a great buy at intrade at this kind of price.
The reason there is no dropout contract for Hunter is that there is no uncertainty about this outcome.
The reason there is no dropout contract for Hunter is that there is no uncertainty about this outcome.
***Interesting take, and a good point. What I don’t understand is why all the candidates don’t have dropout contracts when they’re first opened. Tommy Thompson, Brownback both would have paid off and you could guage the efficiency of the market. I thought Hunter would be a bargain at 0.1% but his numbers do not move, so it would be a long term play. Recently, the Intrade market was quite accurate in predicting the Ron Paul upswing, and it was also accurate in 2006 for being the first indicator that there was a problem in the election for Republicans. I’m still not completely sold on it as a utility but it appears to be more accurate than modern MSM-biased polls.
I love Hunter but when the time comes he goes to Thompson’s camp.
Ya’ll can remind me if I’m wrong.
I’m making note of it now... heh heh heh...
I’m not betting against your take on it.
Putting your money where your mouth is is a kind of truth serum. I give these markets like intrade a lot of credibility, not necessarilky as predictors, but certainly as barometers of where things stand, and as trend indicators, and Fred Thompson has certainly beeen a bear market of late.
Now that he is better engaged on the campaign trail, I expect him to trend back up. His early support is still there and can be re-won.
“Mirror image policy with regard to trade” - excellent, excellent term!!!
With you on everything else.
Putting your money where your mouth is is a kind of truth serum.
***Again another interesting comment. I was thinking a few days ago that Ron Paul trading in the 9’s was just nuts, that the Paulestinians had invaded Intrade and there could be a way to make money off of them by shorting just before the primary. But his ability to pull in $4M in one day surprised me. Also, if I was thinking the same thing there must be dozens of others who thought likewise and this has a way of countering the tendencies of some candidate or his followers to try and astroturf the market. So it has its own self-correcting mechanisms, unlike biased MSM polls.
There is no doubt that Rudy is a patriot. All the GOP field is definitely such, even Ron Paul. But the same can be said for many democrats (though certainly not all).
The problem for Rudy is his lack of conservatism. Patriotism alone does not make for good decisions. Understanding the constitution helps, and Rudy has never understood the 2nd Amendment and has trouble with the 4th and 5th Amendments as well. Top that off with a lifetime of cheerleding, not just supporting, but cheerleading, for abortion and illegal aliens and hate crimes laws and what you end up with is, maybe, a fiscally conservative liberal.
Works for me.
“HUNTER IS A GREAT MAN”....Laura Ingraham 11/07/07
In 9 years Hunter will be 5 years younger than Ron Paul is now.
And there's what's difficult to put up with. Every time Fred's record or words are posted, it's a 'dump'? What annoys Hunter supporters is that some insist that we support someone without looking at their past words and records. And Huckabee is getting his just deserts by most of us, so that won't fly.
I didn’t realize that. Thank you.
I agree completely. But they were going to shove amnesty down our throats, too and they haven't managed that yet. McCAin has even had a conversion. They need to hear more from the 'loud people'.
I don’t mind, in fact I support bonified posts about people’s records. What does bother me considerably, is the posting of articles with dramatic headlines that simply are not substantiated in the body of the report. I saw one against Fred the other day that was rediculous.
We need to be aware of our canidates records and views. I do wish some folks would use a little better judgement about what they post and what extrapolations they make from those posts.
I don’t have any reason to suggest you’re doing anything that I would not approve of, so don’t take this wrong.
Thanks for the post.
I'm sorry to hear that. I missed it. News needs to stand on it's own and changing titles is never a good idea.
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