Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Rasmussen ^ | November 1, 2007 | Rasmussen

[eastsider]

In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, Rudy Giuliani remains on top but Fred Thompson has fallen back to essentially a second place tie with Mitt Romney and John McCain. Among Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide, Giuliani is preferred by 24% while Thompson is the first choice for 15%. Romney and McCain are at 14% while Mike Huckabee has dropped a couple of points back to 10%. No other Republican attracts more than 3% support (see recent daily numbers).

[eastsider]

Over the past 16 days, FDT's numbers have been slipping an average of about 0.5% per day. Today's poll show them slipping faster than that average -- they're down 2% from yesterday's numbers.

His appearance this Sunday on Meet the Press should help stanch the bleeding.

[Clintons Are White Trash]

I’m thinking the same thing - he needs more PR!!

[Reagan Man]

The only real change over the last 16 days, is that Mike Huckabee`s support level has began a slowly pick up. Something no one anticipated. Social conservatives are making the move to Huckabee.

Time for some serious conservative propaganda from the Thompson campaign.

Go Fred go!

[eastsider]

I think Spiff’s graph of the Rasmussen numbers, if he’ll be kind enough to post them, will show that Fred’s numbers are back to the level they were before he announced.

[prairiebreeze]

So would some advertising. Wonder when we’ll see that?

[Reagan Man]

When Fred made his candidacy official back on Sept 6th., he was at 22%-23%. He’s at 15% today. The Rasmussen trend for Fred during October has indicated a loss of support. While Huckabee’s support has been moving upwards. The question is, will this trend continue.

Lets keep our eye on the ball.

[eastsider]

Advertising for the primaries generally begins after Election Day, so as not to confuse the voters.

[Spiff]

I think Spiff’s graph of the Rasmussen numbers, if he’ll be kind enough to post them, will show that Fred’s numbers are back to the level they were before he announced.

I post the graphs on my profile page so that people can check them any time. I update them daily.

For Rasmussen, my graph goes back to 9/5/07 which is before Fred announced. It shows a post-announcement high of 28% for Thompson. His current numbers from Rasmussen are little over half of that. He's at 15% as of the latest Rasmussen (11/1/07), his lowest point since Rasmussen started posting their poll results for him (7/16/07) According to this latest poll, Thompson is now only 1 point above Romney who may overtake him soon. The last week has seen a drop of 4 points Thompson and a rise of 4 points for Romney.

McCain lost 4 points, but regained 3 of them today showing a loss of 1 point over the week. Huckabee rose to 13%, but he's back down to 10% already - his debate bounce having subsided already. He'll be back into the single digits soon.

[ClarenceThomasfan]

Wow Fred is really tanking. The GOP nominee will either be Rudy, Mitt or maybe darkhorse Huckabee.

[Spiff]

Wow Fred is really tanking. The GOP nominee will either be Rudy, Mitt or maybe darkhorse Huckabee.

Fred is tanking.

Huckabee's days are numbered. He lacks the money and campaign organization to do much of anything. Already, his debate bounce has faded. Don't put any stock in him.

[eastsider]

Thanks for setting me straight about Fred's pre-announcement numbers -- the Rasmussen chart only shows the numbers for October. And I also notice that I was wrong when I stated that FDT was down 2% since yesterday -- it's just 1%.

What bothers me about attributing FDT's falling numbers to Huckabee's rising numbers is what we're seeing today, where Fred's down since yesterday (16% to 15%), but so is Huckabee (12% to 10%). Meanwhile, McCain jumps from 11% to 14%. Then again, it's ridiculous to jump to conclusions based on a one-day sampling.

But I still do see a steady decline in FDT's numbers since October 15, from 23% then to 15% today. I would characterize a loss of 1/3 of his support as a real change.

[Tall_Texan]

I don’t know that MTP will help Thompson at all. The only ones who watch it are political junkies, most of whom are already plugged in and many have already formed an opinion about him.

I think these polls are going to be irrelevant once Iowa and New Hampshire come in. If Romney maintains his lead in both (another “if” since the pre-primary polls are often wrong, ask Howard Dean), I think the money, support and poll numbers will follow.

If Huckabee finishes strong in Iowa, I think he supplants Thompson as the “conservative alternative” and may pick up steam in South Carolina and Florida.

I’m still undecided but, reading the tea leaves, I see conservative support coming together behind one man that will overwhelm Rudy as the primary season evolves. The question is whether that man is Fred, Mitt or Mike. I only hope it’s not McCain or we’re all doomed.

[eastsider]

Thanks for posting the graph, as well as for the heads up that you post it on your homepage.

FWIW, my money's still on Fred, but the Rasmussen trend is unsettling.

[karnage]

Maybe. But so far, the more people see of Fred, the more he does not gain momentum.

[John D]

No other Republican attracts more than 3% support

What about Ron Paul, I thought he was surging. Oh, this isn't another internet poll, I see.

[eastsider]

From my point of view, I don’t think they’ve seen enough. Most of October was spent fundraising, which is not the same as campaigning, and his ‘debate’ appearances don’t appear either to have helped him or hurt him.

[eastsider]

Ron Paul is surging! Quick, put on your boots!!!

[kabar]

I believe we are going to have a brokered convention. Giuliani will not get beyond about 25% of the party, which means that the other 75% will determine who will be the nominee.

[Reagan Man]

I like Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll. But no poll, including Rasmussen, should be viewed as anything more than a snapshot in time. Polling trends, however, do offer a more extended view. And in October, support for Fred is down, while support for Huckabee is up.

Support for the other candidates haven’t really made any siginificant shifts, up or down, per Rasmussen. As I said, I don’t believe anyone saw this upshift towards Huckabee coming.

[karnage]

It’s still pretty early in the campaign. Fred can catch fire. But he better start rubbing some sticks together...